Top positive review
Recommended for anyone interested in forecasting
3 December 2016
"Experts are about as accurate as chimps when predicting the future". This tidbit, so often mentioned when discussing (or dismissing) expert opinion or predictions, originates from the research of Mr. Tetlock on Expert Political Judgement. A natural next step was figuring out if anyone could reliably answer questions about the not so distant future and the result was the Good Judgment Project. The main results are detailed in this book, there indeed exists a group of super-forecasters who manage to constantly out-predict the chimps and experts in the intelligence community. The book describes some of the characteristics of a super-forecaster. Not surprisingly they are, in general, good with numbers and ingest a lot of information. They tend to be slow thinkers, in the sense of Kahneman, and at least in some cases not as much affected by cognitive biases. Super-forecasters, however, are not super-human. Forecasting is a skill that can be learnt or improved.