This book was recommended to me by a friend because both of us occasionally need to forecast as part of our jobs. In many aspects of this book it was like reading about how granny sucked eggs. A lot of the book covers theory on what makes an accurate forecast. There are some nuggets of insight on good forecasting which is nicely surmised in the appendix with the 11 commandments of Superforecasting.
The issue with the book is not the material of the content but the padding. There seems to be a lot of it. This is a 300+ page book that can be edited down to half the size without losing information. Many of the same examples of Superforecasting were repeated more than once.
It was funny to read that a lot of businesses are not actually that interested if a forecast is right or wrong provided the forecast tells them what they want to hear. Talking from experience I know this to be true. In addition other forecasters are reluctant to revisit old forecasts in fear of exposing their inaccuracies, which to me, made zero sense and I am glad Tetlock agrees with this view.
Overall it is a good read, just nothing special if you do this sort of thing for a living.
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Paperback – 24 Sep 2015
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Review
"The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone." (Economist)
"A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended." (Independent)
"This marvelous book tells an exciting story of ordinary people beating experts in a very serious game. It is also a manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it." (Daniel Kahneman)
"Full of excellent advice – it is the best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity." (The Times)
"Philip Tetlock has transformed the science of prediction." (Spectator)
"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." (Wall Street Journal)
"Fascinating and breezily written." (Sunday Times)
"Superforecasting is a fascinating book." (Daily Mail)
"Superforecasting is a very good book. In fact it is essential reading." (Management Today)
"The best way to know if an idea is right is to see if it predicts the future. But which ideas, which methods, which people have a track record of non-obvious predictions vindicated by the course of events? The answers will surprise you, and they have radical implications for politics, policy, journalism, education, and even epistemology – how we can best gain knowledge about the world. The casual style of Superforecasting belies the profundity of its message." (Steven Pinker)
Book Description
A ground-breaking new work on improving our ability to predict future events.
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