If there is a more important book on Amazon I don't know of it. Gardiner explains why we are doing so little about a potential climate change catastrophe, when 1% of global GDP could fix it (`so little we would hardly notice it'). The book, even by academic standards is rigorous, meticulous and exceedingly fair-minded but he suggests useful `skips' for the less technically minded. You don't need to be a moral philosopher to understand it.
He very swiftly summarises the scientific consensus - CO2 emissions are up 30% since 1990 and still rising, and we need a cut of 50% to 80% by 2050.
Until very recently average global temperatures have been constant, plus or minus half a degree, for 10,000 years. Depending in part on future emissions, global temperatures will rise this century by between 1.1 C and 6.4 C. There was a 5 C increase between the ice age and now. We are in danger of creating a different planet.
He uses the metaphor of a Perfect Moral Storm to explain why we seem paralysed in the headlights of this possible catastrophe. He argues there are three mutually reinforcing `moral storms'.
The Intergenerational Storm - in the face of conflicts of interest, we usually debate and compromise. But future generations can't talk. They are either not born yet, or are too young to defend themselves against our self-interest. No institution or individual represents future generations in climate talks for example, and governments have short time scales of a few decades at most. So each generation passes the problem on, in a more severe form, and with less time to deal with it.
The Global Storm - we aren't good at global governance, or at enforcing the few agreements we do make. The rich countries have released the CO2, but the poor countries will suffer most from a failure to deal with it.
The Theoretical Storm - We are not good at understanding scientific predictions, nor with risks and uncertainty. The decision making tool Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) often suggests we adapt to warming rather than try to stop it and using technological fixes. But CBA is useless for long term issues: experts differ by factors of 1000, and can conjure up constants for their equations to support whatever case they want to make. Technical fixes advocated by Bjorn Lomborg and others are often `shadow solutions' that do not survive Gardiner's withering analysis.
The combined effect of these three storms leads us into self-deception, moral corruption, and inaction. But if we understand these storms, and face up to their moral challenge, we can better avoid catastophic climate change. This is a stunning and vital book.
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