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Customer Review

on 25 November 2012
Silver has some good ideas, and he is to be commended for scruplously footnoting his references, but there are some mistakes (the "cows would rate this" was from an S&P analyst,not Moody's) and he utilises heuristics he criticises elsewhere (lazily claiming the industrial revolution happened, just like that, in 1775 with the excuse "it is a nice round number").

My two main criticisms for non Americna readers is that it is quite US centric (I don't care about baseball, and the general moneyball story is impossible to avoid) and the main philosophical stuff (which was most useful and ineresting to me) makes up a small portion of the book, the majority with various examples where he makes the same arguments with interview of different people that are somewhat non-questioning.

He gives some useful examples throughout the book, covering meteorology, earthquakes, transmision of viruses, but it still feels as if it could have been cut. The stuff on Bayes is interetsing but really skates over the issue of how you come up with a Bayesian prior when you can't iteratively improve them because you do not have many data points. Given the time he spends looking at the financial crisis, this is a flaw as it reduces the "wow, Bayes is really useful" impact when it cannot offer that much resolution to the problem of predicting economic and financial crises, the key predictive failure he cites.

Even so, as a way of getting people to think a bit more deeply about what it is to make a prediction and how to know if it was well constructed, and how to integrate concepts of epistemology, it is a useful introductory book.
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3.9 out of 5 stars
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3.9 out of 5 stars
£25.00+ Free shipping with Amazon Prime