The Rhythms of History: A Universal Theory of Civilizations (Paperback)

Description of OLD Edition of 2002 (this web page):
This book makes History into a quantitative Science. It begins with a hard hitting, "tell it like it is" chapter on the current international situation with statements such as: "The United States and Western civilization is now engaged in a small Vietnam-style war on a global scale at the time of this writing. This war is still in the early stages of development. … The attacks on the World Trade Center by Muslim terrorists may have the same significance for Western civilization that the Gothic invasion of Rome itself in the prime of the Empire (the First Century AD) had for the future of Rome. They may be a premonition of things to come - not necessarily soon but perhaps in a few centuries. The Goths returned three centuries later and remained as permanent conquerors. … Over the long term the West must free itself from a dependence on Muslim oil. Muslim oil revenues are the fuel for the development of weapons of mass destruction by Iran and Iraq. In the future they will supply the revenues of an expansionist Islam. … As the silk trade looted the Roman Empire of its gold and reduced its economy, the trade in oil is looting the West of its prosperity and freedom of action. The rise and fall of oil prices has a significantly greater effect on the American and world economy than the raising and lowering of interest rates by central banks. " The book then develops a theory of civilizations that supports these observations.

According to The Rhythms of History, the basis of civilizations was laid with a genetic mutation (found by Ding et al) 40,000 years ago that created bold enterprising individuals who became the leadership group of civilizations: a group that Toynbee called the "creative minority." When the world's climate became warmer and more stable 10,000 years ago the seeds of civilizations began to germinate. Thus the origin of civilizations is tied to human genetics.

The book then shows that a long-term social behavior pattern of mankind (based on four generation trends) causes civilizations to develop and "oscillate" in patterns of routs and rallies. Civilizations rise and fall due to their internal human dynamics. The theory of civilization is developed using equations and 68 diagrams that show a close detailed match between the theory and the actual history of all known Asian, European and African civilizations over the last 5,500 years. The theory projects the future of today's civilizations (including the future of Western and Islamic civilizations).

It also successfully describes the interaction of barbarians and civilizations, the interaction of two civilizations, the impact of modern technology on civilizations (it accounts for the Luddite reaction to the Industrial Revolution), the impact of major environmental events on civilizations (e.g. the collapse of Minoan civilization due to a volcanic eruption), and the disintegration of civilizations. It also accounts for the tremendous growth phases seen in many civilizations such as the building of the great pyramids in Egyptian civilizations. Based on the theory fifteen new civilizations are identified including new prehistoric Chinese and Egyptian civilizations.

Having shown the success of the theory for earth civilizations it considers the form of extraterrestrial civilizations and calculates their impact on Western civilization should contact be established. The book also shows the need for the colonization of space and nearby planets if mankind is to progress in the future.

The book analyzes the impact of the lengthening life spans of mankind on the future of civilizations. Predictions are made for the "state of the world" for 2050 and 2100. A detailed understanding the past enables the theory of civilizations to make predictions for the future.

Defining Progress to be the sum of the world's civilizations the book shows that Progress seems to be approximately linearly increasing over the last 5,500 years. A plot of Progress appears on the book's cover (shown on this web page) together with the contributions of each civilization to Progress. (The vertical order of the civilizations in the plot is arbitrary. Older civilizations tend to be lower in the plot.)

The Rhythms of History is a tour de force that makes History a Science rather than a collection of random events. It is the first detailed mathematical treatment of history. Although the book contains mathematics it is intended for the general reader as well as the mathematically inclined. There are copious verbal descriptions of the theory as well as many figures plotting the theory versus historical events. A qualitative, descriptive theory of civilizations is also presented that is like a "Dow Theory of Civilizations." --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From the Publisher
This is not Science Fiction! But it may seem as if it were. It is that exciting. Asimov wrote the Foundation Sci Fi books about a group of mathematicians who manipulate the galaxy with a theory of civilizations. That idea is now, in part, reality. This book presents an exciting, quantitative, Theory of Civilizations supported by the data in Toynbee's classic twelve volume A Study of History. The theory is based on the long-term social nature of mankind. It reveals a linear upward Progress in Mankind's history (see the gold braided line on the front cover). Some highlights:

A long-term analysis of the conflict between the civilizations of the West and Islam.
A quantitative theory of all known civilizations showing a close match with historical events (displayed in 68 figures.)
An explanation of the origin of civilizations as the effect of a genetic mutation 40,000 years ago (that gave rise to Toynbee's "creative minority" - the group that provides leadership to a civilization) combined with favorable climactic conditions for the past 10,000 years.
A supporting qualitative theory of civilizations similar to the Dow Theory of Wall Street.
A numerical theory of the interactions of two civilizations; the interaction of a barbarian society with a civilization; the effects of increasing human lifetimes on civilizations; and the effect of technology on a civilization with corroborating historical evidence.
The identification of 15 new unrecognized civilizations.
A quantitative theory of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations and their interaction with human civilizations.
A quantitative, social theory of the Roman Catholic Church for the past 1500 years. A breakdown is predicted in roughly 2004.

Breakdowns are predicted in Japanese civilization in roughly 2002, and in Chinese, Indian and Islamic civilizations in roughly 2084. The West is predicted to rally (from a current stage of decline) in approximately 2048. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

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• Books > History > Ancient History & Civilisation
• Books > History > North America
• Books > History > World History > Pre-500

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