Customer Reviews

The Future of Pharma

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Brian Smith is very well-placed to analyse the problems of the pharma industry and predict its future. He started his career in pharmaceutical drug development, then moved into pharma and medical technology marketing and is now a well-respected business school academic with a particular focus on the industries where he cut his teeth.

His background is important because it comes through every page of this highly readable, thought-provoking work. The book is based on interviews with many leading figures in the pharma industry and others in a position to really understand it and the challenges it faces. However, though his approach is rigorously academic this is no dry academic tone.
He has a light, readable style and an attractive turn of phrase. He also have a very lively mind which, as he reminds us, is like a parachute...it works best when it's open, though you may reach your destination quicker if you keep it closed.

What does that mind suggest is the future of pharma? He outlines the challenges neatly as seven social shifts, ranging from a shifting concept of value to a focus on preventative healthcare. He introduces five technological changes which are transforming the industry whether it likes it or not. Summing up the dilemma of the way R&D spend is increasing for lower returns in new drugs, he quotes one expert who puts his finger on the problem succinctly: An industry that `has been marvellous at building larger haystacks and very poor at developing needle-finding skills', which is about the best summary of the problem I have ever heard.

His analysis of how the `emerging markets' are being wrongly lumped together, and how the business models that built blockbusters such as Lipitor and Plavix won't work in the new world is crystal clear and like all the book, well supported by his own synthesis of the arguments put forward by the experts he interviewed. It is, however, the section where he dissects the future pharma markets into a number of thin slices, ranging from what he calls `Lazarus and Narcissus' and the `Wealthy Well' to `Pressured State' and `Cost Containment' that he really produces food for future thought.

An excellent enjoyable read.

This unique book comes highly recommended to anyone with an interest in the future of the pharmaceutical industry. Irrespective of whether or not you are in agreement with the specifics of the predictions offered, it can't fail to engage your mind and encourage you to reconsider the industry and its future.

There is little doubt that the pharmaceutical industry has made a positive impact on the lives of countless people over the last century through the provision of therapeutics and vaccines, and more generally as an economic force for good. Can it continue to make such contributions; and if so, how? For many of us who work in the industry, it is difficult to observe the industry from a perspective other than that presented from the particular company within which we work, so providing answers to those simple questions is not as straight forward as one might hope.

Brian Smith takes a step back, gathers data from a credible panel of industry leaders and, applying the principles of evolutionary theory, delivers a convincing vision of the future of the industry. By explaining the environment past and present, how it has changed and how it continues to change, he predicts how the industry will continue to evolve concluding that although the industry will indeed survive, and in many cases flourish, it won't be in a form recognisable to those familiar with the industry of recent years. It is also clear that companies that fail to adapt appropriately will not survive.

Referencing a host of source material and subtly quoting Darwin, Dawkins and Dennett in an easily readable style, Prof Smith insightfully predicts the speciation of the industry into a spectrum of business models including Monster Imitators, Genii and Health Concierges. To learn more, I can only recommend that you read the book: Your time will be well invested.

Excellent study; well researched and the authors thinking is first rate, captured in an elegant but thought provoking text. I have thoroughly enjoyed the concepts and analysis (I don't necessarily agree with some of the conclusions) but it is a must read text. I look forward to next edition.

With this book Brian Smith demonstrates the audacity to predict the future of the pharmaceutical industry. He first provides an historical overview of the path that has lead the pharmaceutical industry to evolve from the classic apothecary form, to what it is today. Now, the industry is faced with many challenges, such as increasing health care costs while resources devoted to health care decrease. Many factors are described that herald the end of the traditional pharma business model. And why blockbuster thinking is no longer effective in today's environment.

He then identifies several new business models, adapted to the new environment, and demonstrates the innovative thinking needed to create them. Also, the author submits many quotes from leaders of pharmaceutical companies who are currently responsible for innovation to survive the massive changes presented in the healthcare environment today. Not afraid of Darwinian thought, the underlying thinking seems strongly influenced of the premise that those who can adapt to new conditions shall survive.

In essence, the book takes a scholarly approach on how the future of the pharmaceutical industry may be architected. It takes many factors, including social, environmental, and technical factors from our current environment into account, to arrive at its models for the realistic near future. Even more, the book gives tangible, ready-to-use strategies to adapt to the requirements for each individual business model.

The book may be valuable for those involved in pharmaceuticals, medicine, medical industry, as well as those in business, or others keen to link to or to understand the evolution eminent in pharmaceutical companies and overall, to adopt evolutionary adaptive tactics.

As somebody who spends a lot of time asking pharma industry executives about the future, I encounter confusion, conflict and clumsiness on a regular basis. Despite this being the most critical issue that faces an important industry (as Brian points out, arguably the most important industry) we are currently inundated by a vast array of opinion and one-sided experiences.

Until now. Brian combines his professional and academic skills to expert effect in order to predict a future that may not be certain but is likely to be more accurate than anything else published to date. Few can argue with evolutionary theory (although some do try...) and it provides a very sensible basis upon which to map out the forthcoming state of a sector based on biology.

I read this book in order to prepare my own organisation, eyeforpharma, for the future. To ensure we were placing our bets correctly and supporting people in the right places. It was invaluable.

I suggest that others in this industry do the same!

The Future of Pharma provides a big picture overview using evolutionary theory to explain where the Pharma industry has come from, where it is now and given its current challenges, where it is likely heading. Professor Brian Smith has gathered information from across the industry with interviews with senior managers from many of the industry's big players. Brian predicts a future where the industry diverges into various business models each possessing certain capabilities that will allow them to survive and prosper in future scenarios or wither and die.

Brian, with his easy to read style, explains why the blockbuster is dead and how the health and life sciences are already part of a interconnecting matrix. He helps us understand that it's not only about expensive option of treating disease but also about disease prevention for the `healthy well'. This goes some way to help explain how personalised medicine, companion diagnostics, personalised nutrition/nutraceuticals and vaccines all fit into a bigger health picture that includes therapy. Brian explains how cutting edge `Lazarus and Narcissus' treatments, affordable to the lucky few, may be a lucrative market chased by some companies while many of us will need to rely on those medicines delivered by the `pressured state' with products created by companies offering `cost containment' medicine that is decreed `good enough' by medicine evaluation bodies and insurers looking for value for money.

While everyone may not like/agree with Brian's ergotistic predictions of the future, he does provide possible scenarios that can provide insight for both long-term investors or those in the industry formulating long term strategy.

Given the subject matter and terminology, a background in both business and life science will make the book more digestible. Still, whether you're in the business or just interested in where the sector is heading, it provides a thoroughly enjoyable and stimulating read.

As someone working in the industry both in the UK and abroad for several years, you get to see a lot of changes, and you also get to live through predictions which never come to pass. The industry clearly faces huge and possibly unprecedented changes today, and although there is a lot in the industry press about what could happen in the market much of it is either obvious or just speculation. Professor Smith's book takes a different approach, using evolutionary theory not just as a metaphor but, as theory is supposed to be used, as a tool to explain the past and predict the future. He has gathered information from a wide range of sources, including leaders of many of the industry's big players, and synthesised it to predict what will happen and what those in the industry might do about it. It's a surprising picture in which the industry splits up into different species, each of which has to develop new traits or capabilities. Whilst some of the data will be familiar to pharma professionals, he weaves it together with evolutionary ideas and management concepts in an engaging way. I'd recommend this book for anyone who works in or around the pharma industry. It will change your perspective on what is happening now and give you another insight into how things will change.

The Future of Pharma is a great read, Brian Smith compiles a variety of sources to provide, a thorough yet, clear overview of the Pharmaceutical Industry and the massive challenges it faces.

The Future of Pharma has very good models to classify trends, shifts and patterns allowing for a structured and logical understanding of the issues approached.

Brian Smith's experience in the Pharmaceutical Industry and Academia ensures The Future of Pharma, is a clear, well thought-out, and interesting book.

I highly recommend this book to anyone who has an interest in the industry and, believe it to be essential to all those who work within the industry in a strategic position.

Having worked in the Pharma industry as a scientist for over 20 years I was curious to read the authors thoughts on the evolution of the industry, how it achieved the success it did, and what form the industry might take to survive in the future.
The author has obviously done a significant amount of research with major players in Pharma and places key quotes from these people in the text to exemplify his assumptions and arguments. The text itself I found easy to read and in some places quite conversational almost as if the reader were listening to the author giving a lecture on the subject. He uses quotes from unusual sources (eg: Voltaire, a Justice of the US supreme court, etc) which all add to the colour of the ideas presented.
Although personally I found the theory of the business models and some of the terminology difficult to understand on first reading it did not put me off reading further. This book has certainly helped me to understand the direction that the Pharma industry is taking at the moment and has given me some reassurance that it is progressing in a logical direction. The book ends with a plea to staff in Pharma to harness their abilities to successfully manage the industry in the future and the author hopes that "this book makes a small contribution to that challenge". I think the book certainly does that and I would recommended it to anyone working in Pharma at the moment.

The pharma industry is in the midst of a period of great turbulence and it is proving difficult for analysts to get a handle on the threats to the sector and perhaps even more of a challenge to recognize opportunities. In 'The Future of Pharma" Professor Smith shares his thoughts on both of these critical areas and then looks to the future and how the industry might evolve. The book delivers fresh thinking through clear writing. I would recommend this book to anyone working in the life sciences or with a keen interest in this dynamic industry.