- Hardcover: 336 pages
- Publisher: Allen Lane (4 Mar. 1999)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0713992727
- ISBN-13: 978-0713992724
- Product Dimensions: 16.3 x 3.1 x 24.2 cm
- Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 1,338,740 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- See Complete Table of Contents
Debt and Delusion: Central Bank Follies That Threaten Economic Disaster Hardcover – 4 Mar 1999
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Top Customer Reviews
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The author cites various milestones in the development of the modern system and its evolution to where it is now. And, then he gets into various "what if's."
Consider this quote from the book on page 83: "The global capital market allows a loan to be originated in Manila, funded in Spain, serviced in New York and held in the portfolio of a Swedish pension fund."
Then, consider the following quote from the Wall Street Journal on-line edition of Dec. 27, 2008: "The Isle That Rattled the World:" 'Tiny Iceland Created a Vast Bubble, Leaving Wreckage Everywhere When It Popped' by Charles Forelle:
"...Iceland is an extreme casualty of an era in which it became extraordinarily easy to borrow money. But it was more than that: An examination of the nation's banking system, which collapsed over about 10 days this autumn, reveals the degree to which Iceland was one of the international financial bubble's most enthusiastic players. Home to fewer people than Wichita, Kan., Iceland became so leveraged and so deeply intertwined with the global financial infrastructure that its collapse has rattled the world from Tokyo to California to the Middle East.
In Japan and Hong Kong, bond buyers got stuck holding all-but-worthless debt. In Beverly Hills, a real-estate developer was forced to default after teaming up with an Icelandic bank to build condos near Wilshire Boulevard. A German regional lender, Bayerische Landesbank, suffered big losses on its Icelandic investments contributing to its need for a €30 billion ($42 billion) bailout package..."
The Iceland banks collapsed over the weekend of September 27-28, 2008. On Friday, Sept. 26, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had closed at 11,143.13. When the news of the Iceland banks collapse ran in the Wall Street Journal of Monday, Sept. 29, the Dow Jones fell 777.68 pts in that one day. The Friday before the December article, above, was written (12-26-08), the Dow had closed at 8,515.55.
However, the book should not be considered an "investment book." It was written to warn of the untenable situation that the world's financial structure had progressed to. [People can draw their own investment conclusions.]
While history doesn't record Cassandra having gotten any "thank yous" for her predictions, we can thank Peter Warburton for his underestandable presentation, his analysis, and his prescience.
GB, Castro Valley, CA
The accuracy of this book is unbelievable. This mess all started in the USA at the beginning of the Vietnam war along with Lyndon Johnson's social programs, the so called, guns & butter policy. It didn't take Europe long to learn the way of the Americans & of course, Japan followed suit in the early 1990s. I believe that the US real estate bubble of 2003-2006 was manufactured by loose regulation of lending standards & negative real interest rates along with the corporate propaganda in encouraging people to borrow money to purchase houses & mass psychology. Mr Warburton predicted that this debt bubble would of burst around 1999-2003. I believe he was wrong in his timing only due to the real estate bubble & since 2008, the US federal government's hard-core abuse of fiscal policy.
I don't understand why more people did not recognise this bubble back in the 1990s. We have been misinformed & manipulated by central bankers, bankers, PR/Marketing gurus & politicians. There will be hard-core negative ramifications to this excessive debt accumulation, it's only a question of time. I do not care what Keynesian economists say, this is a predicament.
This book outlines all the events that have taken place, including corporate efficieny gains, interest rate movements, interest rate spreads, whether inflation is beneficial or not, the bloating of the credit markets, financial sophistication & miscalculation of risk, amongst others. A must read for those that are interested in this topic. Timing is illusive, however that which is unsustainable will not last & I can't see this can kicking down the road lasting any longer than 2023. Thank you Mr Warburton for your contribution to this field.