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GDP – A Brief but Affectionate History Hardcover – 28 Jan. 2014

4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 319 ratings

Why did the size of the U.S. economy increase by 3 percent on one day in mid-2013--or Ghana's balloon by 60 percent overnight in 2010? Why did the U.K. financial industry show its fastest expansion ever at the end of 2008--just as the world's financial system went into meltdown? And why was Greece's chief statistician charged with treason in 2013 for apparently doing nothing more than trying to accurately report the size of his country's economy? The answers to all these questions lie in the way we define and measure national economies around the world: Gross Domestic Product. This entertaining and informative book tells the story of GDP, making sense of a statistic that appears constantly in the news, business, and politics, and that seems to rule our lives--but that hardly anyone actually understands. Diane Coyle traces the history of this artificial, abstract, complex, but exceedingly important statistic from its eighteenth- and nineteenth-century precursors through its invention in the 1940s and its postwar golden age, and then through the Great Crash up to today. The reader learns why this standard measure of the size of a country's economy was invented, how it has changed over the decades, and what its strengths and weaknesses are. The book explains why even small changes in GDP can decide elections, influence major political decisions, and determine whether countries can keep borrowing or be thrown into recession. The book ends by making the case that GDP was a good measure for the twentieth century but is increasingly inappropriate for a twenty-first-century economy driven by innovation, services, and intangible goods.

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Review

Winner of the 2015 Bronze Medal in Economics, Axiom Business Book Awards One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Books of 2014 One of Choice's Outstanding Academic Titles for 2014 One of FA-mag.com's Books of the Year 2014 One of "The Books Quartz Read" in 2014 One of Minnpost.com's 'Three (plus) books for the econ buff on your list' 2014 Longlisted for the Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year 2014 "Coyle's book GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History ... provide[s] comprehensive and readable accounts of the history of national income and of the role of GDP in contemporary political and economic life."--David Throsby, Times Literary Supplement "GDP is, as Diane Coyle points out in her entertaining and informative GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History, a bodge, an ongoing argument."--John Lanchester, London Review of Books "[A] little charmer of a book ... GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History is just what the title promises... Cowperthwaite himself would nod in agreement over Ms. Coyle's informed discussion of what the GDP misses and how it misfires... Ms. Coyle--a graceful and witty writer, by the way--recounts familiar problems and adds some new ones... [E]xcellent."--James Grant, Wall Street Journal "Anyone who wants to know how GDP and the SNA have come to play such important roles in economic policy-making will gain from reading Coyle's book. As will anyone who wants to gain more understanding of the concept's strengths and weaknesses."--Nicholas Oulton, Science "Diane Coyle's new book, GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History, is a timely contribution to discussions of modern economic performance."--Arnold Kling, American "[E]xcellent."--Adam Creighton, The Australian "Diane Coyle's book is as good a simple guide as we are likely to see."--Samuel Brittan, Financial Times "Coyle does good work explicating a topic that few understand, even if it affects each of us daily. A pleasure for facts-and-numbers geeks, though accessibly written and full of meaningful real-world examples."--Kirkus Reviews "[S]mart and lucid... [S]hort but masterful."--Todd G. Buchholz, Finance & Development "[G]reat (and well-timed) new book."--Uri Friedman, The Atlantic "In a charming and accessible new book, Diane Coyle untangles the history, assumptions, challenges and shortcomings of this popular rhetorical device, which has become so central to policy debates around the world... Coyle's book is a good primer for the average citizen as well as the seasoned economist."--Adam Gurri, Umlaut "[I]t is interesting and important, particularly when it comes to the emphasis now given to GDP, and the inadequacies of this now time-honoured measurement of how our economies are doing... With clarity and precision, she explains its strengths and weaknesses."--Peter Day, BBC News Business "Diane Coyle has bravely attempted in a recent book to make the subject once more accessible, and even interesting."--John Kay, Financial Times "[T]his is as engaging a book about GDP as you could ever hope to read. It falls into that genre of books that are 'biographies of things'--be they histories of longitude, the number zero or the potato--and is both enlightening and entertaining."--Andrew Sawers, FS Focus "GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History is a fascinating 140-page book that I cannot recommend highly enough. This is simply the best book on GDP that I've ever seen."--John Mauldin "As a potted history of approaches to quantifying national output from the 18th century onward, GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History deserves high marks. It is particularly edifying to learn about the military motivation behind the initial attempts."--Martin S. Fridson, Financial Analysts Journal "The strongest part of the book charts the development of national accounting from the 17th century through to the creation of GDP itself and its literal and metaphorical rises and falls in the 20th and 21st centuries... This is lively and surprisingly readable stuff."--Eilis Lawlor, LSE Review of Books "Coyle has written an engaging, introductory to mid-level book on the GDP that makes sense of a statistic that hardly anyone actually understands... It does not require any training in economics, but it covers many topics that even professional economists would find beneficial, including an argument that GDP is an increasingly inappropriate measure for the 21st century."--Choice "[A] little charmer of a book."--Wall Street Journal (A Best Non-Fiction Book of 2014) "GDP is a thought-provoking account of how the gross domestic product statistic came to be so important... The book is a useful and timely contribution."--Louise Rawlings, Economic Record "Coyle is surely right when she says that GDP is not outmoded, despite all the problems. The people who use GDP need to understand what it is and what it isn't, and to know what are its strengths and weaknesses. They should read this invaluable and accessible guide."--Bill Allen, Business Economists "Coyle's account of the emergence and hegemony of GDP is a timely one, capturing in lucid historical detail the major conceptual weaknesses in the construction and use of GDP and the menu of alternative measures one might turn to."--Atiyab Sultan, Cambridge Humanities Review "Coyle takes the reader on a whistle-stop tour of the development workhorse of economic modeling and analysis... The book developed out of a talk by the author in 2011 and it retains the liveliness of a performance."--Central Banking Journal "Coyle's greatest achievement is to succinctly describe the history of the concept as it emerged in the 1940s as a result of wartime politics obsessed with measuring productive capacity in an economy."--Atiyab Sultan, Cambridge Humanities Review "Diane Coyle's eloquently written and accessible book provides a rich account of the history of GDP."--Johannes Hirata, International Review of Economics "A lively account."--Gillian Tett, Financial Times

From the Inside Flap

"Diane Coyle renders GDP accessible and introduces a much-needed historical perspective to the discourse of what we measure and why. A must-read for those interested in the far-reaching impact of GDP on the global economy, just as we seek ways to go beyond it."--Angel Gurría, secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

"Countries are judged by their success in producing GDP. But what is it and where do those numbers reported on television come from? Diane Coyle makes GDP come to life--we see its strengths and its fallibilities, and we learn to understand and respect both."--Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, 2003-2013

"This is an engaging and witty but also profoundly important book. Diane Coyle clearly and elegantly explains the fundamental difficulties of GDP--and how this headline figure is liable to radical change by apparently simple changes in method. She also provides a nice treatment of alternative proposals such as happiness surveys."--Harold James, author ofMaking the European Monetary Union

"Well written, interesting, and useful, this book will appeal to many readers. I learned a lot from it."--Robert Hahn, University of Oxford

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ 0691156794
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Princeton University Press (28 Jan. 2014)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 168 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 9780691156798
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0691156798
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 15.24 x 1.91 x 22.86 cm
  • Customer reviews:
    4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 319 ratings

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Diane Coyle
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I'm the Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge (https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/), where we do inter-disciplinary research on the key policy challenges of our times. I have had a number of public service roles, including membership of the Natural Capital Committee, the BBC Trust and the Competition Commission. Previously I ran a consultancy, was economics editor of The Independent, and started out my career working in the UK Treasury. Check out my blog, The Enlightened Economist (http://www.enlightenmenteconomics.com/blog), where I write about economics books and post reviews. My core interest is in technology and how it's changing the economy and society - I've been writing about this since 1997, when we all started noticing the Internet. At the moment I'm working on how to measure better the digitally-transformed economy (how should statisticians measure free digital goods like search and social media? how much is data worth?....), and how governments should update policy for the digital era. My work includes looking at competition in digital markets - I was a member of the Furman Review panel on this subject (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/unlocking-digital-competition-report-of-the-digital-competition-expert-panel). I'm also exploring what it is we mean by progress and how we might measure that instead of GDP.

Customer reviews

4.2 out of 5 stars
4.2 out of 5
319 global ratings

Top reviews from United Kingdom

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 6 August 2016
The author is clearheaded, clearly writing, and a pragmatist; She is also endowed with a healthy dose of wit rendering interesting a prima facie mundane subject.

A couple of things have to be clarified at the outset: GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which is a particular measure of economic activity that takes place in markets and has prices attached should not be confused with economic well being or social welfare though there is a certain degree of correlation between the two. Also it has to be appreciated that GDP is not a physical entity that has to be measured increasingly more accurately but an abstract human construct.

GDP can be measured in three equivalent ways: We can add up all the output in the economy, all the expenditure in the economy, or all incomes.

Using expenditure as a basis, GDP equals consumer spending plus investment spending plus government spending plus exports less imports (the trade surplus or deficit). But while GDP is conceptually easy, implementing it that is performing all relevant calculations and incorporating all amendments and refinements is fiendishly difficult. And if this were not enough, changes in the nature of the economy and new considerations such as environmental issues increase both the disparity between GDP and well being and welfare and necessitate evolution of the GDP statistic.

GDP was an adequate measure for manufacturing physical products and nation state - based economics of the post - Second World War era. Presently we have an economy dominated by services and intangibles, with much greater variety of products, and closely linked across national boundaries. It is not at all clear that GDP measures well the digital, globalized economy, with its proliferation of zero - price services and matching markets. It certainly does not address the increasingly unequal distribution of growth between different people or groups which we are experiencing since around the 1980s. Finally, GDP does not provide us with an insight on how sustain ably the economy is growing , an ever more important question in the wake of both the Great Financial Crisis and increasing concerns about environment and climate change. So while still using GDP to measure economic activity, it is becoming decreasingly useful as a proxy for either well being and social welfare or sustainability.

Also in the light of the above it is also clear that GDP itself has to evolve though we do not know how. We cannot also tell whether we shall use a single statistic for GDP or a dashboard of statistics to encompass a wider array of parameters to include not only economic growth but also well being, social welfare and sustainability.
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Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 2 July 2014
The aim of this book is to get across a bunch of messages about GDP

1. It was invented to help measure the ability of a state to wage war
2. As such, it's rather good at measuring physical production
3. It's as good as useless at measuring stuff that has no market price
4. It's rather terrible at measuring services
5. It tends to catch up slowly with positive developments that are difficult to quantify
6. It currently understates how well we're doing because we benefit from a number of novel consumer surpluses
7. It overstates the contribution of finance, which affords the authorities an excuse to favor financial institutions
8. Regardless, it's better than the alternatives if you had to sum up in one figure if we're doing better or worse than before

In terms of making these points, the book is a triumph. But it's not "engaging and witty" as it says on the cover.

And it is not in the least technical. The most complicated equation in here is the good, old AD=C+I+G+(x-m). I was kind of hoping to find out about annualizing quarterly GDP or the effect of a surprise in April inputs versus a surprise in June inputs on Q2 numbers. Or a worked example of how to build it for one quarter. Or a comparison of its composition through history. Dunno, something about how agriculture is no longer as important as it once was. Or a comparison between G7 countries and developing countries. You won't find any of that here. The only technical discussion (without the math) is about converting Chinese GDP into western-equivalent GDP via PPP and its alternatives.

It's really for the layman, basically, except I'm not 100% sure that it's simple enough for the layman.

That said, it kept me good company in the tube and it opens the discussion with an anecdote from my country, so I'll award it 4 stars.
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Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 14 August 2014
An exceptional book, packed full of insight and condensed into a quick read, but capable of being mind for more detail if you wish.

The wonders of social media mean that during my reading of this book when i had a question the author was kind enough to respond to my tweets, so for that interaction alone this was going to get 5 stars.

But even if i had been roundly ignored it would still be worth the purchase.

I have always been interested in just what GDP is, a phrase you hear banned about all the time, and the clarity this book gives as to what it actually means and more importantly how other government policies are manipulated to manipulate it is fascinating.

In particular was the revelation about stay at home parents v putting kids to a sitter.

A parent staying at home does not grow the GDP figure but a Sitter does, even though the same job is being done.

the History of how GDP was just about what you produced, but how it got wrapped up in Government services and War production is also brilliantly informative.

Other highlights are:

"as so often in life the roots of failure lay in the nature of success"

"GDP has never measured service-sector activity well, and services have been growing constantly as a proportion of what we spend our money on. Equally GDP has never captured the most striking and important characteristic of modern capitalism, namely that it is an "innovation machine"

"you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity figures"

"humans excel at wasting time, experimenting,playing,creating and exploring. None of these fare well under the scrutiny of productivity. That is why science and art are so hard to fund. But they are also the foundation of long term growth"

Buy this book, it will open up the vox pops of journolists and politician to you...it will also increase GDP .....I think?
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Top reviews from other countries

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Roberto
3.0 out of 5 stars Pretencious
Reviewed in Brazil on 3 October 2019
Superficial
Angel L. Romero
5.0 out of 5 stars Para entender de verdad qué es el PIB
Reviewed in Spain on 24 July 2020
Excelente análisis técnico, crítico y en profundidad de ese imprescindible concepto para entender la (macro)economía que es el PIB. Está obrita es un punto de partida muy recomendable para cualquier profundización posterior
Avni
5.0 out of 5 stars Very well written
Reviewed in India on 24 December 2018
This is is very well written, non-technical overview of GDP, warts and all. Should be made as a mandatory read for all those who seek to comment on Economics.
Stewart Paulson
5.0 out of 5 stars Gross Domestic Product-how relevant is it and will it be in the great paradigm shift
Reviewed in the United States on 15 June 2014
The GDP ( Gross Domestic Product) index is a widely used by governments in economic policy decisions and loan and wealth transfer decisions to financially depressed or developing countries; and is common jargon in economic discussions and debates world wide. It is a term often used in media domestically and internationally, yet few know of its actual meaning and historical origins; its distinction from GNP; its limitations, strengths and weaknesses; and its potential for misuse and abuse in international financial negotiations. Dr. Diane Coyle presents a superb, clearly written short book "GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History" which is highly readable by layman and professional alike. Dr. Coyle explains the relevance of GDP figures in a changing world economy. Dr. Coyle discusses the attempts by others to built a more inclusive, accurate and direct index measure of the a societies happiness, health and welfare . Dr. Coyle describes attempts by economists to find replacements, improvements and additions for the GDP index; even dashboards of social and economic indicators to be used as a package in policy decisions. Dr. Coyle discusses the successes, failures and limitations of these indices. She discusses future needs for more meaningful indices given the recent paradigm shifts in world economies; the environment, financial crises, global trade, growing service sector, free services provided through digital developments, like the internet, and other high technology developments. The book discusses issues related to growing social complexity and their affects on standardization of GDP calculations for use in country comparisons. For example the varying stages of development in countries and inequality of wealth domestically and internationally and motivations for accepting international standards for calculation procedures. Dr. Coyle discusses issues related to estimates of domestic services vs business services and margins of banks and other financial institutions being included or not included in the GDP figure. One of the most enlightening comments in this book relates to her discussion of the potential overestimated financial industry contribution in the US to the GDP due to its calculation procedure, that has encouraged economic advisors and policy makers to recommend and design policies that are favourable to the financial sector like deregulation. Which leaves the questioning open, as to whether governments need to pay more attention to other sectors of the US economy in their economic and social policy formation. Dr. Coyle summarizes in recognizing the contribution of the GDP index ,but also causes one to reflect on the question as to whether more sophisticated and all inclusive indices need to be developed for more effectiveness and efficiency in social/economic policy decisions . I highly recommend this book as a quick, short and efficient, well presented coverage of a critical economic index. Dr. Coyle demonstrates in her book "GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History" how critically important it is to understand the meaning of GDP, as it has and will result in decisions affecting us all.
james ainslie
5.0 out of 5 stars Beware of the RENT SEEKERS
Reviewed in Canada on 16 May 2014
The information is encyclopaedic and confirms that using GDP as a guide to economic progress is wrong. The key to future prosperity can only be found by noting how much of economic activity is fuelled by debt and the use of this debt if incurred by government. Greece had a huge jump in GDP for several years after joining the EU , but the money obtained by easier access to credit through moral hazard was used to buy votes from the rent seekers.
The most important parameter of economic progress and wealth creation is the unemployment rate - especially long term unemployment . In America this figure is reaching historic highs which suggests that the government is on the wrong course.
The book should be compulsory reading for all politicians.
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