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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Buying this book will encourage you to be long gamma
The central idea is that there are things that improve from being harmed. The opposite, fragile, is easy to understand and is one that we are already familiar with. The fragile are things which are analogous to coffee cups on tables, they are prone to be knocked over and cracking. A fragile parcel is one that should be handled with great care, while a robust parcel is one...
Published 8 months ago by Edward A. Thomson

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48 of 52 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars More is Less
I found the underlying points made by Taleb interesting and enlightening in the sense that it offered a fresh perspective albeit that the underlying issues are not novel. To an extent his subject material is the behavioural equivalent of evolution. Our behaviour is informed by negative events as well as positive and this makes us more resilient. Someone who has the...
Published 16 months ago by S. Thomas


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48 of 52 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars More is Less, 3 Mar 2013
By 
S. Thomas - See all my reviews
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I found the underlying points made by Taleb interesting and enlightening in the sense that it offered a fresh perspective albeit that the underlying issues are not novel. To an extent his subject material is the behavioural equivalent of evolution. Our behaviour is informed by negative events as well as positive and this makes us more resilient. Someone who has the occasional minor prang in a car is probably going to be safer than those who have never experienced a shunt and go round in a bubble of false security.

I do not pretend that this is a comprehensive deconstruction of Taleb's thesis but neither am I sure it should have taken 425 pages for him to make his point and a bibliography running to 24 pages to have got there. They say that a driver should drive for the comfort of their passenger and I believe that a writer should write with much the same objective in mind.

A point can be made in a pithy way and 'Freakanomics' achieved this on the subject of statistics. That brace of books may have been more frothy in tone but Levitt and Dubner succeeded in communicating some quite intricate concepts. Taleb made some interesting observations in Black Swan but I would not use the word succinct.

I often worry that popularity causes individuals to become caricatures of themselves, identifying and emphasising those characteristics which they believed made them popular to the degree that it becomes irritating. The comedian who ceases to be funny, the actor who elongates their dramatic emphasis, the writer who takes interesting thoughts but turns them into a belief system which they then name.

To my taste, Taleb laboured his points as if he relishes the cleverness of his own words and this rather put me off. Does this 'superhero of the mind' (to quote the dust jacket) actually communicate with sentences such as "Not using models of nonlinear effects such as convexity biases whilst doing 'empirical' work is like having to catalogue every apple falling from a tree and call the operation 'empiricism' instead of just using Newton's equilibrium"?

Many years ago Richard Dawkins set a high watermark for how to communicate complex ideas in a palatable way without over simplifying to the point of distortion. In my view, the tide is out on Antifragile. To lift a principle from Taleb, if the downside of writing in an over lengthy style is greater than the potential benefit, maybe one should cut down on the wordage.
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Buying this book will encourage you to be long gamma, 11 Nov 2013
By 
Edward A. Thomson (Glasgow, Scotland) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder (Paperback)
The central idea is that there are things that improve from being harmed. The opposite, fragile, is easy to understand and is one that we are already familiar with. The fragile are things which are analogous to coffee cups on tables, they are prone to be knocked over and cracking. A fragile parcel is one that should be handled with great care, while a robust parcel is one which doesn't care. An antifragile parcel would be one that wants to be abused.

The author also continues the theme that humans often over-plan and under estimate the severity of harm. He illustrates that trying to predict future harm can be very difficult and that the usual methods of error estimation are often of no help. Errors and poor design can be further compounded from large sizes and faster speeds, as well as believing that a system can be completely deterministic and knowable. His solution to all problems is to begin with a smart design which is less prone to fragility and is robust to the errors (but not risk-free).

I've read over many other reviews and note a lot of people had difficulty with understanding the book. I actually found the book to be comprehensible so at first I was surprised; however, I have had the benefit of reading his comments on his Facebook page. He posts frequently and has covered all the book topics at length. When you first encounter the ideas they may not make sense because he often uses phrases which are specific to his experience in finance. Once you are familiar with these concepts then it is fine. I appreciate that statement won't bring any comfort to someone who bought this book and doesn't have this knowledge. Therefore, I'd suggest that people may want to have a read over his Facebook fan page (his previous books help too). If you are unsure about terms such as fat tails, fragility, optionality, left tail, convexity, gamma, then I'd definitely recommend getting familiar with those terms as they appear a lot. Gamma is a somewhat strange quantity so I wouldn't necessarily strive for complete comprehension but rather try to get a minimal understanding of it.

If you are interested in risk, uncertainty and randomness then this book is likely to appeal. If you are from a maths or science background then you should cope without too much strain but it may require some background reading. Stephen Hawking wrote a best seller but I'd wager that most readers didn't fully comprehend it but that doesn't make it any less of a great book.
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16 of 19 people found the following review helpful
2.0 out of 5 stars A few good ideas but you have to wade through a lot of pages to get to them..., 14 Jan 2013
By 
J. Hughes - See all my reviews
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I haven't read Black Swans or Fooled by Randomness so came to this book with no preconceptions (aside from an interview with Taleb from the Guardian which piqued my interest in his ideas). I imagine that if the reader is fond of his previous work the frequent back-references will be appealing, whereas I found this a little repetitive and excluding.

It seems that the successes Taleb has experienced both intellectually and financially have lead to him being able to indulge in an over-long exposition of ideas that could fit into a single essay (as opposed to this 5-books-of-essays collection). He also seems to have many axes to grind and a need to boast about his physique and luxurious dining habits.

The most frustrating aspect of putting the time into reading and making notes on this is that: it is all "set up" and very little conclusion. Just as a neat summation/distillation seemed immanent he changes track. The best way to read might be to take the 1st paragraph of each essay and no more - the rest is just bloat.

I did enjoy aspects and have taken away some food for thought, but would take Taleb's own advice and stick to proven thinkers with a little more track record. It's fine but nothing special.
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10 of 12 people found the following review helpful
2.0 out of 5 stars good on ideas... poor on writing, 2 Jan 2013
By 
Don Panik (Cambridge UK) - See all my reviews
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Taleb has gained ground as one of the more influential post modern thinkers - having been said to have predicted the financial crisis that preceded the current recession. I read The Black Swan a couple of years ago - and although it is not an easy read, the ideas were fresh and convincing. His success since, seems to have further driven his iconoclasm, but unfortunately I found this latest book bloated, dull and bombastic.

The central concept of Anti-Fragility in biological and ecological systems, being relevant to survival in a turbulent business and social world, is essentially a simple but effective idea, and none the worse for that. However the way this is written is in danger of detracting from the application of Taleb's insight. This would be a pity, since it is easy to see how we do need a paradigm shift in the way that he suggests.

Still I see that you can now book yourself on a 2 day training course (at great expense) on applying anti-fragility in oganisational settings....

This could and should be a much better book.
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5 of 6 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Well hidden treasure, 19 Nov 2013
By 
A. Skudder (Crawley, West Sussex) - See all my reviews
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In the 500 pages of this book there is a really good 50-page extended essay, which is a bit obscured by the increasingly idiosyncratic writing. I can't complain because I knew what I was letting myself in for, having previously read the Fooled by Randomness and Black Swan books and this is really just a continuation in both content and style. In fact one of his earlier books has actually changed my life in a very real way - about five years ago I gave up reading newspapers after decades of ploughing through at least one of the broadsheets every day - so I don't take him lightly.

I think it is fair to say that Taleb could do with a strong-willed editor. There is a well-known principle in presentations that you need to reinforce an ide through repetition (tell them what you are going to tell them, then tell them, then tell them what you have told them) and this takes that idea to extremes with a list of contents that spans nine pages, then three pages of chapter summaries and then a prologue that basically summarises the whole book in a few pages. Each section of the book has a brief summary as does each chapter in the section. In addition to that there is an appendix to the prologue (!) an epilogue and 80 pages of index, appendices, notes, bibliography and acknowledgements. The point is that you can cutout 20% of the pages and still be left with the whole book to read.

As for the actual meat of the book, it can get a bit ranty. The author has a long list of people he doesn't like and misses no opportunity to lay into them. His targets include bureaucrats, bankers, experts, risk managers, journalists, Alan Greenspan, economists (he refers to them as "economists and other lunatics"), 'ivy-leaguers', academics, Aristotle, scientists (who he refers to as "so-called scientists") and Davos attenders. While many of us might not have a lot of time for many on the list (especially journalists and bankers) Taleb seems to make it all very personal.

At the very least it makes the book read like Father Ted's acceptance speech for the Golden Cleric awards, at worst it makes the book read like the rantings of a conspiracy theorist. It does not help that he invents grand-sounding names for people and then capitalises them, so he refers to 'the Soviet-Harvard Delusion' or the 'Central Fragilista Delegation' or refers to Alan Greenspan as the 'Uber-Fragilista Alan Greenspan'. Normally, if you hear somebody delivering something in this style (the style of David Icke or a bearded bloke yelling on a street corner) you switch off. That would be a shame here because there are some interesting ideas hidden away.

Fortunately, all this ranting is as amusing to read as it is annoying. I kind of picture Victor Meldrew reading it.

There are a few people that Taleb seems to like, but not many: Benoit Mandelbrot, Thales, Seneca, Steve Jobs and Ayn Rand.

I don't think Taleb would like me. Not because of this review (he says he likes criticism) and not (just) because my day job is in risk management, but because I appreciate the points he is making but don't ever intend to completely buy into his philosophy. Yes the ideas of optionality and asymmetry seem to work but I'll add them to many of the other theories out there and adapt them. I think Taleb would prefer some ideal world where everything and everyone just followed his ideas.

Unfortunately, his ideas carried to the logical conclusion are not practical. He considers the ideal way of life to be some sort of mediterranean agrarian life with everybody living an artisan lifestyle and no employees, which is not practical with out huge populations and our collective expectations as consumers.

None of this is to say the book is rubbish. The author is the current in-vogue thinker with the in-vogue big idea (Black Swans) which replaces 'Nudge' as the big idea, which replaced 'Tipping Points', 'The Wisdom of Crowds' and 'Long Tails' as previous big ideas, and this big idea does really get you thinking about some pretty big ideas - some of them pretty scary if Taleb is right.

Anybody who has read and enjoyed books by writers such as Levit & Dubner, Daniel Kahneman, Malcolm Gladwell, Dan Ariely or Jonathan Haidt would enjoy this book, or at least appreciate it. Anybody else mightdo, but should probably try something friendlier first and start with Freakonomics or Thinking Fast and Slow.
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5 of 6 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Exciting ideas across personal wealth, health and public policy, 4 Sep 2013
This review is from: Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder (Paperback)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an exceptional writer - though not entirely in a good way. He is variously described as a "superhero of the mind" (Boyd Tonkin) and "Wall Street's principal dissident" (Malcolm Gladwell), and much commentary focuses on his style more than his content. Few dispute that he is brilliant, though he feels compelled to demonstrate this with striking frequency.

His most recent book Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder is an exciting challenge to received wisdom about adopting middle-of-the-road strategies in personal health and finance, macroeconomics and much more besides. But it comes with a strong dose of personal advertisement and gratuitous demonstration of Taleb's breadth of learning.

It is worth putting up with this though. The essence of his argument is that a spectrum runs from fragility through robustness to antifragility, and that we should seek to develop antifragility - the ability to become stronger through challenges - in our bodies, our finances, our politics and our economies.

With examples from a wide variety of disciplines Taleb illustrates that we often describe certain things as good or bad when in fact the key consideration is dose. By careful dose control we can increase our tolerances of many things that would otherwise be very harmful to us - and in doing so we increase our antifragility. Taleb himself reacts to this insight by training with streetfighters rather than personal trainers and investing in a contrarian portfolio.

His arguments have fascinating ramifications for individuals and policy makers. For example, he suggests that our public health systems are riven by agency risks and the malign influence of what he calls "iatrogenics". He praises entrepreneurs as the heroes of humanity - the people who knowingly or unknowingly take risks that probably condemn them to losses but drive forward progress for the societies to which they belong.

One of Taleb's interesting conclusions is that we are terrible at making complex judgements and that we should therefore trust the only reliable assessor of quality - time. In other words, we should suspend judgement on things (foods, medicines, concepts, philosophies) until they have stood the test of time. He points out that the best predictor of how long something will last is how long it has already lasted. As a result, he advocates drinking wine and coffee but avoids all processed foods.

This is an exciting and bold book and it may change your behaviour in any of several ways. You may consider changing your diet, your attitude to saving and investment and even your career. It is well worth reading.
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5 of 6 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Pompous but well-informed and relevant, 4 Jan 2013
By 
J. Morris "Josh" (London) - See all my reviews
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Hot on the heels of his other successful books about economic theory (Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan) Taleb has revealed another interesting concept about current financial markets - we are trying to protect ourselves from economic shock by removing volatility, but this actually weakens our ability to survive such shocks by removing the survival of the fittest element of competition. This is the central concept of the book (in a nut-shell) that there are things out there that benefit from chaos, not merely survive it, but actually revel and grow from disorder. These things are the Anti-Fragile.

This book can be read in a couple of ways; a cursory walk-through will expose the reader to the intriguing concepts of Iatrogenics, Procrustean beds and Mithridatism - all the while talking about subjects as broad as the formative years of the middle-east to weight-lifting. However to the technical reader; all of the associated graphs & formulae are included in the appendices should you want more depth and of course; his arguments are well bibliographed & referenced.

These topics are all milestones in his book and sound random when relayed as a string but the arrival at each of these points is well considered and explained. However, it is the absolute disdain that drips from pages of this book that leaves a bad-taste in your mouth. Taleb writes whilst sneering at the current participants of the financial-system and proudly lauding the superiority of his system dogmatically - it is easier to point & laugh at something, but far more difficult to create something better in its place. His megalomania is only further compounded as we read about the people he likes to lunch with, his exercise regime and his diet. It all seems rather boastful and supercilious to the layman.

Pomposity aside, this is a thought-provoking book that will make you reconsider some of the band-aids we have slapped on the Bretton-Woods-based financial system we currently have. It suggests an alternative, and for that reason alone it should be lauded, but when this is not only a good idea, but well informed and intelligent it is truly worth a long, hard look. Highly recommended.
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66 of 82 people found the following review helpful
1.0 out of 5 stars Confusing and carelessly written - but a lovely cover, 23 Nov 2012
By 
Matthew Leitch (Epsom, Surrey, England) - See all my reviews
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This book is not written for the reader. There is an 8 page contents list, but it's one of those that is designed to be mysterious and intriguing rather than show you what's in the book. Then it has 'chapter summaries and map', also written to tease you about possible meaning without actually providing any usable information. There's a graphical summary at the back, and that gives some hints, but I soon got lost, even though he doesn't seem to be saying anything that is not already well known and obvious.

There is a 7 page glossary for terms invented by Taleb, but 'antifragile' isn't one of them. The glossary appears to be far from complete, but it is hard to establsh exactly how incomplete because the glossary is not in alphabetical order - or any apparent order at all.

Don't expect much enlightenment from the definitions themselves. Here's the first definition I picked at random: "Naive Rationalism: Thinking that the reasons for things are, by default, accessible to university buildings. Also called the Soviet-Harvard illusion." Accessible to university buildings? This kind of bizarre logical slip is quite common in the book.

The writing has many grammatical errors and punctuation mistakes. It definitely needed more attention from a copy editor. There are also readablity glitches that make reading unnecessarily hard. For example, the third paragraph of the prologue says "We just don't want to just survive uncertainty, to just about make it." The first 'just' should have been removed because it causes your mind to spin. This is basic stuff.

The arguments often rely on analogies and anecdotes, rather than just using them for illustration.

There are also many stories included to illustrate how clever and honest Taleb is and how mistaken and dishonest lots of other people are. Here's a typical paragraph of this kind of material to give you a flavour: "For a minute I wondered if I was living on another planet or if the gentleman's PhD and research career had led to this blindness and his strange loss of common sense - or if people without practical sense usually manage to get the energy and interest to acquire a PhD in the fictional world of equation economics. Is there a selection bias?"

From a technical point of view, potential readers should understand that Taleb is a frequentist when using probability. If you are any kind of Bayesian then the technical content, if you can find some, could be annoying.

I haven't read all the book. Actually all I could do was start, then skim and sample. I found it unbearable and a waste of time.

However, I would guess that if someone else had presented the same basic ideas it would have been a bearable 100 pages; Taleb makes it 500+ pages of torture for the reader.

There might be some usable, novel ideas on how to design businesses, strategies, or portfolios in ways that limit their downside but not their upside but I couldn't find them. That may be because of the unhelpful headings, or because there aren't any such ideas in the book.

The front cover quotes a journalist, saying "A superhero of the mind" Well, Taleb is not my idea of superhero.
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101 of 126 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars POPULAR ICONOCLASTICISM, 22 Nov 2012
By 
Jeff Walmsley "JW" (Wales) - See all my reviews
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This book came to me free for review under the Amazon Vine Programme. Under other circumstances I might well have bought it, thanks to fulsome praise by others; but I would possibly have wished I hadn't. The professor's previous work, "The Black Swan", attracted 40 one-star and 59 five-star ratings, so he's someone you either love or hate. I review it from my personal viewpoint as an average reader seeking informed diversion.

Whilst the professor may be a great thinker, he is not a great writer. When he published "The Black Swan", he was accused of expanding a magazine article into a book; this work could equally be abbreviated without detriment. A book of such length and hoped-for importance needs to read easily to attract the widest audience; by and large, this one doesn't, partly because thinkers feel the need to use lots of unusual words to express themselves (to show that they are thinkers).

But on top of inflicting us with the full extent of his vocabulary - which, by the nature of his employment, naturally exceeds that of your average person - he devises yet new words and expressions with which to confound, together with graphs and formulae. These apart, though, mellifluousness of style is still not his strong point anyway. Reduced to its essentials, the book eventually comes across as a turgid, rambling, interminable, (but sometimes entertaining and ingenious) rant against a range of justifiably popular Aunt Sallies of the day. It exhausts one long before page 426, where this supposedly 544-page book ends, the rest being a much-needed glossary, graphs and formulae, additional notes, afterthoughts and a 24-page (!) bibliography.

In distinguishing between doers and thinkers, he has little good to say of his own group - especially Nobel Prizewinners in the sciences, their sin having been to explain the pragmatic discoveries of doers in scientific terms, and claim the credit. I don't see his problem; it's always better to know WHY something is so, rather than simply knowing that it IS so (if only because it might save you from those occasions when it isn't so). And if a scientific discovery is "accidental" (he uses the word pejoratively) - well, the accident wouldn't have happened if the research hadn't triggered it...

The Professor has anyway cottoned on to the very same cunning plan as his maligned Nobel prizewinners - he's taken the empirical, pragmatic and often obvious prejudices of many a man in the street (or tabloid journalist), and converted them into an intellectualised, modern philosophy with the aid of maths. But all he describes is the human species continuing to behave like it always has, albeit nowadays in more ingenious, thinking ways. Long before bankers and traders contrived both to ruin economies and to profit by the losses of others (vandalism and stealing, in other words) our early ancestors were busy vandalising the homes and stealing the women and crops of their neighbours; it's what we do; and early monarchs, tribal chiefs, holy men and witch doctors were interfering disadvantageously in the lives of common people, long before Governments and the medical profession (a favourite Aunt Sally) began doing likewise.

The book is flagged by the publishers as "how to thrive in an uncertain world". If you read deeply enough, you can infer from the Professor's analysis that the best way is to be as mean, scheming, thieving, conniving, heartless, unscrupulous and generally dishonest as the next man, and - like his (presumably fictitious) favoured character, the very rich, Fat Tony, whom in this book he kills off - to take maximumum advantage of fools. But he doesn't suggest how to eliminate the human frailties which cause the wrongs he exposes (apart from killing off fragilistas).

The Taleb-worshippers will buy, if only for the gleeful, dinner-table iconoclasm, as will anyone who enjoys a good rant, or who hasn't previously given much thought to the points he makes at such excruciating length (or who simply wants to pretend to be a thinker).

Finally as an aside, I don't think the publishers have done their author any favours by quoting on the cover his lofty rejection of "prizes, honorary degrees, awards and ceremonialism". Some MIGHT infer that this contained just a tiny element of - possibly pre-emptive - sour grapes (not me, of course). Although I notice he sensibly doesn't include "Distinguished Professorships" amongst his rejected honours. Well, even thinkers have to eat...
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17 of 21 people found the following review helpful
1.0 out of 5 stars Anti-modesty makes this a tough read, 25 July 2013
By 
Dr. P. J. A. Wicks (London, England) - See all my reviews
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I first came across Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Black Swan" at a friend's house. It was a Sunday morning, I was a little worse for wear from the previous night, and I was enjoyably relaxed into a plush sofa looking to while away the time. In both that book and "Fooled by Randomness", Taleb's down to earth writing helped make sense of incredibly complex economic and mathematical concepts. His use of anecdotes from his time as a hedge fund trader spiced things up considerably, particularly at a time when banker-bashing was turning into a national pastime. So I was pleased to be asked to review his latest book, Anti-Fragile for the Amazon Vine program.

My first warning sign was in the back cover with the author bio. Normally where it would say the author has won the X-Prize, the Nobel, and a Blue Peter merit badge, it simply says "Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport." Just a few pages in, with his totally unnessecarily coining of the jarring word "Antifragile", it became clear that either Taleb has started believing his own hype (a jacket quote from Malcolm Gladwell does not inspire faith...) or his editors are too timid to rein in his writing style. This would be fine if consistent - but he alternates beween needlessly long garden-path strewn sentences to jarringly veering back to a "My first Psychology textbook" explanation of human biases first reported decades ago.

Worst still are the polemics: "I am even more distraught for the future of the human race when I see a nerd behind a computer in a D.C. suburb, walking distance from a Starbucks coffeehouse, or a shopping mall, capable of blowing up an entire battalion in a remote place, say Pakistan, and afterward going to the gym for a "workout" (compare his culture to that of knights or samurai)."

When these touch on things I know something about (medicine), his knowledge and understanding falls far short of the levels of confidence he shows in proffering an opinion. I'm guessing specialists in other disciplines feel the same way.

All in all, a great disappointment, I hope he will find some humility or risk going the way of the Dawkins...
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Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder
Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Paperback - 6 Jun 2013)
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