Public Policy in an Uncertain World Hardcover – 22 Feb 2013
|New from||Used from|
- Choose from over 13,000 locations across the UK
- Prime members get unlimited deliveries at no additional cost
- Find your preferred location and add it to your address book
- Dispatch to this address when you check out
Frequently Bought Together
Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought
Enter your mobile number below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required.
Getting the download link through email is temporarily not available. Please check back later.
To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number.
To academic readers steeped in [economics and decision theory], [Manski's] account is likely to be of some interest. It includes many useful and important insights (for example, the distinctions among policies based on the principles of 'maximin, ' 'minimax, ' and 'adaptive mini-max' regret) that have substantial implications for real-world policy.--Brian Baird"Science" (04/26/2013)
From the Back Cover
Policy analysis, like all empirical research, combines assumptions and data to draw conclusions about a population of interest. The logic of empirical inference is summarized by the relationship: assumptions + data conclusions. Data alone do not suffice to draw conclusions. Inference requires assumptions that relate the data to the population of interest ... Holding fixed the available data, and presuming avoidance of errors in logic, stronger assumptions yield stronger conclusions. At the extreme, one may achieve certitude by posing sufficiently strong assumptions. [However, ] the credibility of inference decreases with the strength of the assumptions maintained ... Researchers regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative [policy] decisions. Exact predictions of outcomes are common, and expressions of uncertainty are rare. Yet policy predictions are often fragile. Conclusions may rest on critical, unsupported assumptions or on leaps of logic. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible.See all Product Description