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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future Hardcover – 5 Mar. 2020

by Mervyn King (Author), John Kay (Author)
4.3 out of 5 stars 624 ratings
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LONGLISTED FOR THE FT/MCKINSEY BUSINESS BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD 2020

'A brilliant new book'
Daily Telegraph

'Well written . . . and often entertaining'
The Times

'A sparkling analysis'
Prospect

'Entertaining and enlightening . . . This is a necessary critique and they make it with verve, knowledge and a wealth of stories'
Financial Times

'An elegant, wise and timely book' Irish Times

'Jam-packed with erudition' New Statesman


This major, critically acclaimed work asks a vitally important question for today: when uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions?

We do not know what the future will hold, particularly in the midst of a crisis, but we must make decisions anyway. We regularly crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives.

This incisive and eye-opening book draws on biography, history, mathematics, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, the authors argue, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today.

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  1. Print length
    544 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    The Bridge Street Press
  4. Publication date
    5 Mar. 2020
  5. Dimensions
    16.4 x 5 x 23.6 cm
  6. ISBN-10
    1408712601
  7. ISBN-13
    978-1408712603
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From the Publisher

Radical Uncertainty

Radical Uncertainty

Radical Uncertainty

Radical Uncertainty

Radical Uncertainty

Product description

Review

If you're interested in judgement and decision-making, this book is fascinating. If that's your job, Radical Uncertainty is essential. -- Ed Smith

In this profound yet practical book, Kay and King demonstrate the obvious - that in crucial domains, we do not, will not, cannot know what is going on - and show, nevertheless, how to retain the ability to function. -- Paul Romer

This fascinating and well-written book will resonate way beyond economics. It deserves to be widely read. -- Mike Brearley

John Kay and Mervyn King want more people to grasp the old distinction between risk and uncertainty forgotten by a later generation of economists. -- Niall Ferguson

Many books will make a reader better informed or smarter. This is one of very few that will make a reader much wiser. You will live differently and better after you grasp Kay and King's seminal lessons. -- Lawrence H. Summers

About the Author

Mervyn King was Governor of the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013 and is currently Professor of Economics and Law at New York University and School Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. Lord King was made a life peer in 2013 and appointed by the Queen a Knight of the Garter in 2014. He is the author of The End of Alchemy.

John Kay is a Fellow of St John's College, Oxford and has held professorial appointments at the University of Oxford, London Business School and the London School of Economics. He is a director of several public companies and for many years contributed a weekly column to the Financial Times. He chaired the UK government review of equity markets which reported in 2012 recommending substantial reforms. He is the author of many books including Other People's Money, The Truth about Markets, The Long and the Short of It and Obliquity.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ The Bridge Street Press
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ 5 Mar. 2020
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 544 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1408712601
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1408712603
  • Item weight ‏ : ‎ 834 g
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 16.4 x 5 x 23.6 cm
  • Best Sellers Rank: 455,731 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • Customer reviews:
    4.3 out of 5 stars 624 ratings

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John Kay

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Customer reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars
624 global ratings

Customers say

Customers find the book engaging and thought-provoking, with one noting it serves as a useful antidote to theories of judgment. Moreover, the book receives positive feedback for its balance between stories and opinion, and one customer mentions it references millions of recent books. However, the pacing receives mixed reactions, with one customer finding it endlessly repetitive.

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Thought provokingReadabilityBalance of storiesReference materialPacing
8 customers mention ‘Thought provoking’7 positive1 negative

Customers find the book thought-provoking and intellectually stimulating, with one customer noting it serves as a useful antidote to theories of judgment.

"It's a good book in some ways. Each individual page is engaging and erudite. But the whole thing doesn't hang together...." Read more

"...stars, because its premise is spot on and the authors' expertise, intellect and engaging writing style should equip them to deliver a clear and..." Read more

"The book makes good points that I agree with but it was longer than it needed to be and didn’t really offer strong solutions for the presented..." Read more

"This book is a useful antidote to theories of judgement and decision-making generated in lab studies that assume human behaviours which depart from..." Read more

7 customers mention ‘Readability’7 positive0 negative

Customers find the book readable and enjoyable, with one mentioning it provides interesting insights into managing risk.

"Good, though at time repetitive..." Read more

"I enjoyed reading this book, not least because of all the interesting diversions and references which led me constantly to Wikipedia and other..." Read more

"No uncertainty about this being a good read." Read more

"It's a good book in some ways. Each individual page is engaging and erudite. But the whole thing doesn't hang together...." Read more

5 customers mention ‘Balance of stories’4 positive1 negative

Customers appreciate the balance of stories and opinion in the book, with one mentioning it is full of amazing stories.

"...But that’s to sell the book short. It’s full of amazing stories, references millions of recent books without ever being overbearing and makes fun..." Read more

"At time repetitive but very enjoyable. Good balance of stories and opinion. Wish they had made the jump from uncertainty to entropy." Read more

"I wish I could give this more stars, because its premise is spot on and the authors' expertise, intellect and engaging writing style should equip..." Read more

"...paints a picture chapter after chapter of the word where radical uncertainty prevails...." Read more

4 customers mention ‘Reference material’3 positive1 negative

Customers appreciate the book's extensive references, with one mentioning it draws from millions of recent books and another noting its wide range of research.

"...this book, not least because of all the interesting diversions and references which led me constantly to Wikipedia and other internet sources...." Read more

"...The authors draw on deep experience and a wide range of research to show how the ways in which we make decisions in contexts of deep uncertainty..." Read more

"...Downgraded to 1 star due to derogatory reference to a private individual (see below)...." Read more

"...It’s full of amazing stories, references millions of recent books without ever being overbearing and makes fun of David Viniar on pages 6, 9, 58, 68..." Read more

3 customers mention ‘Pacing’1 positive2 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the pacing of the book.

"...Far too verbose and endlessly repetitive especially of the phrase” what is going on here”" Read more

"It's a good book in some ways. Each individual page is engaging and erudite. But the whole thing doesn't hang together...." Read more

"Repetitive and patronising..." Read more

Top reviews from United Kingdom

  • MarkFOC
    5.0 out of 5 stars An important book for decision-makers in business and government
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 2 September 2020
    Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
    This book is a useful antidote to theories of judgement and decision-making generated in lab studies that assume human behaviours which depart from prescriptions of 'rational behaviour' in small worlds of probabilitic risk represent major failures of huamn reasoning. Unfortunately these theories are all too influential in economics, in government decision models which aim to identify optimal choices and in many cases in business.

    The authors draw on deep experience and a wide range of research to show how the ways in which we make decisions in contexts of deep uncertainty need profound rethinking.

    Whilst as some reviewers have noted there is a degree of repetition of ideas in the book, this is useful in communicating not only the theoretical but practical importance of these ideas.
    4 people found this helpful
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  • Athan
    4.0 out of 5 stars Of mice and men
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 17 March 2020
    Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
    For a hyper-discursive one-idea book, this was actually rather good!

    Here’s the idea:

    Economics would do well to turn its mathematical prowess away from the idea that economic agents are busy maximising something and must focus on “what’s going on here.”

    And “what’s going on” is quite simple: we all have some sort of dream! (the word the authors use is “narrative.”) As we gather information, we assess how this new information influences our dream and adapt accordingly.

    The End.

    This is neither Mervyn King’s nor John Kay’s best book, but that’s a mighty high bar. John Kay is one of my Gods (for all his contributions to the FT) and author of three excellent books, including “The Truth About Markets” (though I’d give a miss to the rather grumpy “Other People’s Money.”) Mervyn King is the author of “The End of Alchemy,” a truly AMAZING, one-lesson-per-paragraph treatise about the 2008 crisis and what central banks ought to do to avoid the next one.

    Speaking of which, they’re totally on-the-ball: top of page 40 they as-good-as predict the current coronavirus crisis. And in pages 408-409 they introduce the concept that “the large corporation is the most important actor in the modern economy, and it is surprising how little attention has been given to the economics of organisation.”

    So there you have it: to get out of our bind, to understand the economy and to be able to make decent predictions about the future, we need to study the narrative that’s in the head of the captains of industry and predict how they will react to new information, be that incremental or some type of shock. That’s the main takeaway here.

    But that’s to sell the book short. It’s full of amazing stories, references millions of recent books without ever being overbearing and makes fun of David Viniar on pages 6, 9, 58, 68, 109, 150, 176, 202, 235 and 366.

    It’s kept me good company for a week and I recommend it to anybody looking for what strongly feels like the last book from two very good authors.
    63 people found this helpful
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  • Turnips
    5.0 out of 5 stars Fascinating
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 25 February 2023
    Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
    Really interesting book on managing risk. Many points are perceptive. Most an easy read too.
    Helpful
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  • alwaysean
    3.0 out of 5 stars Overlong and meandering
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 25 November 2023
    Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
    It's a good book in some ways. Each individual page is engaging and erudite. But the whole thing doesn't hang together.

    The book doesn't so much as make a reasoned argument as meander through a series of anecdotes and vignettes. There isn't a structured argument running through it.

    It should be edited down to half its length and forced to make a tight argument. Much more ruthless edited is called for.

    Ultimately you feel like your time is being wasted because the authors haven't thought through their reasoning throughly enough
    2 people found this helpful
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  • David B
    5.0 out of 5 stars The most sane book on decision making I've ever read
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 13 September 2020
    Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
    As the authors say, we do not know what the future will hold but we must make decisions anyway. How best to do that? I have never believed trying to guesstimate probabilities and using Bayesian ideas is a lot of help and gives false certainty where none is possible. This book suggests robust strategies that are more resilient to unpredictable and therefore unknowable events. Highly recommended!
    One person found this helpful
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  • Amazon Customer
    4.0 out of 5 stars Good but a bit long and waffly
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 3 February 2022
    Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
    The book makes good points that I agree with but it was longer than it needed to be and didn’t really offer strong solutions for the presented problems. It feels more that the book was written for the pleasure of writing than for the express benefit of the reader. But I will now ask myself more frequently “what is going on here?” (and then promptly confirm to myself “I don’t know”).
    One person found this helpful
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  • Mario Pines
    5.0 out of 5 stars Aleased Central Banker is always extremely interesting, in this very special situation
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 16 November 2020
    Verified Purchase
    Not yet able to review, but I know the Canaian gentleman
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  • Financial Phil
    5.0 out of 5 stars A very broad look at uncertainty (as opposed to risk)
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 19 July 2020
    Format: Hardcover
    I listened to the audible version (very good) of this while reading Spiegelhalter's "The Art of Statistics" and Michael Lewis' "The Undoing Project", and together they gave a great balance between the need for careful, statistical analysis of those problems where that is appropriate and necessary, and the need for a very different approach when we are looking for the consequences of abrupt and sudden change. Each side takes the occasional swipe at the other side, but in general these are all well-reasoned rational stories - and all very readable.
    Kahneman and Tversky (as written up by Lewis) worked out is that, here statistics could check on the validity of people's thinking, people were not very good at guessing the right statistical answer, and that these failures were, to a great extent, systematic and forecastable. What Kay and King point out is that there are many issues for which there is no appropriate statistically-correct answer, and they claim that the mind has evolved over millennia to make reasonable decisions in these situations - not optimal but reasonable and reasonably robust.
    Once you limit your thinking to the situations where statistics are potentially misleading, King and Kay give us a very broad sweep through that world and through theories and practice.
    Just remember that there are many situations where statistical analysis gives a much better answer that narratives and raw human judgement, and many situations where the opposite is true.
    This is one of three excellent books, and is essential reading for everyone that needs to think clearly about risk and uncertainty.
    One person found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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  • Matzbravo
    5.0 out of 5 stars Moved my thinking forward
    Reviewed in the United States on 24 April 2020
    Verified Purchase
    I, too, believed that probabilistic reasoning was the forefront of decision making. This book is pioneering a greater faith in the evolved capacity of "eye-balling" a complex problem -- a mystery as it were -- to reach good enough decisions. It's a rare flattering comment on human selves as an evolved species. An outstanding read with deep insights presented clearly and entertainingly.
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  • jassim abdulla almannai
    5.0 out of 5 stars It is excellent book
    Reviewed in the United Arab Emirates on 2 April 2023
    Verified Purchase
    It is a great work done by great economists
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  • Ross
    2.0 out of 5 stars A handful of important ideas padded out with lots of ‘recycled’ filler material
    Reviewed in Japan on 2 May 2020
    Verified Purchase
    Lots of filler material - it reads as though the authors were trying to achieve a certain minimum page count. Some good ideas, but no more than could be expressed in a short pamphlet. I don’t think this book adds much beyond the work of Nassim Taleb, which is eminently more readable and insightful.
    Report
  • Vedran
    4.0 out of 5 stars An interesting and fun book to read
    Reviewed in Italy on 26 June 2021
    Verified Purchase
    This book from an ex governor of the Bank of England and an Oxford professor is not what I expected it to be. Still, it was quite fun to read.

    The prose is very light and well written. Some economist humor scattered throughout the book definitely helps readability. But when it comes to books about risk and uncertainty, this book is nowhere close to Nicholas Taleb's books in terms of either charm, scope, or depth. It also, consequently, produces much less self-reflection and thinking on your side.

    The book is split in six parts, discussing "the nature of uncertainty", "the lure of probabilities", "making sense of uncertainty", "economics and uncertainty" and "living with uncertainty".

    The first part covers the history of probability and statistics, mainly focusing on why these developments came so late in the history of mathematics, even though they are comparatively simple subjects. The second one shows how these mathematical constructs became part of mainstream modeling in economics, business, and other aspects of life. Both of these topics are interesting, but they are covered at a very superficial level so that if you have any familiarity with the topic you will find the first two parts quite unnecessary.

    The third part reminds us that there's inductive, deductive, and abductive reasoning, and that the last one, the reasoning which seeks to provide the best explanation of a unique event, is used very often in practice. From this it goes on to discuss biases alla Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow". While taking a positive view on Kahneman and Tversky, it argues against most of behavioral economics on the grounds that their "rational behavior" is not really rational.
    There are points made about the fact that real people and companies do not really optimize but rather "cope". Further, there are arguments made about how narratives are often much more useful than quantitative modeling.

    Throughout, shallow links are made to various branches of science: physics, evolutionary theory, anthropology, psychology, etc. Since these links are generally superficial and not thought-true in detail, they seem to be included more to prove the point that our authors are very learned and intelligent, than to actually contribute much to the discussion.

    Part four deals with regulations, macroeconomic models, and general failure of models and model-driven thinking in these applications of economic theories. Finally, in the last part the book reiterates some of the main points.

    This brings us to the overall score. The book is often repetitive. By keeping discussions shallow and simple, it is at the same time easy (and fun) to read, but it is also slightly annoying. You will often feel the urge to skim through parts of it.
    You could argue reiteration is a "teaching style" meant to reinforce the point and make you remember key messages - but I'd counter that most of the book is actually quite forgettable. Comparing it to Taleb once more, I think the reason for this is mostly because it is watered down, less charming, and less penetrating.
    What they share is similar topics of discussion, courage to critique and call out influential people, and ability to connect seemingly disparate areas of knowledge into one consistent prose.

    To conclude, I would recommend it to almost everyone - even if you read Taleb.
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  • Annonymous
    5.0 out of 5 stars Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
    Reviewed in Germany on 23 February 2021
    Verified Purchase
    Covid-19 hat es klar gemacht: Wir muessen weitreichende Entscheidungen treffen ohne die Situation vollkommen mit Hintergrundwissen zur Risikoquantifizierung bewerten zu können. Nach welchen Regeln kann die Entscheidung fallen, welche Strategien stehen zur Verfügung. Hier bietet das Buch einen tiefen Einblick in Möglichkeiten. Grundlage sind Erfahrungen und Überlegungen aus der Wirtschaftspolitik und Finanzwesen.
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