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Next 100 Years, The Paperback – 11 Jan 2010

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George Friedman (Author)
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George Friedman (Author)
3.6 out of 5 stars 47 customer reviews
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Product details

  • Paperback: 272 pages
  • Publisher: ALLISON & BUSBY; POLS edition (11 Jan. 2010)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0749007435
  • ISBN-13: 978-0749007430
  • Product Dimensions: 12.9 x 2.6 x 19.8 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 3.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (47 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 41,045 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Product Description

Review

'A unique combination of cold-eyed realism and boldly confident fortune-telling' Publishers Weekly

About the Author

GEORGE FRIEDMANis founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, which specializes in geopolitical forecasting. Prior to this Friedman was chairman of the global intelligence company Stratfor, which he founded in 1996. Friedman is the author of six books, including theNew York Times bestsellersThe Next DecadeandThe Next 100 Years.He lives in Austin, Texas.

" --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

1.0 out of 5 starsWish fulfillment based on false premises
By Aquilonian on 14 July 2015
Format: Paperback
The one good thing about this book is that it is mentally stimulating. I have made more marginal annotations on it than any book I’ve ever read. However, the vast majority of my comments are highly critical.

Rather than demolish the book brick by brick I will briefly examine the general principles on which Friedman operates.

Firstly he takes a deterministic and impersonal view of history in which individuals don’t matter. Marx said the same but he was wrong too. Consider for example if we’d had the appeaser Lord Halifax as PM in 1940 instead of Churchill.

He likens history and politics to a game of chess in which all possible moves are narrowly constrained. This is a false analogy because chess pieces just go where the players put them- unlike people.

He assumes (like mainstream economists) that leaders are rational actors, motivated only by (mainly short term) self interest, and that leaders and their countries can be treated as interchangeable, as in “Iran does this and Israel does that.” And like mainstream economics this is all nonsense. People’s motivation is mostly irrational, and is based on very imperfect knowledge. On the other hand people- even national leaders- are not always entirely selfish. The selfish option for Britain in 1940 would have been appeasing Hitler and remaining neutral. The upper classes and the royals largely favoured this but the country as a whole did not. Also, not all national leaders act even for the short term apparent benefit of their nation- many work only for the interests of one class, region, religion, tribe or even simply for their own family.

He totally neglects the role of religious belief and national identity in collective motivation- except, oddly, in the case of Mexicans!Read more ›
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1.0 out of 5 starsBig disappointment!
By F. L. P. Souza on 6 Jan. 2010
Format: Paperback
Friedman totally misses the point by contradicting his own opening statements about "identifying long-term underlying trends". He bases the whole book on misguided assumptions and geo-politics. Alvin Toffler pointed out 20 years ago that geo-politics is on the way out...
The real "long-term underlying trends" are not about "dominating sea-trade"! And they are not about waging wars. Friedman thinks that "unconventional wars" are about shooting it out in spaceships. That is "Flash Gordon thinking", not forecasting...
Unconventional wars are actually about guerilla warfare, terrorism, inciting civil unrest, hacking computers. Looking into the next 100 years, the real questions are about how will countries try to exert influence over one another? How will economic disputes be resolved? Will missile threats be replaced by cyber-threats? Or by an attack on a country's currency? What about biological threats, like spreading H1N1 virus?
Friedman assumes that history will repeat itself in the same way. Big mistake. History sometimes repeats itself (not as often as people are led to think), but always in a different shape or form. Japan will not go to war against the US. Poland will not spark another war in Europe. Turkey will not try to re-enact the Otoman Empire. These are all ridiculous forecasts based on 19th Century assumptions.
A forecast of the next 100 years should challenge us to think about what kind of political issues will be relevant. For instance:
1. Will we move from a "bi-polar" world (20th Century US capitalism versus Russian communism) towards a truly multi-lateral world in which five blocks will have almost equal economic power, without clear dominance of one over the others? (US, Europe, China, India, South America?).
2.Read more ›
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3.0 out of 5 starsA book of 3 parts.
By Mr. R. Englander on 30 Jan. 2011
Format: Paperback
The Next 100 Years : A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman is a book of 3 parts. Great, fantastical, and good. George takes us on a journey of macro socio, politico, eco, and geo (and a mix of all 4) and by tracing back through history and cycles within it, has forecast what he believes to be the power struggles over the next century.

It is fascinating stuff initially, where he defines fault lines in terms of tension points around the globe and which countries will strive to make political, economic, social or geographical moves and against whom as the balance of power within continents shift and moves. It's certainly interesting stuff and as he acknowledges, he presents this in the full knowledge that he won't be around to see whether he was right or wrong (but he will I'm sure have made a good living from doing it) and so you can't really challenge his assumptions (or forecasts) too greatly.

Where the book gets a bit fantastical is around 2050 when we have the description of a world war, controlled by space centers, and troops in robotic "Iron Man" type costumes being fed electricity from Solar beams that have been microwave blasted down from solar panels on the moon. The realities of the first main section of the book seem light years away at this point (and who am I again to really challenge these assumptions?) but it does come back down to Earth again as we conclude the century with Mexico and the US in a power struggle for the control of North America.Read more ›
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Most Recent Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 stars2016 - Heartily recommended. Predictions already coming true.

It's now the end of 2016 and this book was written in 2009 and already some of the predictions are being proven correct. Read more

Published 1 month ago by KEVIN WILSON
4.0 out of 5 starsFour Stars

Good buy.

Published 3 months ago by Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars

Highly recommended

Published 4 months ago by Jock McGrumpy
5.0 out of 5 starsA challenging and uncomfortable, yet well thought out read.

An Interesting, unique and well thought out prediction of the next hundred years. Time will tell, but as mentioned in the book, human beings are the most unpredictable, yet... Read more

Published 10 months ago by britcheesehead
5.0 out of 5 starsQuite readable but lacking rigour.

Good book, easy to read. Friedman lacks a bit of the rigour of many scholars, but an entertaining read and some good predictions which I agree with.

Published 11 months ago by Mr Rene Sajan
5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars

Frightening!

Published 15 months ago by WEF II
4.0 out of 5 starsFirst half of the book - 5 stars. Second half - 2 stars

First half of the book was really useful - a thorough analysis of the key factors influencing different regions of the world and the discussion on possible conflicts. Read more

Published 16 months ago by Ulo Kallas
4.0 out of 5 starsHeady stuff

The author really has the power to make you think differently about current and past historical events and the future. A very good read.

Published 18 months ago by Terry Conway
4.0 out of 5 starsA brief future-history of the world

A very interesting idea for a book where the author attempts to hypothesize the next 100 years of geopolitics from future conflicts to social issues and scientific developments. Read more

Published 18 months ago by Manx_Giraffe
5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars

Interesting reading

Published on 30 Nov. 2014 by tomas pascual

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