"You know the HPC is here when:
1. Real house prices are falling with Nationwide's seasonally-adjusted MoM HPI at 0.1% (annualised = 1.2%, compared with CPI 2.4%, wage inflation 3.3%, RPI 4.4%)
2. Interest rates are on their way up (inflation is above target, input prices are rising like crazy, and as soon as IRs go on hold the pound will tank driving inflation higher)
3. Mortgage lending is tightening (and credit spreads are widening as takeover deals and bond issues collapse on all sides)
4. The media is negative day after day (after day)"