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The Hell of Good Intentions: America's Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy Hardcover – Illustrated, 16 Oct. 2018
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From the New York Times–bestselling author Stephen M. Walt, The Hell of Good Intentions dissects the faults and foibles of recent American foreign policy—explaining why it has been plagued by disasters like the “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan and outlining what can be done to fix it.
In 1992, the United States stood at the pinnacle of world power and Americans were confident that a new era of peace and prosperity was at hand. Twenty-five years later, those hopes have been dashed. Relations with Russia and China have soured, the European Union is wobbling, nationalism and populism are on the rise, and the United States is stuck in costly and pointless wars that have squandered trillions of dollars and undermined its influence around the world.
The root of this dismal record, Walt argues, is the American foreign policy establishment’s stubborn commitment to a strategy of “liberal hegemony.” Since the end of the Cold War, Republicans and Democrats alike have tried to use U.S. power to spread democracy, open markets, and other liberal values into every nook and cranny of the planet. This strategy was doomed to fail, but its proponents in the foreign policy elite were never held accountable and kept repeating the same mistakes.
Donald Trump won the presidency promising to end the misguided policies of the foreign policy “Blob” and to pursue a wiser approach. But his erratic and impulsive style of governing, combined with a deeply flawed understanding of world politics, are making a bad situation worse. The best alternative, Walt argues, is a return to the realist strategy of “offshore balancing,” which eschews regime change, nation-building, and other forms of global social engineering. The American people would surely welcome a more restrained foreign policy, one that allowed greater attention to problems here at home. This long-overdue shift will require abandoning the futile quest for liberal hegemony and building a foreign policy establishment with a more realistic view of American power.
Clear-eyed, candid, and elegantly written, Stephen M. Walt’s The Hell of Good Intentions offers both a compelling diagnosis of America’s recent foreign policy follies and a proven formula for renewed success.
- ISBN-100374280037
- ISBN-13978-0374280031
- EditionIllustrated
- PublisherFarrar, Straus & Giroux Inc
- Publication date16 Oct. 2018
- LanguageEnglish
- Dimensions16.18 x 3.81 x 23.7 cm
- Print length400 pages
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- Publisher : Farrar, Straus & Giroux Inc; Illustrated edition (16 Oct. 2018)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 400 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0374280037
- ISBN-13 : 978-0374280031
- Dimensions : 16.18 x 3.81 x 23.7 cm
- Best Sellers Rank: 982,210 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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The author examines the policy known as liberal hegemomy, a policy that aims to turn as many countries as possible into liberal democracies. In other words remake the world in America's image
The author explores the failings of this polcy and suggests an alternative that embraces nationalism and realism.
This is an important book. Highly recommended
Like so many of its genre this seems to have all the makings of an intersting 15,000 word essay, until someone came along and suggested it should be a book. Endless repetitions and mindless verbiage later it's published
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Walt believes that the Washington foreign policy elite is arrogant, out of touch and still stuck in the 1990s. When the Cold War ended the U.S. emerged as the “winner” and was the world’s only superpower. This victory went to many people's heads in Washington. They believed in American exceptionalism and that the U.S. had an almost divine right to run the world. American power supposedly rivaled imperial Rome. Like Rome, Washington wanted to discourage potential rivals, the so-called Wolfowitz Doctrine. Jeffrey Sachs a professor at Columbia University, believes this helps explain the current hostility to China. In China, America is facing its first serious economic competitor since it overtook Britain in the 19th century. As Harvard professor Graham Allison has pointed out in his book, “Destined for War” we should try and avoid a war with China, it probably won’t end well.
Washington has also wanted to spread democracy and liberal economics within an American sphere of influence that encompassed the rest of the world. It was believed that the U.S. could use its power to shape the world so that democracy, human rights, economic interdependence, and durable peace would prevail. The countries helped would continue to look to America for leadership. Germany, Japan, and South Korea were the main examples. Walt defines “liberal hegemony” as something that “seeks to use American power to defend and spread the traditional liberal principles of individual freedom, democratic governance, and a market-based economy.”
Walt points out that Clinton, Bush, and Obama all shared similar foreign policy objectives. He argues that their agenda rested on three mistaken assumptions. Firstly, other countries will welcome U.S.-style liberalism. It was assumed that the Muslim world could be Americanized. The second, that the U.S. could successfully promote democratic values worldwide. Non-democratic regimes that were opposed to American influence could be sanctioned and threatened with force. When tougher measures were required, the U.S. could use its powerful military to remove despotic regimes and impose democracy. Unfortunately, regime change using military force has not gone well in Afghanistan and Iraq. Nation building in the Muslim world has proved expensive in terms of blood and treasure. Thirdly, old-fashioned ideas like "balance of power" politics, spheres of influence, and nationalism were obsolete. However, China and Russia are increasingly behaving like great powers from the past. They are trying to maintain spheres of influence along their borders and in Ukraine and the South China Sea.
The book suggests that the Washington elite believes it is America’s destiny to lead the world forever. However, there is an increasing number of countries who are rejecting American leadership, especially with Trump as president. I was in Europe recently, and President Macron of France had just created a stir by declaring that the EU needed its own army to protect itself from Russia, China, and the U.S. Merkel seemed to agree with him. Europeans are happy to receive American protection but they view the world differently. France did not send troops to help in Vietnam or Iraq, but it works with the U.S. in Africa. The French and the EU don’t regard themselves as American puppets.
The spread of liberal democracy once seemed inevitable. Walt argues that “both the overall condition of the world and America’s status within it had declined steadily and significantly between 1993 and 2016." The number of authoritarian regimes globally is increasing. Relations with Russia and China have soured, the Middle East is a mess, and democratic institutions overseas are being eroded. China will never become a democracy. Russians seem happy with a strong man like Putin as their leader. In Walt’s telling, “the energetic pursuit of liberal hegemony was mostly a failure. … By 2017, in fact, democracy was in retreat in many places and under considerable strain in the U.S. itself.”
The invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq were based on the assumption that the U.S. military could clear the way for nation-building and a new democratic order would emerge. In both countries, stability and democracy, are still far off, despite the cost. Almost 7,000 members of the military have died in both wars and the financial costs are estimated at about $5.6 trillion. We can’t afford too many similar wars of choice. The U.S. has 800 bases around the world and we have defense pacts with 69 countries. If America's global footprint was reduced a lot of people in Washington and in the defense industry would have to find new careers, so we still pretend it is 1993 and the U.S. is all powerful. Walt believes that part of the defense budget would be better spent at home, upgrading the country's infrastructure.
If you travel to Shanghai you notice that the airport is much more impressive than any of our airports, especially La Guardia. Chinese trains, roads, and bridges are also very modern. A lot of U.S. infrastructure looks Third World in comparison. China, in PPP terms, already has the world’s largest economy. Unfortunately, we seem to be pushing Russia and China together. Both view the presence of the U.S. military close to their borders as provocative. Graham Allison believes this confrontational approach is dangerous.
Walt spends a lot of time attacking Washington’s foreign policy elites. He claims that their attempts to make the world “in our image” have failed. Walt argues that government officials and media commentators who have promoted disastrous wars suffer no consequences and are welcomed back into circles of power — and that “it is the dissidents and critics who end up marginalized or penalized, even when they are proved right.” John Bolton was a neo-conservative and an enthusiastic supporter of the Iraq War, he also advocated regime change in Iran and North Korea. He's now Trump’s National Security Advisor. Walt believes the foreign policy elite since the Clinton era have been able to avoid accountability and maintain influence despite past blunders. Walt asserts that their recurring failures are a big reason why Donald Trump was elected.
Trump on the campaign trail had challenged a whole series of orthodoxies in American foreign policy. These included: the assumption that the U.S. was the indispensable power and was needed to run a liberal world order. He also took aim at NATO and free trade agreements, like NAFTA. Trump was dismissed as an idiot by the foreign policy elite, especially those who identified as Republicans. However, Trump's appointment of John Bolton indicates that he may now be under the spell of the Washington foreign policy establishment. Resistance may be futile, even for somebody like Trump.
Walt proposes a program of “offshore balancing” that would emphasize American interests and promote world peace. This includes the abandonment of threats of regime change, as with those recently directed against North Korea. Walt believes that “countries usually seek nuclear weapons because they fear being attacked and want a powerful deterrent, and U.S. efforts at regime change heighten such fears.” In 2003 Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi agreed to eliminate his country's nuclear program in return for peace and assurances that Libya would not be attacked. Within a few years, Libya was attacked by the U.S., France and Britain and Gadhafi was overthrown and killed by rebels empowered by Washington. The lessons for North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran are perhaps, don’t give up your nukes no matter what promises are made.
Walt concludes that the U.S. should ditch its commitment to liberal internationalism, reduce its defense spending and worldwide military commitments, direct the savings toward solving domestic problems, and insist that its wealthy allies in Europe and Asia take the lead in defending themselves rather than relying indefinitely on U.S. protection. A war with Russia and China would not be a good idea, it would be expensive and we might lose. Walt is also skeptical of democracy promotion, nation-building, and armed humanitarian intervention. These schemes are often marked by ignorance about the history and culture of other countries. This was demonstrated in Afghanistan and Iraq. For example, members of the Taliban probably don't aspire to work at a Walmart or a McDonald's.
Walt suggests that our foreign policy experts are mistaken in assuming that America can remain the dominant global power indefinitely. China's economy is growing fast. Our mounting national debt and unpopularity in many parts of the world indicate that perhaps we need to rethink our global ambitions. We might also need to start modifying our behavior. Instead of remaking the world in America’s image, Walt suggests focusing U.S. foreign policy on upholding the balance of power in Europe, East Asia, and the Persian Gulf. Walt would favor intervention “only when one or more of those balances was in danger of breaking down.” To conclude, the author believes America is on the wrong track and is pursuing a strategy it can no longer afford. He believes we need to go to back to basics and reduce our overseas commitments.
タイトルの”Good intension"とは冷戦以降、アメリカの歴代政権が進めてきた全世界での民主化推進政策を指します。また、”Hell"とはその結果によっておこった状況、具体的には中東やアフガンでの泥沼、終わりが無い対外軍事活動、アメリカ国内での疲弊を指します。作中では「もし、ヒラリークリントンが大統領に成ったら歴代政権と同じように全世界での民主化推進政策をやっただろう」と言ってましたが、これはバイデン政権にも当てはまるでしょう。
一方、著者はトランプ氏の外交政策にも意義を唱えてます。「アメリカ・ファースト」を掲げたものの、既存の同盟関係を崩すわけにはいかず、結果2003年イラク戦争のような「単独行動主義」に陥ってると指摘します。
著者は代替案として「オフショア・シェアリング」を提唱しています。これは各地域は各地域の国々に任せるとの考えです。しかし、同盟関係を介し、軍事・経済支援するのと何が変わらないのかよく分かりませんでした。
ともあれ、トランプ(「アメリカ・ファースト」)でもバイデン(リベラル)でもない第三の外交政策として提言したのは意味があると思います
• Our military operations have been costly in both dollars and lives but have had scant success;
• The number of violent extremists and the number of places where they are active is greater now then when Al Qaeda first emerged;
• Our military efforts have created resentment because of civilian casualties;
• Our foreign activities have taken time, attention and resources away from pressing domestic concerns; and
• Efforts to promote democracy and human rights have gone into reverse with a decline in many countries of political rights and civil liberties.
In spite of this, LH continues to be advocated almost universally in the media and by political and foreign policy commentators. People who criticize its exercise are ostracized. Nevertheless, Walt names proponent’s names and few well known political and military spokesmen are spared.
Walt reviews Trump’s foreign policy and military efforts and concludes he has made matters worse.
Walt presents a very persuasive alternative strategy that he calls Offshore Balancing. It would entail a continued strong military but much less active military involvement in other countries and more use of diplomacy.
This is truly a book well worth reading.