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Predictioneer: one who uses maths, science and the logic of brazen self-interest to see and shape the future Hardcover – 3 Sep 2009

by
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (Author)
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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (Author)
3.8 out of 5 stars 6 customer reviews
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Product details

  • Hardcover: 272 pages
  • Publisher: Bodley Head (3 Sept. 2009)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 1847920667
  • ISBN-13: 978-1847920669
  • Product Dimensions: 16.3 x 2.5 x 24.2 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (6 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 324,323 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Product Description

Review

"Fruitful reading that will make it difficult to look at the world through quite the same eyes as in one's virginal, pre-game theory days" (Kirkus Reviews)

"Organized thought applied to problems can illuminate and help solve them. This easy and enjoyable read is, in many ways, a how-to book for that very purpose" (George P. Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State)

"Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has demonstrated the power of using game theory and related assumptions of rational and self-seeking behavior in predicting the outcome of important political and legal processes. No one will fail to appreciate and learn from this well-written and always interesting account of his procedures" (Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor Emeritus, Stanford University)

"Predictioneer teaches us that we can predict how a conflict may be resolved if we carefully consider the incentives for all parties in the conflict. In an extraordinary range of applications, from ancient history to tomorrow's headlines, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita demonstrates the power of the game-theoretic approach" (Roger B. Myerson, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor, University of Chicago)

"A fascinating new book" (Daniel Finkelstein Times)

Book Description

A dazzling, provocative and utterly engrossing account of how one man is able to predict the future.

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4.0 out of 5 starsInteresting Reading
By Bob on 22 Nov. 2009
Format: Hardcover
This is an interesting book to read.

The Author explains how he has used Game Theory to predict the outcome of events; in some cases, to change the outcome of events to favour his clients. The principle of Game Theory in his book is that people always remain human and self-interested no matter what their situation or nationality or religion. He emphasises that the process is entirely mathematical and logical and does not rely upon opinions other than in the assessment of the player's self-interests and their saliency to the outcome.

The results of the modelling are often counter-intuitive and run against the outcomes predicted by experts, yet they prove to be correct. He claims that his success rate is better than 90% (which is better than that achieved by experts).

The book is a good reading. It will not suit everyone but will appeal to anyone who wants to know about how to predict or influence outcomes. Businessmen should like this book.

Sadly the book has some weaknesses.

The first is that there is only a superficial explanation about how to make the predictions.

Second, there is nothing of any substance about the maths of Game Theory or how to apply it. Apart from some excellent advice on how to buy the new car you want (or anything else) at the lowest price, the book is short on practical advice (unless it is to hire the Author).

The third weakness is that he has had to disguise the identity of his clients. Although this is understandable, it makes the stories dull and stodgy to follow.

An excellent book, but don't expect to be better able to predict or influence outcomes after reading it, unless you plan to buy a car (superb advice) or hire the Author. Having said that, if you plan to buy a car, the saving will pay for the book.
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1.0 out of 5 starsAm I missing something
By P. Whelerton on 22 Mar. 2010
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
This book feels a little like watching Jaws and never seeing the shark. There are references to the brilliance of the game theory model used but without any real detail. For me, it rendered the book an exercise in self-congratulation ("see how I got it right even when everyone else said something else").

Even the parts of the puzzle that are explained seem to require a huge amount of intricate subject knowledge and rely on some circular logic. Basically you need to know - or be able to predict - the desire and influence level of every single party involved in the decision making process (unlikely) and the outcome needs to be stated as a straight line with extremes of opinion at either end (very restrictive). But surely being able to know what people want is part of the problem and need for prediction? How can anyone but the very closest of observers be in certain posession of those facts for all involved? In which case, one is left having to *predict* those desires and influence levels. And so we return to square one.

A better subtitle would have been "You too can predict outcomes when you know absolutely everything there is to know about every single party in the process and you have a black box like mine which I'm not going to tell you about".
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5.0 out of 5 starsA DEFINITE MUST-READ!
By L. M. Hohmann on 5 Jun. 2016
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
Predictioneer was highly recommended by one of my correspondents as a ‘must read’ – and so I did.
And was astounded right from the start, when reading in Game Theory 101:

“Bayes’ Theorem provides a way to calculate how people digest new information. It assumes that everyone uses such information to check whether what they believe is consistent with their new knowledge….in response to new information that reinforces or contradicts what we thought was true. In that way, the theorem, and the game theorists who rely on it, view beliefs as malleable rather than as unalterable biases lurking in a person’s head.

“In real life there are plenty of incentives for others (and for us) to lie… Therefore, to predict the future we have to reflect on when people are likely to lie and when they are most likely to tell the truth. In engineering the future, our task is to find the right incentives so that people tell the truth, or so that, when it helps our cause, they believe our lies.”

Definitely a book for me, I thought – great lacunae in my knowledge here.
So I read it cover to cover in one day (and a TYGER night).

Can only confirm: it's an eye (and mind) opening must read, to the extent that I wrote a special blogsite explaining further why I think so, as well as giving some further links to teach-ins for the theory and solutions described. Pasting LACUNA DIVE into any internet explorer will find my blog (where I am the CleanEnergyPundit)
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