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Customer Review

9 of 11 people found the following review helpful
2.0 out of 5 stars new new new! or maybe not, 25 Sept. 2012
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This review is from: Risk Intelligence: How to Live with Uncertainty (Paperback)
This is a quite interesting book on risk. It deals mainly with "closed world" probabilities and struggles with open ended questions, those "unknown unknowns" that Donald Rumsfeld famously didn't know.

It's worth pointing out that Dylan Evans did not invent Bayes Theorem, but reverend Bayes did. And Bayes is no use if you do not have even speculative probabilities to plug into the formula. The theorem is arithmetically complicated (I defy any ordinary person to do it in their head) but somehow we have survived despite having to make probabilistic decisions ever since we were on the African savannah.

Like its mirror image "The Black Swan" this book is disfigured by its smug and condescending tone. Search elsewhere is my advice, I'd give you a 90% chance of finding something better.
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