Like Bjorn Lomborg's other writings about climate change, 'False Alarm' is a book that misleads the reader about the potential consequences of climate change and the costs of tackling greenhouse gas emissions. Lomborg accepts the undeniable evidence that climate change is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities, such as the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation, he presents a distorted view of current knowledge by using distorted, out-of-date and cherry-picked research findings. But he is in complete denial of the scale of the risks posed by climate change impacts.
The result is a book that is more propaganda than a factual examination of the issue. It is at odds with researchers and scientific organisations around the world, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United States National Academy of Sciences, who have concluded that climate change poses an extremely serious threat to people around the world, which will continue to grow unless there is much stronger action to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The arguments presented by Lomborg are often confused and contradictory. He claims that adapting to the impacts of climate change is easier and more cost-effective than cutting emissions, but admits that the economic damage from weather events around the world is increasing rapidly. He advocates more research on finding a magical new source of energy that does not emit greenhouse gases and is cheaper than fossil fuels, but dismisses wind and solar energy which is already producing power more cheaply than coal in many parts of the world, including the United States.
Are the heart of the book is a reliance on an out-of-date model of the economic impacts of climate change which does not reflect the latest scientific research. Lomborg also exaggerates the costs of renewables and other ways of reducing emissions, bizarrely doubling all the estimates he finds in the literature. The end result is that Lomborg suggests that there is an "optimal" level of global warming that is 3.75 Celsius degrees above pre-industrial temperature. This is a laughable conclusion. The last time global temperature was more than 2 Celsius degrees above pre-industrial temperature was about 3 million years ago during the Pliocene Epoch, when the polar ice caps were much smaller than today and global sea levels were 10-20 metres higher. Modern humans first appeared on earth less than 250,000 years ago so have no evolutionary experience of the climate that Lomborg suggests is optimal!
The book may seem superficially plausible because of the citation of academic references. But when you check the papers to which Lomborg refers, you often find that they do not state what he claims. When I contacted some of the researchers about Lomborg's characterisation of their work, they said that their findings had been misrepresented.
Overall, this book will appeal to those who, like Lomborg, arrogantly believe that they know better than the experts and think that the risks of climate change have been exaggerated. But the informed reader will be able to spot that this book is an exercise in motivated reasoning and is not a serious or credible examination of the issue.
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False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet Hardcover – Illustrated, 13 Aug. 2020
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ISBN-101541647467
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ISBN-13978-1541647466
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EditionIllustrated
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PublisherBasic Books
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Publication date13 Aug. 2020
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LanguageEnglish
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Dimensions15.88 x 2.54 x 24.13 cm
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Print length320 pages
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Review
"False Alarm is a comprehensive analysis of the issues in climate change that represents a reasoned balance between the shrill voices demanding immediate change (without being aware of the practical issues involved) and those who see no problems at all with our current environmental situation."--New York Journal of Books
"A detailed...human-centric, optimistic tome from an honest environmentalist."--Capitalism Magazine
"In between the cries of imminent apocalypse and outright denial that seems to be the daily fare of the mainstream and alternative news outlets on the issue of global warming, Bjorn Lomborg sounds a rare note of sanity and moderation in his new book, False Alarm. Lomborg's achievement is in providing a much-needed broader context to the climate debate, based on years of researching and writing on the topic....One hopes that this book will bring to the attention of the general public, specialists and policy-makers, not just the scale of the problem of climate change, but the most positive steps that can be taken by governments to address it."
--International Journal of World Peace
"It's precisely because the problem is so serious that [Lomborg] argues it is necessary to approach it cool-headedly....The alternative? In Lomborg's view it is letting ourselves be panicked into the most expensive course--trying to fix the climate without having the necessary technology on hand. Lomborg argues powerfully that this is a fool's errand....A corrective to many of the green assumptions that dominate the media."
--Financial Times
"Lomborg is persuasive on the vulnerability of Africa and need for greater emphasis on building climate resilience."--The Irish Times
"Lomborg's work is impossible for alarmists to ignore."--Heartland Institute
False Alarm is a timely and important book. Based on the latest scientific evidence and rigorous economic analysis, it provides a welcome antidote to widespread, irrational panic about a coming climate apocalypse. Instead, it provides a set of smart, rational policies for addressing global warming -- while not losing sight of the myriad other problems that beset our planet, including poverty and inequality. This book is essential reading for anyone who cares about our shared human future.--Justin Yifu Lin, former chief economist, the World Bank
"An excellent summary of the madness, hypocrisy, and cynicism of the climate-alarm establishment.... Lomborg has done an excellent job pointing out that climate fears are indeed a 'false alarm, ' misdirecting time and resources away from real, and soluble, problems."--New Criterion
[Lomborg] follows his previous critiques of climate change policy...with a hard-hitting analysis of failing strategies for addressing what he acknowledges is 'a real problem.'...A serious, debatable assessment of a controversial global issue.--Kirkus
An important book. Mr. Lomborg is a long-standing environmentalist regarded as a heretic by hardliners in the movement because he is an optimist who says that humanity is not doomed.--Iain Martin, The Times (UK)
Bjorn Lomborg is that rare thing: a clear-sighted realist about climate change. In False Alarm, he argues that it would be foolish to do nothing to prepare for a warmer planet, but it would be more foolish to pretend that we are doing things that will significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions when we are not. At the same time, getting serious about cutting CO2 emissions will have a cost. As Lomborg says, vastly more people die as a consequence of poverty and disease each year than die as a consequence of global warming. As in the past, we humans are capable of adapting to climate change in ways that can significantly mitigate its adverse effects, without choking off economic growth. To learn how, you must read False Alarm.--Niall Ferguson, the Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Bjorn Lomborg's new book offers a data-driven, human-centered antidote to the oft-apocalyptic discussion characterizing the effect of human activity on the global climate. Careful, compelling, and above all sensible and pragmatic.--Jordan Peterson, author of 12 Rules for Life
Lomborg brands climate change warnings as alarmist, and argues that a massive reduction in fossil fuels would exacerbate global poverty, in this detailed account.... Lomborg is careful to back his cost-benefit analyses of climate policies with surveys and statistics.--Publishers Weekly
Lomborg does not lack solutions. In False Alarm, he advocates a range of cost-benefit tested policies to address both climate change and global poverty.... Lomborg does a service in calling out the environmental alarmism and hysteria that obscure environmental debates rather than illuminate them.--National Review
Lomborg's most basic premise remains that there are better ways to alleviate human misery than spending taxpayer subsidies than on panic-driven, political non-solutions to a changing climate. Few would argue with that goal.--American Thinker
Meticulously researched, and well worth a read.--Forbes
The best way to deal with global warming is to increase global prosperity.... The choice we face, Lomborg writes, is between a human future driven by fear and one driven by ingenuity. On that, he is exactly right.--The Bulwark
This is a fantastic book. In it, Bjorn Lomborg examines through the lens of statistics the apocalyptic projections of the future of climate change. He points out, rightly, that the doomsday scenarios are misguided and that policy decisions driven by panic have real costs, particularly for the poor. False Alarm is a must-read.--Bibek Debroy, Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India
This is a very important and superbly argued book. Those who have been persuaded that climate change is not happening, and those who think catastrophe is imminent should both read it and know they can rely on Lomborg's meticulous analysis to put them right. The rest of us can be alarmed by his relentless revelation that the world is spending a fortune on making the plight of the poor and the state of the environment worse with foolish and expensive policies.--Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works
"A detailed...human-centric, optimistic tome from an honest environmentalist."--Capitalism Magazine
"In between the cries of imminent apocalypse and outright denial that seems to be the daily fare of the mainstream and alternative news outlets on the issue of global warming, Bjorn Lomborg sounds a rare note of sanity and moderation in his new book, False Alarm. Lomborg's achievement is in providing a much-needed broader context to the climate debate, based on years of researching and writing on the topic....One hopes that this book will bring to the attention of the general public, specialists and policy-makers, not just the scale of the problem of climate change, but the most positive steps that can be taken by governments to address it."
--International Journal of World Peace
"It's precisely because the problem is so serious that [Lomborg] argues it is necessary to approach it cool-headedly....The alternative? In Lomborg's view it is letting ourselves be panicked into the most expensive course--trying to fix the climate without having the necessary technology on hand. Lomborg argues powerfully that this is a fool's errand....A corrective to many of the green assumptions that dominate the media."
--Financial Times
"Lomborg is persuasive on the vulnerability of Africa and need for greater emphasis on building climate resilience."--The Irish Times
"Lomborg's work is impossible for alarmists to ignore."--Heartland Institute
False Alarm is a timely and important book. Based on the latest scientific evidence and rigorous economic analysis, it provides a welcome antidote to widespread, irrational panic about a coming climate apocalypse. Instead, it provides a set of smart, rational policies for addressing global warming -- while not losing sight of the myriad other problems that beset our planet, including poverty and inequality. This book is essential reading for anyone who cares about our shared human future.--Justin Yifu Lin, former chief economist, the World Bank
"An excellent summary of the madness, hypocrisy, and cynicism of the climate-alarm establishment.... Lomborg has done an excellent job pointing out that climate fears are indeed a 'false alarm, ' misdirecting time and resources away from real, and soluble, problems."--New Criterion
[Lomborg] follows his previous critiques of climate change policy...with a hard-hitting analysis of failing strategies for addressing what he acknowledges is 'a real problem.'...A serious, debatable assessment of a controversial global issue.--Kirkus
An important book. Mr. Lomborg is a long-standing environmentalist regarded as a heretic by hardliners in the movement because he is an optimist who says that humanity is not doomed.--Iain Martin, The Times (UK)
Bjorn Lomborg is that rare thing: a clear-sighted realist about climate change. In False Alarm, he argues that it would be foolish to do nothing to prepare for a warmer planet, but it would be more foolish to pretend that we are doing things that will significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions when we are not. At the same time, getting serious about cutting CO2 emissions will have a cost. As Lomborg says, vastly more people die as a consequence of poverty and disease each year than die as a consequence of global warming. As in the past, we humans are capable of adapting to climate change in ways that can significantly mitigate its adverse effects, without choking off economic growth. To learn how, you must read False Alarm.--Niall Ferguson, the Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Bjorn Lomborg's new book offers a data-driven, human-centered antidote to the oft-apocalyptic discussion characterizing the effect of human activity on the global climate. Careful, compelling, and above all sensible and pragmatic.--Jordan Peterson, author of 12 Rules for Life
Lomborg brands climate change warnings as alarmist, and argues that a massive reduction in fossil fuels would exacerbate global poverty, in this detailed account.... Lomborg is careful to back his cost-benefit analyses of climate policies with surveys and statistics.--Publishers Weekly
Lomborg does not lack solutions. In False Alarm, he advocates a range of cost-benefit tested policies to address both climate change and global poverty.... Lomborg does a service in calling out the environmental alarmism and hysteria that obscure environmental debates rather than illuminate them.--National Review
Lomborg's most basic premise remains that there are better ways to alleviate human misery than spending taxpayer subsidies than on panic-driven, political non-solutions to a changing climate. Few would argue with that goal.--American Thinker
Meticulously researched, and well worth a read.--Forbes
The best way to deal with global warming is to increase global prosperity.... The choice we face, Lomborg writes, is between a human future driven by fear and one driven by ingenuity. On that, he is exactly right.--The Bulwark
This is a fantastic book. In it, Bjorn Lomborg examines through the lens of statistics the apocalyptic projections of the future of climate change. He points out, rightly, that the doomsday scenarios are misguided and that policy decisions driven by panic have real costs, particularly for the poor. False Alarm is a must-read.--Bibek Debroy, Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India
This is a very important and superbly argued book. Those who have been persuaded that climate change is not happening, and those who think catastrophe is imminent should both read it and know they can rely on Lomborg's meticulous analysis to put them right. The rest of us can be alarmed by his relentless revelation that the world is spending a fortune on making the plight of the poor and the state of the environment worse with foolish and expensive policies.--Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works
Book Description
The New York Times-bestselling "skeptical environmentalist" argues that panic over climate change is causing more harm than good
About the Author
Bjorn Lomborg is the best-selling author of The Skeptical Environmentalist and Cool It. He is a visiting professor at Copenhagen Business School and at the Hoover Institution at Stanford. His work appears regularly in New York Times, Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the Atlantic, and Forbes. His monthly column appears in around 40 papers in 19 languages, with more than 30 million readers. In 2011 and 2012, Lomborg was named Top 100 Global Thinker by Foreign Policy. In 2008 he was named "one of the 50 people who could save the planet" by the Guardian. He lives in Prague.
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Product details
- Publisher : Basic Books; Illustrated edition (13 Aug. 2020)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 320 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1541647467
- ISBN-13 : 978-1541647466
- Dimensions : 15.88 x 2.54 x 24.13 cm
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Best Sellers Rank:
24,064 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- 9 in Conservatism
- 43 in Global Warming & Ecology
- 58 in Ecological Pollution
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“Life in the future will be very recognizable but… ” – as no newspaper headline ever said
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 14 July 2020Verified Purchase
I was surprised to realise that it’s over 12 years since Bjorn Lomborg published “Cool it!”, his last specifically on Climate Change, and almost twenty since “The Skeptical Environmentalist” brought him fame, or notoriety, depending on your viewpoint. Much of his work through his Copenhagen Consensus think-tank focuses on how to spend money most effectively to relieve poverty and other hardships around the world, and he is well known for his scepticism as to the cost-ineffectiveness of global policies on climate change.
The basic premises of False Alarm, therefore, did not come as a surprise to me. He advocates a four-pronged strategy to deal with climate change: a small but steadily increasing carbon tax, ideally one that is coordinated internationally, research into new carbon-free technologies (but little spending on deploying today’s immature ones), adaptation and, finally, research into geoengineering as an insurance policy (but not for deployment other than in extremis). Lastly, he reminds us that climate change is not the only challenge, and, indeed, for most people around the world even in the West, but especially in the developing world, it is far down their list of priorities. Prosperity, he says, is the overlooked climate policy – more prosperous people and peoples are better placed to deal with the effects of climate change as they are to overcome other problems.
Lomborg starts by asking why we get our reaction to climate change so wrong, and specifically how we became fixated on becoming “carbon neutral” by 2030 so as to limit global average temperature rise to 2.7F at the end of the century. (Minor gripe: he uses Fahrenheit in deference to the US market, only occasionally giving the Celsius equivalent; I would have preferred it the other way around, and giving both measures each time would surely have caused little additional work or disruption to the reading flow.) The answer: ask scientists a silly question - Lomborg says an impossible one - and you get a silly/impossible answer. He implicates mainstream media in particular – good news sells no stories, and headlines like “Climate Change Could End Human Civilization by 2050” as published in the New York Times sells more newspapers than “Life in the future will be very recognizable but could be somewhat more challenging in certain respects.”
Second only to the MSM Lomborg implicates university researchers and politicians as contributing to the hype for their own benefits – he does not suggest a conspiracy, rather a self-reinforcing group-think. He points out that environmental catastrophism goes back to the 1960s, and has already had a long history of promoting expensive, unnecessary and in some cases downright barbaric solutions to avert perceived Armageddons. Paul Erlich – in response to whom Lomborg supposedly wrote Skeptical Environmentalist – comes in for particular stick.
In the second section Lomborg concentrates on debunking suggestions that hurricanes, droughts or forest fires are actually worse natural phenomena than before (or linked to climate change), it’s just that we humans have placed more of our assets into harm’s way without taking appropriate precautions. He uses the reports of the International Panel on Climate Change and other government-funded reports to demonstrate just how relatively mild their predictions are compared to the hysterical reaction they are engineered to produce, and refers to the work of Nobel-Laureate economist William D. Nordhaus who has worked out the economic effect of the predicted temperature rises in terms of GDP – and concludes that the effects are all entirely manageable.
Lomborg details why almost nothing we have done so far has been effective In the third section and demonstrates the shocking expense of the subsidies that the EU, and Germany in particular, has paid (from taxpayers’ money!) to deploy renewable technologies (while attempting to phase out the one non-carbon technology that does work at scale, nuclear fission). But, he says, it’s the very attempt to work to arbitrary targets to reduce CO2 that is at fault – even if the Paris Agreement delivered as planned (and he explains why it won’t) the rise in temperature by 2100 would be reduced by an imperceptible amount. In the hard-hitting tenth chapter “How climate policy hurts the poor” he focuses on one of the key arguments of the book – which dovetails with his work in the Copenhagen Consensus – that inept climate policies actually cause deaths amongst the world’s poorest. The fashion for biofuels in the early 2000’s, for example, pushed food prices up by 75%, with predictable effects of poverty – and starvation – levels. He decries climate-based aid programmes which offer renewable (e.g. solar-based) off-grid electrification that entirely fail to meet the expectations of local people. Although written before the current campaign, it is interesting to view the intended effect of western climate campaigners on ordinary people in the rest of the world through the prism of “Black Lives Matter”; which Lomborg does not refer to that movement, he does suggest that the climate campaigners are “enacting a kind of imperialism”.
This is an excellent book. Apart from my minor quibble about F rather than C, my only concern is that he doesn’t take the time to explain why a temperature rise of 5C or 8.7F or whatever is only going to cause a small reduction on GDP and is entirely manageable. Our own dear George Monbiot and The Guardian (both quoted, not necessarily positively) are convinced and have played their part in convincing so many that this does in fact mean the end of the world, and Lomborg might usefully have spent more time providing evidence that such a rise in temperature would indeed something that we could, if necessary, adapt to. Highly recommended.
I read this in the Kindle edition, which is/was published before the hardback. The illustrations, always a weakness of ebooks and kindles in particular, aren’t bad, although it was good to be able to look at them on my PC (via the PC Kindle app) to see the detail. I also downloaded the synced audible audiobook - Jim Seybert does a credible job or narrating.
The basic premises of False Alarm, therefore, did not come as a surprise to me. He advocates a four-pronged strategy to deal with climate change: a small but steadily increasing carbon tax, ideally one that is coordinated internationally, research into new carbon-free technologies (but little spending on deploying today’s immature ones), adaptation and, finally, research into geoengineering as an insurance policy (but not for deployment other than in extremis). Lastly, he reminds us that climate change is not the only challenge, and, indeed, for most people around the world even in the West, but especially in the developing world, it is far down their list of priorities. Prosperity, he says, is the overlooked climate policy – more prosperous people and peoples are better placed to deal with the effects of climate change as they are to overcome other problems.
Lomborg starts by asking why we get our reaction to climate change so wrong, and specifically how we became fixated on becoming “carbon neutral” by 2030 so as to limit global average temperature rise to 2.7F at the end of the century. (Minor gripe: he uses Fahrenheit in deference to the US market, only occasionally giving the Celsius equivalent; I would have preferred it the other way around, and giving both measures each time would surely have caused little additional work or disruption to the reading flow.) The answer: ask scientists a silly question - Lomborg says an impossible one - and you get a silly/impossible answer. He implicates mainstream media in particular – good news sells no stories, and headlines like “Climate Change Could End Human Civilization by 2050” as published in the New York Times sells more newspapers than “Life in the future will be very recognizable but could be somewhat more challenging in certain respects.”
Second only to the MSM Lomborg implicates university researchers and politicians as contributing to the hype for their own benefits – he does not suggest a conspiracy, rather a self-reinforcing group-think. He points out that environmental catastrophism goes back to the 1960s, and has already had a long history of promoting expensive, unnecessary and in some cases downright barbaric solutions to avert perceived Armageddons. Paul Erlich – in response to whom Lomborg supposedly wrote Skeptical Environmentalist – comes in for particular stick.
In the second section Lomborg concentrates on debunking suggestions that hurricanes, droughts or forest fires are actually worse natural phenomena than before (or linked to climate change), it’s just that we humans have placed more of our assets into harm’s way without taking appropriate precautions. He uses the reports of the International Panel on Climate Change and other government-funded reports to demonstrate just how relatively mild their predictions are compared to the hysterical reaction they are engineered to produce, and refers to the work of Nobel-Laureate economist William D. Nordhaus who has worked out the economic effect of the predicted temperature rises in terms of GDP – and concludes that the effects are all entirely manageable.
Lomborg details why almost nothing we have done so far has been effective In the third section and demonstrates the shocking expense of the subsidies that the EU, and Germany in particular, has paid (from taxpayers’ money!) to deploy renewable technologies (while attempting to phase out the one non-carbon technology that does work at scale, nuclear fission). But, he says, it’s the very attempt to work to arbitrary targets to reduce CO2 that is at fault – even if the Paris Agreement delivered as planned (and he explains why it won’t) the rise in temperature by 2100 would be reduced by an imperceptible amount. In the hard-hitting tenth chapter “How climate policy hurts the poor” he focuses on one of the key arguments of the book – which dovetails with his work in the Copenhagen Consensus – that inept climate policies actually cause deaths amongst the world’s poorest. The fashion for biofuels in the early 2000’s, for example, pushed food prices up by 75%, with predictable effects of poverty – and starvation – levels. He decries climate-based aid programmes which offer renewable (e.g. solar-based) off-grid electrification that entirely fail to meet the expectations of local people. Although written before the current campaign, it is interesting to view the intended effect of western climate campaigners on ordinary people in the rest of the world through the prism of “Black Lives Matter”; which Lomborg does not refer to that movement, he does suggest that the climate campaigners are “enacting a kind of imperialism”.
This is an excellent book. Apart from my minor quibble about F rather than C, my only concern is that he doesn’t take the time to explain why a temperature rise of 5C or 8.7F or whatever is only going to cause a small reduction on GDP and is entirely manageable. Our own dear George Monbiot and The Guardian (both quoted, not necessarily positively) are convinced and have played their part in convincing so many that this does in fact mean the end of the world, and Lomborg might usefully have spent more time providing evidence that such a rise in temperature would indeed something that we could, if necessary, adapt to. Highly recommended.
I read this in the Kindle edition, which is/was published before the hardback. The illustrations, always a weakness of ebooks and kindles in particular, aren’t bad, although it was good to be able to look at them on my PC (via the PC Kindle app) to see the detail. I also downloaded the synced audible audiobook - Jim Seybert does a credible job or narrating.
64 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 4 September 2020
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This is a wonderful and clear explanation about the climate of our planet. It is also a corrective about the 'do gooders' who are filling our children with terror about their future. It is a rebuke for ill educated autistic school girls who believe fervently that we will all be dead in ten years time. This book gives the reader the chance to learn about the issues before leaping out to glue yourself to the railings. Salutary and brilliant.
27 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 15 August 2020
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Excellent reality check to quieten the shouty eco warriors who want to spend all the family silver on useless projects.
26 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 6 October 2020
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Well presented, with solutions offered not just the same old rubbish “fossil fuel bad, solar/wind good”, the inclusion of cost/benefit analysis helps show just what the costs are and how stupidly we have been to blindly follow the Climate Activist agenda and waste money, not that the private sector is complaining. The section on raising up the poor nations out of poverty is especially illuminating, showing that given the tools and training, they do not need to rely on charity but can stand on their own and prosper, that will not please the Charity Aid Industrial Aid complex who rely on these people for their well paid jobs.
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Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 29 July 2020
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The headline sums up in a sentence, the overarching view of some that they have the right, in the Quixotic fight against nature to determine societal outcome when the campaigners will be long gone and will not have to answer for the mess they have made on the road to hell paved with good intentions.
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