1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
Excellent Book that explains contingent probabilities,
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This review is from: Thinking Statistically (Kindle Edition)
Excellent ,if very short book. If you understand the medical problem that you have a test for an illness that's 99% accurate but the illness occurs only in 1 person in 10,000, then the probability that you have the illness if you've just been tested positive is "only" about 9% rather than what seems intuitively correct, namely 99% then you won't learn anything from this book. If not then it's worth a read.
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Initial post: 22 Mar 2013 10:37:09 GMT
If the illness occurs in only 1 in 10,000 then the probability you have the illness having tested positive is only about 1%. If it's 1 in 1000 then about 9% is correct.
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