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David Spiegelhalter

Michael Blastland

The Norm Chronicles: Stories and numbers about danger Paperback – 30 May 2013

by Michael Blastland (Author), David Spiegelhalter (Author)

4.2 232 ratings

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The Norm Chronicles: Stories and numbers about danger
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Meet Norm. He's 31, 5'9", just over 13 stone, and works a 39 hour week. He likes a drink, doesn't do enough exercise and occasionally treats himself to a bar of chocolate (milk). He's a pretty average kind of guy. In fact, he is the average guy in this clever and unusual take on statistical risk, chance, and how these two factors affect our everyday choices. Watch as Norm (who, like all average specimens, feels himself to be uniquely special), and his friends careful Prudence and reckless Kelvin, turns to statistics to help him in life's endless series of choices - should I fly or take the train? Have a baby? Another drink? Or another sausage? Do a charity skydive or get a lift on a motorbike?Because chance and risk aren't just about numbers - it's about what we believe, who we trust and how we feel about the world around us. What we do, or don't do, has as much do with gut instinct as hard facts, with enjoyment as understanding. If you've ever wondered what the statistics in tabloid scare stories really mean, how dangerous horse-riding is compared to class-A drugs, or what governs coincidence, you will find it all here.From a world expert in risk and the bestselling author of The Tiger That Isn't (and creator of BBC Radio 4's More or Less), this is a commonsense (and wildly entertaining) guide to personal risk and decoding the statistics that represent it.

Print length

336 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Profile Books
Publication date

30 May 2013
Dimensions

13.5 x 2.4 x 21.6 cm
ISBN-10

1846686202
ISBN-13

978-1846686207
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Product description

Review

'Fascinating' Daily Mail

'Excellent ... a monumental achievement in data gathering ... a funny and entertaining read ... essential reading before you place your bets in the big lottery of life!'BBC Focus

The statistics are presented with admirable lucidity, using an ingenious method devised by the authors, and may serve to reassure more neurotic readers ... Witty and illuminating, The Norm Chronicles is essential reading for anyone wanting to know whether they should try skydiving, or accept that third glass of wine --FT

Book Description

A far from average book: the real story behind the statistics on risk, chance and choice.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Profile Books; Main edition (30 May 2013)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 336 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1846686202
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1846686207
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 13.5 x 2.4 x 21.6 cm

Best Sellers Rank: 695,165 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- 909 in Mathematical Probability & Statistics
- 1,864 in Popular Maths
- 33,840 in Popular Science

Customer reviews:
4.2 232 ratings

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David Spiegelhalter
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The Norm Chronicles

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 26 October 2013

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I am interested in the different ways in which individuals assess risk and found this book fascinating reading. The risks in various everyday situations are illustrated by imaginary scenarios featuring Norm - Mr Average; Prudence - ultra cautious and Kevin/Kelvin and variations who see no risk in anything or choose to ignore the risks which others would take seriously.

My perception is that many people overestimate the risks of many things and underestimate the risks of things which they regard as safe. Health screening is a typical example of the latter and there are some interesting charts and diagrams in this book which appear to show that health screening may expose you to greater risks than not being screened.

If you want to know whether there is a risk of being hit by an asteroid, having something, or someone fall on you out of an aeroplane, dying in a plane crash, receiving a fatal dose of radiation, being killed or injured in a road accident, developing cancer or being adversely affected by the mobile phone mast at the end of the road then this is the book for you. But you might end up surprised and disturbed by many of the figures.

The book shows how human beings can incorrectly assess risk because of the fear factor. We find it difficult to separate our emotions from the real facts and figures. Headline news of four stabbings in a small area on the same day provoke alarm and fear and the perception that violent crime is increasing when in fact it is falling and the four cases are a statistical anomaly.

The book is written in an amusing and light hearted way but it does have a serious message to convey - that we need to look at the real figures behind the headline scare stories before we pack our bags and move into a nuclear bunker. The book has notes on each chapter and an index.

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StephenDS

Health Authorities, and you, take note.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 13 January 2021

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This book respects the way humans assess risk, by showing how and why it often contrasts dramatically with a statistical calculation of the exact same risk. Along the way it brings out that humans often give weight to the severity of a possible outcome, which is completely ignored in a statistical calculation of risk. This difference accounts for many apparent illogical responses to relative danger. Think innoculation, flying, taking drugs, etc.
The authors try to embody certain bundles of attitude by creating a few representative "risk personalities" to span from the ultra prudent, through the Norm, hence the book's title, and onto the happy go lucky stance. And the authors have done an excellent job in dredging through news reports of actual incidents to illustrate the points they are explaining.
While this approach has drawbacks. I sometimes found the introductory part of a new section confusing. It is worthwhile overall because it unsettles the over-scientific amongst us, i.e. ME!, and points to important considerations that public health authorities ought to take into account when explaining their work to the general public. So, it is an important read in times of a pandemic.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 16 July 2013

Verified Purchase

My initial reaction to this book, apparently written by a wannabe stand-up comedian and a professor of statistics, was negative. Normally I like books to be even in tone and concentrated on the matter in hand. In the end I enjoyed it. Some of the jokes are good, and while some of the stats are a bit out of date the writing is clear and the maths isn't hard.

I would also recommend Adams' Risk and Gigerenzer's Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty If you're new to the notion of social risks I'd steer well clear of anything about banking risk, with their 3 sigma risk calculations and other BS. A 3 sigma is only supposed to happen once in a million years but seems to come round every decade, so save yourself the complicated math. But Bernstein's Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk is worth a read. Nasseem Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is tripe.

I liked the contrast between carefree Kelvin (Kevlin?), careworn Prudence, and the human calculating machine in the middle, the Norm of the title. The professor is also wise enough to acknowledge that some risks are just not computable, that a meteor may at this moment be streaking towards earth or a nearby star about to turn supernova and irradiate us all.

Is it a truism - or is it even true? - that we judge others' risk better than our own? Given that our ultra social species evolved in a high risk environment, it might be so. I read about acts of sheer lunacy in the local paper, and watch my children hesitating beside a swimming pool etc, and wonder. But maybe it's because I'm biased to the Kevlin end of the personal risk thermostat. Does anyone know of any literature on this?

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The Norm Chronicles: Stories and numbers about danger Paperback – 30 May 2013

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