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An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic Paperback – 7 Feb 2002

by Ian Hacking (Author)
5.0 out of 5 stars 2 customer reviews
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Frequently Bought Together

  • An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic
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  • The Taming of Chance (Ideas in Context)
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  • The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas About Probability Induction and Statistical Inference (Cambridge Series on Statistical & Probabilistic Mathematics)
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Product details

  • Paperback: 320 pages
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press (7 Feb. 2002)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0521775019
  • ISBN-13: 978-0521775014
  • Product Dimensions: 17.7 x 1.7 x 25.3 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 130,453 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Product Description

Review

'Hacking's book excels … especially in the practical, concrete examples. It uses minimal mathematics and presumes no acquaintance with symbolic logic. It is well suited for graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in inductive logic or related areas (such as philosophy of science or methodology courses in particular empirical sciences). The book gives a nice introduction to inductive logic.' Harry Gensler, The Times Higher Education Supplement

'This is, as intended, a very introductory text in probability and inductive logic.' Zentralblatt für Mathematik

Book Description

This is an introductory 2001 textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world's foremost philosophers of science. It offers a comprehensive course covering all basic definitions of induction and probability, and considers such topics as decision theory, Bayesianism, frequency ideas, and the philosophical problem of induction.

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5.0 out of 5 starsAn antidote to mindless reasoning
By Amazon Customer on 28 Feb. 2004
Format: Paperback
Our ancestors had to decide how safe it was to enter a cave, we have to decide how safe it is to buy a stock or to get a new job. Both are inductions, and we are still not very good at them. But, unlike our ancestors, we have come to massively underestimate the problem and often take evidence at face value, especially when fashioned as "scientific". Hacking's introduction is an excellent antidote to the sorry custom of drawing mindless conclusions from seemingly sophisticated but invalid probabilistic reasoning. I also recommend reading Hacking's other two books on the history probability: The Emergence of Probability and The Taming of Chance.
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5.0 out of 5 starsPerfection
By Richard Wilson on 25 Jun. 2014
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
It was perfect. There was no damage at all. It was perfect. Many thanks. I have since come back to buy more books.
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews on Amazon.com (beta)

Amazon.com: 4.6 out of 5 stars 16 reviews
37 of 42 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars For anyone, any thinker 6 Jun. 2002
By Kindle Customer - Published on Amazon.com
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
I would HIGHLY recommend this book for anyone (including business men) who must make decisions with incomplete information and under uncertainty. Instead of focusing on the mechanics of statistics, it focuses on how to think about risky propositions.
I bought this book while working on a particular problem in machine learning, at a point where I had started realizing that I was losing clarity on my definition of probability. I was using the mechanics, but didn't clearly understand why the use was valid. This seemed an odd and embarrassing circumstance at the time, how could I not understand what "probability" means? As it turns out this confusion is one shared broadly in history of science, and in current applications of statistical mechanics.
Prof Hacking's writing is clear and entertaining, clearly aimed at engaging the reading audience.
2 of 3 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Connecting The Dots 11 Aug. 2009
By Patras - Published on Amazon.com
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
This book clearly explains ideas in logic and in statistics/probability courses I have taken, and includes several insights new to me. It contains several real world exercises and answers. For me it's hard to put down. Every minute spent going through it has been very much worth it.
7 of 7 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars First Rate Introductory Text 30 Jan. 2009
By R. Albin - Published on Amazon.com
Format: Paperback
This is a first rate introductory text prepared by a well known philosopher and expert on the logic and history of probability & statistics. The approach is disarmingly simple. Hacking avoids complicated math and proofs and teaches via the intuitive appeals to the underlying logic of these topics. Hacking begins with an intuitively based discussion of basic features of probability theory, expectation, Bayes rule, and decision analysis. This is followed by a particularly good exposition of the different senses of probability; belief-Bayesian and frequentist. Hacking shows how both approaches can be used fruitfully and rigorously in even mundane problems. These sections are followed by very nice chapters on the underlying logic of normal distributions, statistical hypothesis testing, and confidence intervals. This is the diametrical opposite of the cookbook approach used often in many statistics books and provides very nice understanding of key features of statistical methods. I never appreciated the strength of the confidence interval approach before reading this book. Hacking concludes with some concise but thoughtful chapters on the philosophical implications of these ideas, particularly as applied to the classic problem of induction. The quality of writing is excellent and the book features a large number of good examples and problems to work through. Strongly recommended to individuals who want to learn more about the basis of statistical methods.
8 of 9 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Best text on logic and philosophy of probability 21 Jun. 2009
By David J. Aldous - Published on Amazon.com
Format: Paperback
Maybe 1/3 of a college course in probability and statistics consists of a rapid trip, in math language, through basic conceptual ideas such as the interpretation of "probability", Bayes rule, significance tests and confidence intervals. This book, aimed at students of philosophy, treats this material and the associated math much more slowly and carefully -- relating probability to logic and philosophy, not just to math. For instance it has clear discussions of the principle of maximizing expected utility; the frequentist/Bayes philosophies and the coherence ideas emphasized by Bayesian apologists; the logic of significance tests and confidence intervals. Concepts are illustrated by creative selection of hypothetical story examples -- much more interesting than the usual math textbooks full of X's and Y's. The final 20 pages are a rather big jump toward technical philosophy -- arguing that both Bayesian and frequentist philosophies comprise "evasions" rather than "solutions" of "the problem of induction".

For a textbook, rather than bedtime reading, on this material it is hard to imagine a better treatment. My only criticism -- perhaps a criticism of analytic philosophy in general -- is that it seems more concerned with teaching the reader how to critique other people's arguments that with teaching them how to say anything constructive about the real world.
51 of 57 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars What do you mean, "probably"? 14 Feb. 2002
By Berel Dov Lerner - Published on Amazon.com
Format: Paperback
The best thing about this book is that it teachs basic probability theory while keeping the reader constantly aware of the on-going debate regarding what it means to talk in terms of probabilities, and of how that debate has shaped the development of probability theory. If you are a student taking a course in probability and statistics who would like to genuinely understand the conceptual basis of all those formulas they are teaching you, I suggest you read this book.
Some readers will be disappointed by this book. Since the book concentrates on the conceptual basis of probability and inductive logic, it does not give the reader enough technical tools to really do much applied mathematics. On the other hand, by the time Hacking gets around to discussing what students of philosophy will likely view as the big philosophical pay-off of probability theory (i.e. Bayesian and frequentist contributions to the problem of justifying induction) he devotes to them a mere 20 pages of not terribly deep discussion.
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