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Predictive Analytics: the Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die Hardcover – 8 Mar 2013

4.0 out of 5 stars 13 customer reviews

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Product details

  • Hardcover: 320 pages
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons; 1 edition (8 Mar. 2013)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1118356853
  • ISBN-13: 978-1118356852
  • Product Dimensions: 16 x 2.8 x 23.6 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (13 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 239,159 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • See Complete Table of Contents

Product Description


Praise for Predictive Analytics

"What Nate Silver did for poker and politics, this does for everything else. A broad, well–written book easily accessible to non–nerd readers."
DAVID LEINWEBER, author of Nerds on Wall Street: Math, Machines and Wired Markets

"This book is an operating manual for twenty–first–century life. Drawing predictions from big data is at the heart of nearly everything, whether it′s in science, business, finance, sports, or politics. And Eric Siegel is the ideal guide."
STEPHEN BAKER, author of The Numerati and Final Jeopardy: Man vs. Machine and the Quest to Know Everything

"Simultaneously entertaining, informative, and nuanced. Siegel goes behind the hype and makes the science exciting."
RAYID GHANI, Chief Data Scientist, Obama for America 2012 Campaign

"This is Moneyball for business, government, and healthcare."
JIM STERNE, founder, eMetrics Summit; chairman, Digital Analytics Association

"Predictive Analytics is not only a deeply informative dive into a topic that is critical to virtually every sector of business today, it is also a delight to read."
GEOFFREY MOORE, author of Crossing the Chasm

"The future is right now you′re living in it. Read this book to gain understanding of where we are and where we′re headed."
ROGER CRAIG, record–breaking analytical Jeopardy! champion; CEO, Cotinga

From the Inside Flap

You have been predicted by companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities. Their computers say, "I knew you were going to do that!" These institutions are seizing upon the power to predict whether you′re going to click, buy, lie, or die.

Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats financial risk, fortifies healthcare, conquers spam, toughens crime fighting, and boosts sales.

How? Prediction is powered by the world′s most potent, booming unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by–product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn.

Predictive analytics unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future lifting a bit of the fog off our hazy view of tomorrow means pay dirt.

In this rich, entertaining primer, former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction:

  • What type of mortgage behavior Chase Bank predicted
  • Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they are even aware of it themselves
  • Why early retirement decreases life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights
  • Five reasons why organizations predict death
  • How U.S. Bank and Obama′s 2012 campaign calculated the way to most strongly influence each individual
  • How IBM′s Watson computer beat the human champs on TV′s Jeopardy!
  • How Target figures out you′re pregnant and Hewlett–Packard deduces you′re about to quit your job
  • How judges and parole boards rely on crime–predicting computers to decide who stays in prison and who goes free
  • What′s predicted by Citibank, Facebook, Ford, Google, IBM, the IRS, Match.com, Pfizer, and Wikipedia

A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics affects everyone, every day. Although largely unseen, it drives millions of decisions, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. Whether you are a consumer of it or consumed by it get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.

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Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
I am new to the field of predictive analytics,and so i was expecting this book to somehow 'give me all the answers' regarding 'How' to conduct prediction along with useful nuggets that would have otherwise have taken me a lot of trial and error to figure out.

However, this book is more of a story that shows where the field came from, who are the main players and how it is being used (and will be used) in various sectors and industries. The book is written very well and is successful in engaging the reader and creating 'Interest' in the field. Although there is little detail regarding how to conduct the modelling, the end result of reading this book is increased awareness and interest in this field, the appendix at the end has lots of great references and recommendations for further reading, providing the detail that i was looking for.
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Format: Hardcover

Having no previous knowledge of predictive analytics, I was a little afraid this book might leave me bewildered. How wrong I was! My eyes were opened, my interest caught and held throughout this fascinating book.

There are many questions that come to mind when reading this book, but as you read on they are all very effectively answered by the author.

Predictive analytics are rooted in everyone's daily lives and can have a substantial effect on their future actions. I like the way Eric Siegel explains, giving examples that can be related to, so that even a total novice like myself has some insight into this fascinating subject.

This book is a must for anyone working in marketing. Even if they have previously explored this area, this book will open their eyes to further insight and could prove to be invaluable. It is also a must for anyone wanting to understand how predictive analytics can work.

I particularly liked the chapter on The Data Effect. Predicting the mood of Blog posts was fascinating, as a blogger myself this held my interest. As for the Far Out, Bizarre and Surprising Insights, well you simply have to read it! I devoured every word! Can early retirement really decrease life expectancy? What does your web browsing signify? This book will reveal all and it is written in such a way to hold the readers interest from start to finish.

What effect do predictions have on the business world? What predictions do famous names such as Google, Facebook, Citybank and others make? There is so much to discover in this easy to read and understand book. Anyone interested in the world of analytics will find this fascinating.

I was surprised at how much I enjoyed this book. Very well explained Dr Siegel! I think this deserves five stars.
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Format: Hardcover
One dimension of the "Information Age" is the extent to which those who offer a product or service know much more now than ever before about those who are most likely to buy or lease it. Meanwhile, prospective buyers know more now than ever before about that product or service as well as others with which it competes. The implications of this information have wide and deep impact on marketing initiatives to create or increase demand for the given offering. The challenge to those in marketing is to obtain the information they need. Moreover, it must be accurate and sufficient as well as current. Only then can sound predictions be made.

According to Eric Siegel, however, "Learning from data to predict is only the first step. To take the next step and [begin italics] act on predictions [end italics] is to fearlessly gamble...Launching predictive analytics means to act on its predictions, applying what's been learned, what's been discovered within data. It's a leap many take - you can't win if you don't play." How then to improve one's odds? Read this book.

These are among the questions to which Siegel responds:

o Why must a computer learn in order to predict?
o How can "lousy" predictions be extremely valuable?
o Why a predictive model into a field operation? What are the potential benefits of doing that?
o To what extent (if any) do predictive mechanisms place civil liberties at risk?
o How does our emotional online (social media) chatter "flip the meaning of fraud on its head"?
o What actually makes data predictive?
o How does prediction transform risk to opportunity?
o Why does machine learning require both art and science?
o What kind of predictive model can be understood by everyone?
Read more ›
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Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
A must read for anyone working in technology, digital, or service delivery of any type. Siegel lays out the basics in a really compelling way, and helps set what we can do in future to improve service delivery through data.
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Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
This is a great read. The examples are interesting and relevant to a wide range of areas.

I work in online retail analytics and can immediately see how I might even apply some of the electoral analysis techniques to the business in, say, email marketing etc. Most examples in the book have inspired me to look at problems from a new angle and those that aren't applicable to my domain are interesting nonetheless.

The author doesn't display an arrogance in his tone despite clearly being an expert in the field- I say this after reading some similar books that were far too "smug" for my liking!

I'd recommend this to anyone in the analytics field or anyone even remotely interested in understanding how predictive analytics can be applied to their business.

I'm definitely going to read this again very soon.
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