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Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters Hardcover – 13 May 2021

4.7 out of 5 stars 5,051 ratings

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WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER

2022 IPPY AWARDS GOLD MEDALIST — SCIENCE

NATIONAL INDIE EXCELLENCE AWARDS FINALIST — POLITICAL

2021 WORLD MAGAZINE ACCESSIBLE SCIENCE BOOK OF THE YEAR — HONORABLE MENTION

"
Unsettled is a remarkable book—probably the best book on climate change for the intelligent layperson—that achieves the feat of conveying complex information clearly and in depth." —Claremont Review of Books

“[
Unsettled] is no polemic. It’s a plea for understanding how scientists extract clarity from complexity.” — Wall Street Journal

"Surging sea levels are inundating the coasts."

"Hurricanes and tornadoes are becoming fiercer and more frequent."

"Climate change will be an economic disaster."

You've heard all this presented as fact. But according to science, all of these statements are profoundly misleading.

When it comes to climate change, the media, politicians, and other prominent voices have declared that "the science is settled." In reality, the long game of telephone from research to reports to the popular media is corrupted by misunderstanding and misinformation. Core questions—about the way the climate is responding to our influence, and what the impacts will be—remain largely unanswered. The climate
is changing, but the why and how aren't as clear as you've probably been led to believe.

Now, one of America's most distinguished scientists is clearing away the fog to explain what science really says (and doesn't say) about our changing climate. In
Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters, Steven Koonin draws upon his decades of experience—including as a top science advisor to the Obama administration—to provide up-to-date insights and expert perspective free from political agendas.

Fascinating, clear-headed, and full of surprises, this book gives readers the tools to both understand the climate issue and be savvier consumers of science media in general. Koonin takes readers behind the headlines to the more nuanced science itself, showing us where it comes from and guiding us through the implications of the evidence. He dispels popular myths and unveils little-known truths: despite a dramatic rise in greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures actually
decreased from 1940 to 1970. What's more, the models we use to predict the future aren't able to accurately describe the climate of the past, suggesting they are deeply flawed.

Koonin also tackles society's response to a changing climate, using data-driven analysis to explain why many proposed "solutions" would be ineffective, and discussing how alternatives like adaptation and, if necessary, geoengineering will ensure humanity continues to prosper.
Unsettled is a reality check buoyed by hope, offering the truth about climate science that you aren't getting elsewhere—what we know, what we don't, and what it all means for our future.

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Review

"We have too many global warming books--but this one is needed. Steven Koonin has the credentials, expertise, and experience to ask the right questions and to give realistic answers."

--Vaclav Smil, distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba

"Essential reading and a timely breath of fresh air for climate policy. The science of climate is neither settled nor sufficient to dictate policy. Rather than an existential crisis, we face a wicked problem that requires a pragmatic balancing of costs and benefits."

--William W. Hogan, professor of Global Energy Policy at Harvard Kennedy School

"Tough talk about climate politics from a statesman scientist--and a vision of what will actually come to pass."

--Robert B. Laughlin, Stanford University

"Unsettled will definitely and rightly unsettle your climate thoughts, and all for the better. If we are to make trillion dollar investments, we deserve to be as well informed as possible."

--Bjorn Lomborg, president of Copenhagen Consensus and visiting fellow at The Hoover Institution at Stanford University

Review

“The most important book on climate science in decades.”
— Rupert Darwall, RealClearPolitics

“The book is no polemic. It’s a plea for understanding how scientists extract clarity from complexity. And, as Mr. Koonin makes clear, few areas of science are as complex and multidisciplinary as the planet’s climate.”
— Mark P. Mills, Wall Street Journal

“Any reader would benefit from its deft, lucid tour of climate science, the best I’ve seen.”
— Holman W. Jenkins, Wall Street Journal

“Fascinating and informative reading, and one hopes it will improve the climate for honest and open discussion.”
— Jonathan Tennenbaum, Asia Times

“Koonin points out scientific facts supported by hard data and the peer-reviewed literature.”
— Tilak Doshi, Forbes

“We have too many global warming books―but this one is needed. Steven Koonin has the credentials, expertise, and experience to ask the right questions and to give realistic answers.”
— Vaclav Smil, distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba

Unsettled is an excellent case study on climate science, its inherent complexity and uncertainty, and a cautionary tale on how interpretive filters in the policymaking process have shaped, and sometimes misinformed, the climate policy debate. It should on be the reading list of scientists and engineers whose responsibility, as citizens, extends beyond the laboratory to communicating to a larger public often overwhelmed and confused by the media. Policymakers and politicians will find it a source of reflection for their arguments, positions, and decisions.”
— Jean-Lou Chameau, President Emeritus, Caltech

“Essential reading and a timely breath of fresh air for climate policy. The science of climate is neither settled nor sufficient to dictate policy. Rather than an existential crisis, we face a wicked problem that requires a pragmatic balancing of costs and benefits.”
— William W. Hogan, professor of global energy policy at Harvard Kennedy School

“Tough talk about climate politics from a statesman scientist―and a vision of what will actually come to pass.”
— Robert B. Laughlin, professor of physics at Stanford University

“Steve Koonin, the undersecretary for science under Obama, has written a very interesting and thoughtful book on climate. He documents how much of what you think you know about climate just ain’t so. Did you know that while the United States is now seeing many fewer cold records, absolute heat records are not increasing? Unsettled will definitely and rightly unsettle your climate thoughts, and all for the better. If we are to make trillion dollar investments, we deserve to be as well informed as possible.”
— Bjørn Lomborg, president of Copenhagen Consensus and visiting fellow at The Hoover Institution at Stanford University

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ BenBella Books
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ 13 May 2021
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 240 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1950665798
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1950665792
  • Item weight ‏ : ‎ 502 g
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 15.24 x 3.05 x 22.86 cm
  • Best Sellers Rank: 106,922 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • Customer reviews:
    4.7 out of 5 stars 5,051 ratings

About the author

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Steven E. Koonin
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Dr. Steven E. Koonin is a University Professor at New York University, with appointments in the Stern School of Business, the Tandon School of Engineering, and the Department of Physics. He founded NYU’s Center for Urban Science and Progress, which focuses research and education on the acquisition, integration, and analysis of big data for big cities.

Dr. Koonin served as Undersecretary for Science in the US Department of Energy under President Obama from 2009 to 2011, where his portfolio included the climate research program and energy technology strategy. He was the lead author of the US Department of Energy’s Strategic Plan (2011) and the inaugural Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review (2011). Before joining the government, Dr. Koonin spent five years as Chief Scientist for BP, researching renewable energy options to move the company “beyond petroleum.”

For almost thirty years, Dr. Koonin was a professor of theoretical physics at Caltech. He also served for nine years as Caltech’s Vice President and Provost, facilitating the research of more than 300 scientists and engineers and catalyzing the development of the world’s largest optical telescope, as well as research initiatives in computational science, bioengineering, and the biological sciences.

In addition to the National Academy of Sciences, Dr. Koonin’s memberships include the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and JASON, the group of scientists who solve technical problems for the US government; he served as JASON’s chair for six years. He chaired the National Academies’ Divisional Committee for Engineering and Physical Sciences from 2014 to 2019, and since 2014 has been a trustee of the Institute for Defense Analyses. He is currently an independent governor of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and has served in similar roles for the Los Alamos, Sandia, Brookhaven, and Argonne National Laboratories. He is a member of Governor Cuomo’s Blue Ribbon Commission to Reimagine New York in the post-COVID-19 era.

Dr. Koonin has a BS in Physics from Caltech and a PhD in Theoretical Physics from MIT. He is an award-winning classroom teacher and his public lectures are noted for their clarity in conveying complex subjects. He is the author of the classic 1985 textbook Computational Physics, which introduced methodology for building computer models of complex physical systems. He has published some 200 peer-reviewed papers in the fields of physics and astrophysics, scientific computation, energy technology and policy, and climate science, and has been the lead author on multiple book-length reports, including two National Academies studies.

Through a series of articles and lectures that began in 2014, Dr. Koonin has advocated for a more accurate, complete, and transparent public representation of climate and energy matters.

Customer reviews

4.7 out of 5 stars
5,051 global ratings

Customers say

Customers find the book well-informed and compelling, with one review noting it presents the basics of physics and climate science in a balanced way. Moreover, the writing style is well-received, and customers appreciate its great scientific integrity and full presentation of actual data. Additionally, the book receives positive feedback for its readability and thought-provoking content. However, the climate science aspect receives mixed reactions, with some finding it food for thought while others express skepticism about climate modeling.

33 customers mention ‘Information quality’33 positive0 negative

Customers appreciate the book's information quality, with several noting it provides an excellent explanation of climate science facts. One customer specifically mentions how it presents the basics of physics and climate science in a balanced manner.

"Most readable, well-balanced and informative. I wish this book could be more widely read...." Read more

"A very informative book which tries to present the information surrounding climate change in an impartial way...." Read more

"...A good, thoughtful, well-researched and well-balanced book...." Read more

"Authorative and comprehensive review of the science and economics of climate change." Read more

24 customers mention ‘Readability’20 positive4 negative

Customers find the book readable and clearly written, with one customer noting it can be understood by non-scientists.

"...For that reason it is well worth reading. Nevertheless, "Unsettled" is..." Read more

"...This should be compulsory reading to anyone trying to work out the where scientific understanding really is on the subject, instead of just blindly..." Read more

"This book clearly deserves to be widely read...." Read more

"A compelling and convincing read for anyone who wants the underlying facts relating to Climate Change...." Read more

10 customers mention ‘Writing style’9 positive1 negative

Customers appreciate the writing style of the book, with one noting it is written by a scientist.

"...A well written and thoughtful review of Climate Change that explains clearly, to ordinary people, the uncertainty around the science...." Read more

"...Nevertheless the book is VERY well written and should be read by anyone who wants to know what is known and what is unknown and most importantly..." Read more

"A really well written book from a man with impeccable credentials...." Read more

"A very well written, clear and concise presentation of the data, all of which is listed for you to check out for yourself...." Read more

9 customers mention ‘Credibility’9 positive0 negative

Customers appreciate the book's scientific integrity and impeccable credentials.

"A really well written book from a man with impeccable credentials...." Read more

"...He is unbiased and although he does not shrink from going into the science in some detail; the book can be understood by the non-scientist...." Read more

"This book is convincing. There may be some global warming but it is within historical bounds - and global cooling could come next...." Read more

"An exceptionally well written book that gives you a balanced understanding of the real truth behind the scary headlines...." Read more

8 customers mention ‘Data quality’7 positive1 negative

Customers appreciate the book's data quality, with several noting it is full of actual data, and one customer mentioning it uses data from real publications.

"This book is full of information that is difficult to find since the IPCC keeps it hidden in their reports...." Read more

"Steven Koonin has produced an excellent up to date book on the vexed question of climate. He is an expert...." Read more

"Very readable and everything he has to say is supported by data from the ICC report. He makes no unsubstantiated claims...." Read more

"...tries to take an honest approach to the climate science, using data from real publications...." Read more

6 customers mention ‘Balance’6 positive0 negative

Customers appreciate the balanced approach of the book.

"...A good, thoughtful, well-researched and well-balanced book...." Read more

"Most readable, well-balanced and informative. I wish this book could be more widely read...." Read more

"Well balanced account...." Read more

"Balanced analysis ;excellent & informative..." Read more

5 customers mention ‘Thought provoking’5 positive0 negative

Customers find the book extremely thought-provoking.

"Very authoritative and thought provoking" Read more

"...I found the book extremely thought provoking and, whilst I certainly don't agree with everything in it, I will be putting the book back on my..." Read more

"...A good, thoughtful, well-researched and well-balanced book...." Read more

"...The book is particularly good at conveying just how complex the issue is and how much we don’t know...." Read more

16 customers mention ‘Climate science’11 positive5 negative

Customers have mixed views on the book's climate science content, with some finding it food for thought and noting that the climate is changing, while others express skepticism about climate modeling.

"Authorative and comprehensive review of the science and economics of climate change." Read more

"...He recommends more thinking and a strategy of adapting to climate change rather than futile gestures like zero carbon until we can have more..." Read more

"...So much, Koonin agrees are established facts. He is skeptical of climate modelling and predictions or projections produced by such models, despite..." Read more

"...in presenting historical perspective and actual scientific realities when considering climate change...." Read more

Top reviews from United Kingdom

  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 6 October 2023
    Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
    An easy enough read, it tries to take an honest approach to the climate science, using data from real publications. This includes IPCC reports, that most people don't bother read, or at least not the detailed scientific sections. The conclusion of this is that, whereas Co2 is a green house gas, and the planet has warmed, many of catastrophes that are being predicted either are not happening, or we don't seem to know as there isn't the data. He also gives a good overview of climate models, which have grids that are way too big to be that useful, and that it is very much a computing power issue (but also a data issue to initialise the models). Finally, the last few chapters are about how easy it is going to be to get to Net Zero, and how the Science for climate science needs to be fixed. Overall, and honest book of science, although a bit dry, and with most of the data based on the USA.
    8 people found this helpful
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  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 23 January 2023
    For the vast majority of us who aren’t scientists, and who feel overwhelmed with strident and hysterical media claims of imminent catastrophe, this book is - at last - an academic analysis of available data which is measured, if not settling. It is a long and detailed read, but I understand that there is a detailed precis available for those who haven’t the time or patience to mentally roll their sleeves up.
    However, what a lot of hard work Professor Koonin has put in to help those who will listen. His style is that of a science communicator, rather than drily academic. I wish more of his colleagues would stick their heads above the “science” parapet and speak out. We need their wisdom and common sense. Thank you Professor Koonin.
    8 people found this helpful
    Report
  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 21 October 2023
    Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
    Although Steven Koonin's book concentrates on climate change, its key message is tucked away in one of the final chapters and provdes the title for my review. Koonin suggests that matters of climate change are inherently uncertain and that's the way it should be. He separates weather from climate and I would add that given how bad we are at forecasting the weather as litle as a week in advance, it seems crazy to think that the outcomes of our models of climate change are beyond discussion. I found the book extremely thought provoking and, whilst I certainly don't agree with everything in it, I will be putting the book back on my shelves for future reference. My one gripe is that many of the graphs are REALLY hard to read as they are reproduced in monochrome but must surely have been colour originals. Any second edition should address this weakness as I'm sure the book would be a much easier read if the illustrations were more accessible. Balancing that shortcoming, there is a huge list of references and most of the links I tried are still live, which adds considerably to the value of this book.
    9 people found this helpful
    Report
  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 26 February 2025
    Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
    In 2024 what does the title of professor of Physics Koonin’s “Unsettled?” refer to? There are now many certainties which were once just speculations when first raised in the 1890’s. Subsequent research has raised those speculations to the confidence of established fact and Koonin acknowledges this. There are no Trumpian claims that “Climate Change is a Hoax” here. There is a commitment to establishing rigorous scientific knowledge and establishing what conclusions are empirically justified by the data we have collected so far.
    Central to the discussion of climate change is CO2 and its role as a greenhouse gas. There is no uncertainty that human burning of fossil fuel has since 1958 added 2ppm per year to the atmospheric concentration of CO2. From a pre industrial concentration of 280ppm now, in 2024, we have arrived at 424ppm, and the rate of addition to this has increased to 2.7ppm per year, as 37 GT (giga tonnes = a million million Kg= 1012 Kg) of CO2 is dumped into the atmosphere each year by us where it will accumulate for several centuries. If we continue emissions at this level we will have doubled the CO2 concentration to 560ppm in the atmosphere by 2075.
    The physics of radiative transfer in the atmosphere is now well understood. The absorption spectra of all the main greenhouse gasses have been accurately measured in detail so it is now possible to calculate the outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere for any given atmospheric composition, and solar Radiation input to the earth system. This calculated spectrum of the outgoing radiation agrees in detail with that measured by satellite observation, indicating we understand the detailed energy balance involved and so can accurately model the radiative forcing increase associated with any increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. This radiative forcing increases the average global temperature by an amount which depends on the “climate sensitivity”. This has been estimated by four different methods, some dependent on climate models and some on historical climate measurements independent of the models. These have arrived at a range of values 2.5-4.5 C with 95% probability usually reported as 3C equilibrium temperature rise for doubling the CO2 concentration. The estimate includes all the various known feedbacks adjustments such as increased water vapour concentration associated with the temperature rise.
    So much, Koonin agrees are established facts. He is skeptical of climate modelling and predictions or projections produced by such models, despite their successes in clarifying physical processes which influence the climate and despite the “attribution science”, of which he is dismissive but which has developed analytical methods to analyse chaotic , complex systems such as global climate, and which were awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics. This award for climate modelling goes unremarked by Koonin in his 2024 update. He is focused more on empirical studies of patterns of weather which may reveal climate change over time if the time series signal of varying climate grows to be significantly larger than the noise of the natural variability of the responses of day to day weather.
    To date, the only significant time series of measurements which exhibit signals larger than the natural variability has been the CO2 concentration and the average global temperature. Other metrics such as local rainfall, snowfall, frequencies or intensities of hurricanes, tornadoes, fires, floods, heatwaves, rates of ice melt and jet stream variations, have all been compatible with the natural variation measured in the data as Koonin argues by explicit analysis of the IPCC data. But this data has been collected across the period where global average temperature has increased by only 1 C. It maybe we will need to continue collecting these data as temperature rises by 3C or higher, before the signal of climate change becomes unambiguously larger than natural variation in these phenomena. Koonin proposes we do nothing until we see this signal and climate change’s impact on weather then becomes a settled matter of fact.
    This abandons the precautionary principle which recognizes that the later we make the switch from fossil fuel burning, the more climate change gets baked in to the system and is not easily reversed and the higher the price our children and following generations will pay adapting to the changed climate.
    Koonin does not address the issue of accumulating long term effects on the climate such as those discussed In “The Long Thaw” by David Archer, climate scientist and oceanographer. Nonetheless the virtue of his book is it focuses on the data we have and the conclusions we can draw and that is what science is about. It is an effective counter to the climate “doomism” and the nonsensical “climate apocalypse” presentations of Hollywood, scientifically illiterate activist groups and the media circus, as well as to bone headed climate change denialism.
  • Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 16 May 2025
    Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
    A compelling and convincing read for anyone who wants the underlying facts relating to Climate Change. I keeping buying further copies for friends who look at me in disbelief when I say that I am sceptical about how The Science has been presented - they have hitherto always got their information from mainstream media. This book highlights why they should be sceptical about what they hear from such sources. The 2024 updated edition is certainly worth getting even if you read the first edition from 2021.

Top reviews from other countries

Translate all reviews to English
  • ChoppyRides
    5.0 out of 5 stars Keep an open mind.
    Reviewed in Australia on 17 February 2025
    Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
    It pays to consider all sides of these conversations around 'Climate Change'.
  • Vegas Bboy
    5.0 out of 5 stars Truly helpful, and thought-provoking
    Reviewed in Germany on 6 January 2023
    Steven Koonin has written a fantastic book on the data & facts behind "The Science" of climate change; but one that would unfortunately have to be categorized as heterodox and provocative (not necessarily bad things) in the current societal climate.
    It seems "The Media", so-called intellectuals & elites and politicians have shown the public a carnival mirror version of the climate science consensus. A version that glosses over complexity and uncertainty and is putting us on a path toward less prosperity and massive societal change programs... At unimaginable costs. Koonin makes compelling arguments that this is an ill-informed and myopic strategy.
    I can only recommend reading this book, and hope that people across the political spectrum who care about our response to a changing climate will read it and take it to heart.
  • Bill
    5.0 out of 5 stars The science of climate change is far from settled.
    Reviewed in Canada on 10 October 2021
    When I first saw was in the Obama administration, and his basic bio I thought it would be another brainless climate change hype, but was pleasantly surprised by his objective and well researched position. He is highly critical of the climate computer models. He quotes "all models are wrong, but some are interesting". Great read, and I wish every media pundit and politician would read Koonin's book. You don't need to agree with everything he says, but you need to have a reasoned opposition argument. He differentiates between The Science and science. In this day and age we need to read and follow science, The Science is not much more than ideology.
  • Filippo Persi
    5.0 out of 5 stars Una discussione seria e scettica della 'Scienza' del clima.
    Reviewed in Italy on 10 November 2021
    Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
    L'autore mostra come la 'Scienza' (con la S maiuscola) del clima è un campo con certezze molto meno consolidate di quanto non passi attraverso i media. Attraverso uno sguardo realmente scientifico descrive tutto ciò che sappiamo (e che non sappiamo) sul cambiamento climatico. Se davvero ci approcciamo con giudizio alla 'emergenza' climatica, le soluzioni di cui ci parlano i nostri governanti dovrebbero essere accolte con un grado di scetticismo molto maggiore. Queste soffrono spesso di vari difetti: implicano enormi costi economici per la maggior parte della popolazione, specie delle fasce meno abbienti; sono estremamente difficili da realizzare sia dal punto di vista politico sia dal punto di vista tecnico; contribuirebbero spesso in maniera solo marginale a modificare le temperature globali; implicherebbero rischi di deriva anti-democratica e tecnocratica, etc.
    Report
  • 嘉地洋介
    5.0 out of 5 stars 別の見方で問題を見る利点がわかる
    Reviewed in Japan on 22 May 2024
    素晴らしい本でした、翻訳されているかわかりませんが、英語が読める方にはおすすめです!