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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Paperback – 28 Feb 2008

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author)
3.4 out of 5 stars 330 customer reviews
#1 Best Sellerin Mathematical Probability & Statistics
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Product details

  • Paperback: 394 pages
  • Publisher: Penguin (28 Feb. 2008)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0141034599
  • ISBN-13: 978-0141034591
  • Product Dimensions: 19.6 x 12.7 x 3 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (330 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 2,039 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Product description

Review

Great fun … brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling (Freakonomics)

An idiosyncratically brilliant new book (Sunday Telegraph)

A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected (Guardian)

Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling (Financial Times)

Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot (Sunday Times)

In the tradition of The Wisdom of Crowds and The Tipping Point (Time)

From the Publisher

Shortlisted for the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2007
--This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

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Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

2.0 out of 5 starsRead now in 2016, the message brought by the ...
By V Ghezzi on 6 Feb. 2016
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
Read now in 2016, the message brought by the book is nowadays pointless. In fact, as for the 3 main issues of it:
1) Black Swans do exist: this is now obvious even for the most supporters of causality;
2) the traditional tools used in finance for prediction, based on the gaussian distribution of probability, are flawed: this is now widely recognized - by the way, the true professional risk managers have never been fooled by the wrong use of the gaussian;
3) Black Swans are unpredictable: this is obvious by definition, but Taleb almost forgets that it makes sense to deploy measures against the effects of a possible rare and catastrophic event, if this impacts a large share of the population, such as earthquakes for example.
In conclusion, it's a philosphical, not a scientific book. Many pages for a few and not original concepts, and most of the author's personal anecdotes could have been skipped.
I am sorry for the author, who indeed has other merits, but this book has been overrated by far.
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1.0 out of 5 starsUnjustifiably arrogant, too anecdotal
By Amazon Customer on 30 Dec. 2016
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
There are two main issues with this book.
The first is the author's inexplicable arrogance and sense of superiority.
The second is the endless trail of anecdotes, both real and fictional, that only seem to serve the purpose of diluting the content.
The author assigns himself a very easy task: to prove that many theoretical frameworks are not perfect based on sporadic errors. He then assumes that this observation justifies the complete dismissal of whole branches of academia without offering any substantial alternative account. He constantly dismisses ill-defined groups such as "economists", "historians", or even just all "academics" (!) with little more than anecdotal evidence, without ever engaging with the opposing views.
I imagine in the current climate of anti-intellectualism this book will resonate with many, but anybody who has dealt with the matter in any serious setting or is simply familiar with basic scholarly practice will find this quite lacking.
I did appreciate the frequent references to the much preferable book Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahneman, which focuses on the cognitive aspect of statistical reasoning and its failings. For anyone interested more in the shortcomings of predictive models, I would possibly recommend Weapons of Math Destruction by O'Neil.
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3.0 out of 5 starsSignificant, but certainly not without fault
By Josh LL on 27 Mar. 2017
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
An interesting and significant text, however, I can't help but feel that some of Taleb's more controversial theses are poorly supported and some of the later statistical reasoning appears confused.
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5.0 out of 5 starsI love Taleb's books
By Amazon Customer on 30 April 2017
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
I love Taleb's books. The guy is very clever and he is very well read. This isn't the first book I have read by Taleb, Ive now read all his books, I wish he would write some more.
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5.0 out of 5 starsBrilliant book, funny and though provoking
By Sarah on 30 Sept. 2016
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
Recommended to anyone that senses there is something dreadfully unsound about the way the world is run but can't put their finger on the cause.
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5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars
By JS on 9 Dec. 2016
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
Great Price
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5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars
By Ian Vaughan on 27 May 2017
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
very good
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1.0 out of 5 starsA well padded bird
By Amazon Customer on 7 Oct. 2011
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
Prompted by this book, the term "Black Swan Event" has come into popular use when discussing risk, so I thought it would make for an interesting read. It isn't. The basic concept of "unknown unknowns" is sound, but it really doesn't need more than twenty pages to explain it, put it in context, and discuss various uses.

I got bored by Taleb's strange in-jokes, preening and incessant stroking of his Übermensch ego. However, he's made a lot of what he calls "F--- you" money, so I don't doubt "F--- you" is exactly what he thinks of any negative reviews.

Flick through the reviews and you'll get the points he makes in a nutshell.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews

1.0 out of 5 starsFails to hook its reader

This book was in my reading list quite long. I've come across the book and the concept in several occasions and I was really intrigued by the concept. Read more

Published 1 month ago by Marjusaari Ville
3.0 out of 5 starsProvocative, entertaining, and grossly flawed

I will summarise the book in one paragraph and then give positive and negative comment and a more serious critique of his message. Read more

Published 1 month ago by hfffoman
2.0 out of 5 starsor part of a bigger work this would've been great but it's not

An interesting but ultimately frustrating book which covers the same basic premise multiple times, multiple different ways. Read more

Published 2 months ago by cheesemonster
5.0 out of 5 starsAn incredibly thought provoking read

I am not qualified to comment on the maths and philosophical competence of the author. But he appears to know his stuff. Read more

Published 3 months ago by Michael
5.0 out of 5 starsOne of my favourite authors. And favourite books

Even if you are not that interested in probability and risk, this book is highly entertaining and packed with eye opening messages.

Published 3 months ago by Erik
5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars

Interesting and thought provoking

Published 3 months ago by J A Turner
2.0 out of 5 starsDull turgid book that tries to present many things as ...

Ego trip for Taleb. Dull turgid book that tries to present many things as revelatory whereas in fact they are known and obvious. Read more

Published 3 months ago by Client d'Amazon
5.0 out of 5 starsIt looks like new! I love it

Thank you so much for the book. It looks like new! I love it!

Published 3 months ago by Amazon Customer
3.0 out of 5 starsPerfect for the departure lounge

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Published 3 months ago by Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars

Great read

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