Future Wars: The World's Most Dangerous Flashpoints Hardcover – 1 Jan 1993
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From the Back Cover
The time is the near future... The Intifada, the Palestinian revolt, intensifies throughout the West Bank and Gaza. Egypt breaks diplomatic relations with Israel. The combined air forces of Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan and Egypt invade the skies over Israel. The sixth Arab-Israeli war has begun... South Korean student protesters, marching to the demilitarized zone separating their country from North Korea, are fired on by South Korean security forces, resulting in nearly 1,000 casualties and worldwide cries of protest. Wildly escalating tensions culminate in air and artillery strikes by North Korea against the South that launch, in turn, the second Korean War... The revolutionary Sandinista Front regains power in Nicaragua in a bloodless coup. With a renewed offensive by FMLN guerrillas in neighboring El Salvador, the Sandinistas establish a supporting land supply link to the rebels by mounting an offensive into Honduras. Once again, Central America is engulfed in war... Russia's controversial prime minister is assassinated as he addresses a special session of parliament. A resurgent KGB takes power and declares martial law. Mutinies erupt in army and air force units across the country ushering in the second Russian Revolution... Today we witness a harsh paradox: after the long-hoped-for end of the Cold War, concern for world security has, if anything, dramatically increased. Now, in Future Wars, Col. Trevor N. Dupuy one of America's foremost military analysts, examines ten world hotspots where war might break out in the next five years. With the assistance of a unique analytical tool developed by the author, a computerized combat simulation used in several defense ministries around theworld, Future Wars examines the following possible global flashpoints, the third Gulf War, the fourth India-Pakistan War, the Sandinista War, the war for Transylvania, the Libya-Egypt War, the second Korean War, the second war for Africa, the sixth Arab-Israeli War, the Russian Civil War and the Sino-Russian border war. Written with the authority of a top-ranked military analyst and the you-are-there immediacy of the best techno-thriller fiction, Future Wars gives a brief history of the region for each of these wars and describes its probable course - including a review of each side's military potential, a vividly detailed scenario of a typical engagement, and a prediction of what the outcome most likely would be. An educated speculation about what could happen and how, Future Wars may well prove to be one of the most important books for the uncertain and perilous years that lie ahead.
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There are more obvious possibilities such as a sixth Arab-Israeli war, or a fourth India-Pakistan war. Then there are less obvious, but nevertheless quite plausible possibilities such as a Sandinista-Central America conflict, or a Libya-Egypt war, or a battle for control of Transylvania. None happened for real, but the thoroughness of research in "Future Wars" makes for fascinating reading. Especially well done are the preliminary excerpts in each conflict dealing with actual regional history leading up to the outbreak, and with brief rationales as causes for the "trigger to be pulled."
An endorsement by British General Sir John Hackett should be a huge testimonial for the experienced military history reader and analyst. Were it possible to be a reader of "Future Wars" in the year 1992, the book would certainly make one lose sleep!
Dupuys worst scenario if the 6th arab-israeli war. Why? Normally Dupuy has been at the forefront of those that say history is important to analyze the future. But he is using bad history(odd for someone who wrote a book on the arb-israeli conflict) in his look at the 6th arab israeli war. First: he forecasts a staggering intifada that would help slow down the IDF in its lightning blitzkrieg to take out the combined arab armies. Dupuy for all is knowledge doesnt seem to realize that in 1967 when Israel took over the west bank the palistinains had a chance to fight alongside the jordanian protectors but they did little to know damage and had no effect on the war in the west bank. So how could they be any more successful now? Your telling me a bunch of rock throwing youth and a few guys with old AKs are going to stop the Israeli army, not this is just not the case. The palistinians wouldnt dent anything and the Israelis wouldnt be forced to 'massacre' them to get through.
A flawed book.
Dupuy warns that the Intifada could block off Israeli roads and slow the IDF even if they killed 'hundreds of civilians'; which probably understates what the IDF would do.
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