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Supertrends: Winning Investment Strategies for the Coming Decades by [Tvede, Lars]
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Supertrends: Winning Investment Strategies for the Coming Decades 1st , Kindle Edition

3.9 out of 5 stars 16 customer reviews

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Product description


This is a highly readable, intelligent and fun effort which just may help you make money many years down the line.   (UK–Analyst, September 2010). This is a highly recommended read. (Professional Investor, June 2012)

From the Inside Flap

Supertrends is more than an intellectual highly inspiring book. It hijacks you from short term consensus and powerfully redirects your thinking towards future perspectives. A must–read for all executives ready to challenge the status quo in order to have sound business visions. Dr Christian De Prati, Chief Executive Officer, Merrill Lynch Capital Markets AG

In 2009, I visited Lars Tvede to delver a keynote address to an elite group of technology investors and entrepreneurs. He impressed the audience with an analysis of trends emerging in the Energy, Biotech and IT sectors. In Supertrends, Lars has expanded on these ideas, doing a deep dive into global trends, demographic change and technology advances, and his conclusions pinpoint even more opportunities for the astute investor. It is a must–read for investors who are trying to understand where to find opportunity on a rapidly changing world! Farley Cash Duvall, Former Managing Director, Red Herring EMEA and current CEO of White Bull GmbH Zurich, Switzerland

It takes a keen sense of analysis and expansive creativity to think in terms of the next 40 years. Whether or not one buys into the crystal ball that Lars Tvede has developed, few could challenge that this is a unique and comprehensive look at out collective futures. Further, with the breadth of insights offered, there is something of value for everyone. Read it, then think about it. Barry A. Matsumori, Vice President, Wireless Connectivity, Qualcomm, Inc.

A must–read not only for business captains and investors, but for anybody interested in today s and tomorrow s world.  Lars Tvede s new book develops a mind–boggling and refreshingly optimistic! vision of the future. The book is exciting, thought–provoking, thrilling and fun! Ole Skov, former Managing Partner, Accenture

Product details

  • Format: Kindle Edition
  • File Size: 4815 KB
  • Print Length: 473 pages
  • Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (25 May 2010)
  • Sold by: Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.
  • Language: English
  • ASIN: B003O86F54
  • Text-to-Speech: Enabled
  • X-Ray:
  • Word Wise: Enabled
  • Enhanced Typesetting: Enabled
  • Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars 16 customer reviews
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #248,434 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
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Customer Reviews

3.9 out of 5 stars
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By ShammyB TOP 500 REVIEWERVINE VOICE on 4 Aug. 2010
Format: Hardcover Vine Customer Review of Free Product ( What's this? )
I can't help but like this book. It is well written and well researched (although why the publisher decided to hobble such a well thought out book via a cover that makes it look like a boring physics school text book circa 1979 is beyond me!).

The book's central core is that we should avoid mistaking cycles for trends. It is not a financial meltdown or the end of the world. We are simply coming out of the bottom of a financial cycle, and the trend is still positive. The book explains exactly why this trend is not only positive, but we are actually at the bottom of the growth graph and there is a long way for it to rise. In the long term, the economy is about to shoot up in a way it has never done before!

The book is very contrarian given the current financial/social/political turmoil we see the world in, but, as Lars mentions in the book, the doom-mongering is always overdone and quietly forgotten once it is disproven. I remember in the 1980s we were expecting a global ice age from the environmentalists, but now it has quietly been changed to global warming, even though the scientists are looking at the same data!

There's a few issues I have with the book;

It is not clear that technology is producing efficiency as much as we would like to believe. It may be that the cheapening of raw materials and cheaper foreign unskilled labour costs over the last 20 years are actually the real `productivity' driver, and not info-technology. It may even be that women have entered the industrial workplace since WWII (something on its own that has DOUBLED productivity before any changes to technology OR underlying processes!).
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By litlight VINE VOICE on 18 Mar. 2011
Format: Hardcover
The book is full of extrapolations and ideas that have already been discussed a lot. Sure, history repeats, and going over and over the same thing under different plastic cover has its place, but I just find very little value here. Besides, some of the ideas mentioned here are already out of date and both investment and political community moved on. The writer likes the idea that there will be only 2 super powers in the future: one where he himself belongs - Anglo-Saxon (a bit of self promotion won't hurt), and the second one - China, (kinda have to insert something obvious in for credibility, something everyone else might agree upon). The real world, outside the world that this author is trying to describe is talking about multi-polar world instead. In the multi polar world there will be many regional powers each with its unique qualities. This multi polar world is already here in fact, but the writer is perhaps a little behind times. The author also believes that banking and finance is the best thing since sliced bread, failing to realise that this specific industry is a product which lives off other industries and services. Banking in many ways should be the same utility type service as water supply or electricity. It simply needs to deal with distribution of tokens that represent value for exchange purposes. Instead society, at least in the west, is in the deep crisis created by the very bankers who drive economy to the ground through gambling, demand extortionate salaries 100 and 1000 times more than doctors, nurses, teachers, all vital jobs that do in fact keep our world together. If this is not parasitical, then what is? The author of this book says, banks should spin their "story" more. It is because there is not enough banking spin out there, apparently.
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Format: Hardcover Vine Customer Review of Free Product ( What's this? )
This is a well research book seeking to cover a wide spectrum of investment opportunities and over a long time scale.

The analysis is strong on extrapolation of current trends and opportunities into the future. The author seems to be incredibly well read and extremely intelligent covering many different topics. With over 400 pages there is a lot of information to digest, but each section comes with a summary.

The author looks at 7 supersectors; finance, real estate, commodities, alternative energy, genomics & biotech, information technology, and luxury.

The problem is, as one other reviewer points out, many of the greatest investment opportunities will be in areas that the author probably has no knowledge of because the breakthroughs are yet to be made especially in the field of material physics (M Bhangal S).

The average investor will not be able to extrapolate the useful information provided within this book into a winning strategy. Rather the book suggests where a rich and resourceful advanced investor should be putting a portion of his long term wealth. So an interesting book but not much use for the majority.
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Format: Hardcover Vine Customer Review of Free Product ( What's this? )
I sometimes give talks at conferences about predicting the future. It's title is "Futurology [the "science" of predicting future technologies and lifestyles] is bunk" (actually the last word is normally a bit stronger, but hey, family audience here at Amazon and all that), and the first slide reads:

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" - Niels Bohr

Bohr dealt with atomic theory as his day job. When he, as one of the most influential physicists in the 20th century - a man of great intellect and wisdom - asserts that making predictions about what is going to come next is much harder, you should consider making such predictions with great care.

The fact is, whenever somebody is telling you "this is what is going to happen", what they are really saying is "I have looked at historical data, and believe these patterns have emerged, and if they continue, this is what I would like to imagine might happen in the future". It is entirely subjective, and it's impossible to be objective. At the end of the 1960s, futurologists looked back at a decade of exponential growth, the improvements in lifestyle seen in the Western World and felt it was "inevitable" that by the year 2000 we would be holidaying on the moon and all of our domestic chores would be carried out by robots.

We know how that turned out. Society develops in ways that are not predictable, and technology develops specifically to market demands, as investment is directed accordingly. Ah, investment, yes, we're coming back to where this book lies in its intent... In the late 1960s if the author had been writing this book he would not have known about the impact the semiconductor industry was going to have, because it did not yet exist.
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