I've taken a keen interest in Professor Flyvbjerg's work for a number of years and luckily much of his academic writing is freely available to read online (unlike a lot of other academic writing). As such I was excited to read his first book for a popular audience and whilst this short book (200 pages not including references) naturally lacks the depth of some of his other work this is a fine digest of his ideas and one I would happily recommend to my fellow project professionals as well as to the layman.
Professor Flyvbjerg has made it his life's work to gather data on large projects and to use this to build an understanding of what makes a project successful or, as this book often focuses on, what make it fail. The book draws examples from the huge number of examples of projects that have massively overrun their budgets and schedules and in some cases failed to deliver any benefits at all. With his co-writer Dan Gardner (whose book Risk I would also recommend), the author tells relatable stories that initially focus on the human element of these failures: over commitment, poor planning, underestimating risk, hubris and optimism. Almost inevitably this draws the behavioural economics work of Daniel Kahneman into the picture (I'm not sure I've read many 'Smart Thinking' type books that don't).
The variety of case studies from the Sydney Opera House to Pixar Studios make for an engaging and highly readable book and provide fine examples to support the arguments presented for How Big Things Get Done. An example of a house restoration project gone awry brings the thesis to a human level (although not exactly relatable, the renovation goes over budget by the price of about five average houses in the UK).
No spoilers here for anyone who follows Professor Flyvbjerg's work, his main argument is for a data focused approach to projects using similar shaped projects as a basis for planning, and a repeatable modular approach to design rather than building huge one offs. This book is a neat and easily readable presentation of that thesis with easily understood examples. Hopefully it will feature in the bedside reading of policy makers and ultimately lead to a wider acceptance of the ideas within.
If there are weaknesses in the book they are often due to the lack of depth that leads to further questions. Thankfully there are pages and pages of references for further reading to explore. That said some of the questions are ones that don't yet have answers. For example the data available for reference class forecasting is not as widely available as it should be and despite the availability of some higher level data on government websites, much of the data for planning tends to be walled in due to its commercial value in competitive markets. Given the success of open source in software I've often thought about how making this data more available should be a policy focus.
I was frustrated by the short shrift given to outlier projects on the left hand side of the distribution (within schedule, under budget etc.) These are disregarded as little more than good stories for the likes of Malcolm Gladwell, whereas I think there probably are lessons to be learned about avoiding some of the bottlenecks and entrenched bureaucracy that slow down projects and cause construction to be one of industries with the lowest productivity in the UK. I'm not calling for deregulation or safety shortcuts but there are surely examples of innovation in these left of the curve projects that make them equally as worth studying as those expensive monsters on the right of the curve.
I'd like to also have read a little more about Professor Flyvbjerg's thoughts on planning. He argues convincingly that time, effort and money spent on planning at the start is better spent than that spent in delivery. I cannot disagree and there are plenty of examples in the news right now to support this (High Speed 2 for one). However the planning paralysis we seen in the UK can probably be put forward as an argument for the alternative approach of just getting on with it. Hinkley Point C would be generating electricity now if it hadn't lingered for so long. The planning documents for Sizewell C number tens of times more than those required for Hinkley Point C, a power station that it is supposedly a cookie cutter copy of. I think of the city of Bristol's proposed underground system. Local government officials argue against the project saying it will never get done and billions would be swallowed in planning by consultants. The money would be better spent on buses. This is the world of planning we exist in and whilst it might not be as expensive as a failed undersea tunnel, it can certainly be just as much of a blocker on big things getting done.
The book doesn't really delve too deeply into the realms of policy making. The solution to all of these examples is long term strategy that is immune to the whims of government and the book doesn't really cover this in depth (except where it discusses examples of how budgets are often sized to be politically expedient).
Those things being said I did spend most of my time reading this book quietly nodding my head in recognition. In my career I've seen examples of both the good behaviours and bad behaviours described, in both individuals and in organisations. It certainly provokes thought and with the support of government clients and cost sensitive companies many of its ideas could become engrained in project commissioning and delivery. The difficulties of HS2 and Hinkley Point in the UK must be feeding an appetite for more agile delivery of infrastructure projects. This book doesn't have all the answers but it certainly provides a great framework for getting big things done in the future.
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Top reviews from United Kingdom
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Top reviews from other countries
LM
Most big projects fail 91% of the time. The first project database of its kind!
Reviewed in the United States on 19 November 2024slovon
A very readable and insightful way of presenting project management, esp. risks
Reviewed in Germany on 9 October 2024
