The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disaster Hardcover – 27 Nov 2014

I read this book just after Reading World Order by Henry Kissinger. Kissinger's book covers the current challenges of the geopolitical landscape, outlining above all the historical and cultural context in which the US and other major powers find themselves. Well, this book offers a similar analysis of the current scene, but although not exclusively, it's main focus is on the geographical, military and some other aspects, mostly the physical resources which define the sources and limits of power for major countries. In the author's view, the US, with unequalled geographic and physical resources is the country which calls the shots in the modern world. The real game-changer is the recent discovery of shale oil in the US wich will give it energy Independence, and will reduce the need for protecting the world's major sea-lanes necessary for world trade to prosper. Up to now it has been in the interest of the US to promote and protect world trade, but that is no longer the case. This means that many countries with lesser resouces as the US ( e.g. Germany, China ) will face serious challenges in retaining their power without the backing of the US navy and enforcement of order. The author points out the countries most vulnerable under the expected new regime, and their alternatives. While I certainly found the book great reading and full of interesting facts and figures, I felt it a little too one-dimensional: i.e. too reliant on geographical, economic, dempographic and physical resources to explain the potential evolution of modern geopolitics. This view is rather deterministic: as if these factors would logically induce countries to act according to their existing natural strengths without other considerations. The historical and cultural aspects stressed by Kissinger, as well as the capacity for shifting alliances, treaties and use of "soft power" ( which the US also posseses abundantly ) . The book also gives little place to the role of modern technology in shaping the world. I am doubtful about the central tenet of Keizan's thesis: that the US would withdraw significantly from policing the major sea-lanes. Even if self-sufficient in almost everything, the US needs to maintain a strong presence everywhere. Kissinger in his book stresses that if the US does not do this it could easily end up as a big island off Eurasia, with little influence in shaping events outside its sphere.and which sooner or later would have serious reverberations on the North-American continent. Having said this, the book is still very good: it brings to light many basic aspects of geography and resources which we usually don't think about in the age of intercontinental ballistic missiles, hi-tech weapons and space exploration, but which are still hugely important in shaping the world. Also, the author manages to build up a very convincing picture of the potential unfolding of the world over the coming decades if countries act according to their geography, their demographic, physical and economic resources, above all, if the US removes its protection of free trade. These factors will bestow unusual power on some, especally the US, and reveal serious vulnerabilities in others, especially countries whose prowess we today consider almost unassailable.

Overall I enjoyed reading this book.

It gives a fairly complete survey of different regions of the world in terms of traditional geopolitical views: geography, resource availability, competition of resources, and demographic. It gives a fairly concise description of different regions from both historical and current perspectives.

While I agree with the author that USA is in an enviable position going forward, I found the author's view of the rest of the world is too pessimistic.
The book ignores the advance of sciences and technology, rise of social networking, rise of education levels around the world, mobility of migrant workers and contributions of worldly organizations, GO and NGO included. These factors matter a lot in human evolution and world development. Who would have thought building a world class city in a desert region like Dubai two to three decades ago? Who would have thought extracting drinking water from sea water economically feasible not long ago? Who would have thought solar energy is economically viable not long ago? With these advances, it is not too far fetched to see regions once considered inhabitable and disadvantaged becomes habitable and advantaged.

The raw, natural, unique geographical potential of the US been, perhaps, hardly noticed and in this early 21st century we can see that is barely realized. The US emerged from WW2 as the only standing power of the age and an accident of circumstance to rebuild the world. Without much notice or aplomb, the accident turned real and changed the world as we know it at 1944 Bretton Woods. Zeihan's premise is that the US has seemed to mature beyond its needy detractors and lukewarm allies and might reconsider the strategic US role in the world away from the position of an active enforcer of global institutions. Zeihan's premise is that we can do better for ourselves without a whole lot of effort. Such an imagining has been inconceivable since the US has been an energy importer. The US must invest insane volumes of national capital to defend the worlds free market resource and energy flows. But that's changed in such fundamental ways that we might reconsider it all and change the century for much better. Zeihan explores discarding WW2's promulgated political maps and considers the world from a space station vantaged eye view.

Zeihan provides a sage, quantifiable grand tour of where that future is peeking through. Everyone can see that there's something different in the air for better or worse. Most recently, we have the huge discount at the gas pump. The global hierarchy is stressed. Strange things are happening in distant places and here in the US. The dynamics of current changes in the geopolitical construct will fill the future history of this century.

Zeihan is an excellent, logical writer. He masterfully knits the pieces of his thesis into an enjoyable coherence. The historical evidence and critical variables are exercised on the grand scale ... geography, politics, human patterns, resources, fundamental `money'/'wealth' and simple luck.

"Accidental Super Power" pulls the reader through the looking glass and out of the comfort zone to consider the way forward ... a better way ... different for sure. For this reader's part, the relevant factors of the past are well framed. The exploration of the future is rooted in the accidental genius of Bretton Woods that would stand for 70 years. Everything geopolitical that living men have experienced is anchored to that 1944 event. The world simply has no experience on a global socio-economic existence without the Bretton Woods rules. So stunning was the outcome, Zeihan posits that Bretton Woods seems to have induced a 70 year coma over heavey weight geopolitics. The world is restless 'confined' by the construct of a world frozen the in place since WW2.

The economic demands of competing big players are stressing Bretton Woods. The US, for its part, is effectually easing out the leadership mantle repelled by its extraordinary costs. Zeihan delves into an America weary of intervening and policing.

The US has been bound in the past 50 years by energy dependence on extorting oil `haves'. American oil and potential independence heralds an American exit opportunity from the troublesome web of pent-up geopolitics and ideologies among rebellious, unlikable oil powers. America's strategic need to spend blood and capital resolving other people's problems to keep shipping lanes and chokepoints free might be over for a very long time with US oil independence

You can read your own political worldview into Zeihan's treatise and decide the credibility for yourself. It's a great work of connecting the dots. The book will challenge every reader's basic premises and constructs.

Anyway, you're lucky as all get-out for being born in America. 5-star ... one of the best I've read in a long. It's an important book.

Peter Zeihan comes out of Stratfor. Stratfor looks at geopolitics first by looking at geography, the "geo" part of geopolitics. Zeihan adopts the view that geography deeply affects political bodies and geography either can't be changed or can't be easily changed. He lays out a historical argument for the effect of geography on the wealth of nations in his first three chapters. If you accept his argument, you may want to skip these three chapters.

The author adds in a generous dose of demography, another factor which can't be easily changed, to his analysis of the United States and the world generally. If you're looking for an analysis that considers ISIS, or the effect of the Federal Reserve and other central banks on world events, you should look elsewhere. If your view of geopolitics has the US in terminal decline and China as the new world hegemon, then you will probably view the author's thesis as totally wrong or, at the very least, deeply disturbing. I'm not sure that I accept his argument entirely. Despite having numerous geographic and demographic trends going the United States' way, which the author describes in detail, I do not underestimate the capacity of societies to foul their nests.

Nevertheless, the author adumbrates the wealth of rivers, ports, fertile soil, ease of transportation, and other natural features possessed by the US that adds to its wealth. I know, some of you are saying to yourselves, but this wealth is concentrated in the hands of the few (see my comment above). Once again, if your worldview is largely fixated on 1%/99% dichotomy, the book will not be helpful. If you want facts on how the US stacks up against the rest of the world on potentially beneficial geographic features and demographic waves, then the book will be useful. I know, some of you are saying that California is suffering from a terrible drought, which probably will have an adverse impact on food production in the US and the author considers California only very briefly. Once again, if your looking for a book on global warming/climate change, you should look elsewhere.

Because of immigration, the demography of the US has a far better trend line than that which exists in many other countries. In the author's view, for instance, Japan simply cannot recover from its demographic decline. Russia, too, has a limited time to play a major role because of its population decline. My age cohort, the Baby Boomers, will adversely affect US economic prospects for a couple of decades to come, before we pass from the scene. However, younger cohorts, augmented by immigration, should be able to continue to realize the economic opportunities afforded by North America.

Mr. Zeihan looks at other parts of the globe as well for the geographic and demographic opportunities and challenges, which they face. I was not surprised that Europe faces severe demographic constraints. While I will not be alive at the time, it would not surprise me if much of Europe was majority Muslim in 50 years. Mr. Zeihan remarks that, for some countries, they "forgot how to make babies in 1965." Some countries are now trying to erase this forgetfulness and encourage, through tax breaks, subsidies, and other means, their youth to remember how to make, for instance, Danish babies.

I was surprised by the author's pessimistic view of Canada. Once again, geography in mountains and rivers can serve to connect and divide a country. His view is that the parts of Canada are more connected to the US than to each other. Mexico, because of mountains and the general absence of navigable rivers, is, in Mr. Zeihan's view, largely ungovernable by a central government. H

The book looks at China as well and its demography makes it less potent than is generally perceived. Once again, the book does not consider current political events in China as the author views political events as potentially important, but less permanent in its effect than geography and demography.

I recommend the book highly. I'm always looking for new viewpoints and Mr. Zeihan certainly delivers.

I have recommended this book to several people after it was recommended to me by several others. This book was written a few years ago and with each passing day the authors predictions about the world seem to be more and more true. The impacts of geography on our governments and cultures are huge and few people take the time to look at the influence of these factors on our current world. Then factor in demographics and financial markets and the picture gets even more clear. Personally, I'm a huge proponent of international trade and fascinated by the interconnectedness of our world. But taking a break from today and looking at the past century or two really puts the current global market and system of trade into prospective. The book is well written and easy to follow. One person I recommended this book to reads a book every 4-5 years and he loved this book!