6 of 7 people found the following review helpful
I'm 90% Sure I only understood about 30% of this!,
Verified Purchase(What is this?)
This review is from: Risk Intelligence: How to Live with Uncertainty (Paperback)
The main idea behind the book seems to be to introduce / promote the concept of Risk Intelligence as measured by RQ - a sort of IQ - that measures your ability to deal with uncertainty. It is possible to get a value for your RQ either by visiting a website or by completing a series of questions listed in appendix 1 (I got an RQ of 61 when I did the on-line test - which apparently is about average).
Unfortunately, I am still somewhat bemused as to how one's ability to extract information from situations that lie somewhere between the absolutely certain and the completely unknowable, can be determined by a test that is based on general knowledge questions. My doubts are increased by the data presented in appendix 2 - which shows the relationship between general knowledge and predictive capability (as measured by a prediction game where the participant's predictions of a number of events, were actually compared with how the events subsequently turned out). The graph represents a knitting needle in a snow storm (i.e. a poor correlation between the two - as indicated by the correlation coeff of 0.185). It may well be that the correlation is statistically significant but that doesn't make it of practical use.
On the plus side - I did manage to finish the book and there were a number of interesting and possibly useful ideas e.g. the concept of "expected utility", "Unknown knowns" and "Fermi Questions" - but in the main I had come across many of the other points in previous texts such a "The Madness of Crowds" and "Risk" (by Dan Gardner.
When I bought this book there were no reviews to guide me - the main reason why I felt this might be of use to other would-be buyers (given that there are still only a few reviews).