See buying choices for this item to see if it's one of the millions that are eligible for Amazon Prime.

11 used & new from £1.99
See All Buying Options
Have one to sell? Sell yours here
 
   
Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty
 
 
Share your own customer images
Search inside another edition of this book

Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty (Paperback)

by Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)
4.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (8 customer reviews)

Available from these sellers.


1 new from £9.00 10 used from £1.99
Other Editions: RRP: Our Price: Other Offers:
Paperback (New Ed) £9.99 £6.49 31 used & new from £2.24

Customers Viewing This Page May Be Interested in These Sponsored Links

  (What is this?)
Uncertainty Assessment
   www.Fugro-Jason.com    Learn how to quantify and minimize uncertainty now. 
Learning Live
   www.Study-From-Home.co.uk    Study From Home, Improve Yourself. Learning Live. 
  
 

Customers Who Bought This Item Also Bought

Bad Science

Bad Science

by Ben Goldacre
4.6 out of 5 stars (140)  £4.85
Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making

Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making

by Gerd Gigerenzer
5.0 out of 5 stars (1)  £6.74
Irrationality

Irrationality

by Stuart Sutherland
4.2 out of 5 stars (26)  £6.99
Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious

by Gerd Gigerenzer
£12.74
How to Lie with Statistics (Penguin Business)

How to Lie with Statistics (Penguin Business)

by Darrell Huff
4.6 out of 5 stars (18)  £6.69
› Explore similar items

Product details

  • Paperback: 320 pages
  • Publisher: Allen Lane (4 Jul 2002)
  • Language English
  • ISBN-10: 0713995122
  • ISBN-13: 978-0713995121
  • Product Dimensions: 23.3 x 15.3 x 2.5 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
  • Amazon.co.uk Sales Rank: 553,707 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

    •  Would you like to update product info or give feedback on images?

  • See Complete Table of Contents

Product Description

Product Description
In the beginning of the 20th century, the father of modern science fiction, H.G. Wells, predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. Yet, a century on, most of us, from TV weather forecasters to the American President, seem to have no idea of how to reason about uncertainties. This volume offers a treatment for the "disease" of statistical illiteracy. Aimed at helping us understand risks in the real world, it shows how a proper understanding of uncertainties can make the difference between hope and despair.

About the Author
Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behaviour and Cognition in Berlin, and a former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. Dan Dennett writes: "Gigerenzer is one of the smartest psychologists I know, and he's bursting with great ideas. His topic is dynamite".
Inside This Book (Learn More)
Browse and search another edition of this book.
Browse Sample Pages
Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
Search inside this book:

Suggested Tags from Similar Products

 (What's this?)
Be the first one to add a relevant tag (keyword that's strongly related to this product)
Check a corresponding box or enter your own tags in the field below
(4)
(4)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(1)
(1)

Your tags: Add your first tag
 
See most popular tags

What Do Customers Ultimately Buy After Viewing This Item?

Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty
75% buy the item featured on this page:
Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty 4.0 out of 5 stars (8)
Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making
12% buy
Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making 5.0 out of 5 stars (1)
£6.74
Irrationality
5% buy
Irrationality 4.2 out of 5 stars (26)
£6.99
How to Lie with Statistics (Penguin Business)
4% buy
How to Lie with Statistics (Penguin Business) 4.6 out of 5 stars (18)
£6.69
Explore similar items
 

Customer Reviews

8 Reviews
5 star:
 (4)
4 star:
 (1)
3 star:
 (2)
2 star:
 (1)
1 star:    (0)
 
 
 
 
 
Average Customer Review
4.0 out of 5 stars (8 customer reviews)
 
 
 
 
Share your thoughts with other customers:
Most Helpful Customer Reviews

 
9 of 9 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars Interesting but a bit repetitive, 20 Jun 2003
By A Customer
This review is from: Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty (Paperback)
I picked up this book because it was short-listed for the Aventis science prize. It is an interesting book that aims to assist the reader in becoming literate in the sort of risk assessment statistics we encounter all the time e.g. 'this drug reduces your risk of heart disease over 10 years by 50%'. It focuses on understanding conditional probabilities, using natural frequencies to assess uncertainty and the difference between absolute and relative risks.

Although it does help you to understand everyday statistics of this nature better, it only appears to make about 3 points throughout the entire book. Most of the chapters just recycle the same ideas using various, mainly medical, examples. A punchy 20 page book would have been just as informative, less repetitive and thus more interesting and effective.

Comment Comment | Permalink | Was this review helpful to you? Yes No (Report this)



 
5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars An essential contribution to public education, 29 May 2003
By Miland Joshi (Birmingham, UK) - See all my reviews
This review is from: Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty (Paperback)
I bought this book to while away time on a plane journey to the USA on holiday, and liked it so much that when I was asked to give an informal introductory Stats talk to a group of doctors in New York, I recommended it to them and worked through the example in Fig 4-2.
The book does a very good job of explaining Franklin's Law (nothing is certain except death and taxes), illustrating it with important problems like HIV tests and DNA testing. The idea that even DNA tests are not infallible will come as news to some! It also discusses cost-benefit issues in diagnostic tests and the way to explain risk in a way that is not misleading, specifically emphasising the value of ARR and NNT over RR reduction.
All in all, the book seems to me an essential contribution to public education, especially for doctors and lawyers.
Most highly recommended.
Comment Comment | Permalink | Was this review helpful to you? Yes No (Report this)



 
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars essential reading, 10 Jan 2003
This book is the perfect antidote to the mistakes of reasoning we are all prone to, when faced with uncertainty and rare events. It offers itself as a way of turning ignorance into insight, and follows through on the offer.

What if you have a positive mammogram, or test positive for HIV? Do you know how likely it is that you have actually got breast cancer, or that you are indeed HIV positive? Most of us don't have the foggiest, yet this is the sort of information we all need desperately.

There is a simplification at the heart of the book - not all statistical information can be summarised effectively using natural frequencies - and the author is not a mathematician and gives no sign that he understands that this is a simplification. But often enough natural frequencies will do the trick, and you will find no better explanation of how to think than this book.

What can I say? Everyone should read it. That means you!

Comment Comment | Permalink | Was this review helpful to you? Yes No (Report this)


Share your thoughts with other customers: Create your own review
 
 
 
Most Recent Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 stars Insights into turning data into understanding
This book is highly recommended for anyone who has to use numbers to communicate information or who tries to interpret numeric information to make informed judgements... Read more
Published 4 months ago by Steven Unwin

2.0 out of 5 stars very repetitive
I bought this because it was recommended in Ben Goldacre's Bad Science as a good book on research, irrationality and mathematics. Read more
Published 5 months ago by Russell

4.0 out of 5 stars The knack of statistics
Gerd Gigerenzer's main message is this: when it concerns statistics, better speak about frequencies than about percentages. Read more
Published 17 months ago by Christian Jongeneel

3.0 out of 5 stars Teach yourself how to avoid being confused by medical stats
This book takes a simple premise - that ordinary people, even scientists and doctors - are frequently confused by statistics. Read more
Published on 1 Sep 2003 by David Abbott

5.0 out of 5 stars Everyone should read this book
While I have some quibbles with the style and layout (the book essentially comes down to one point which is repeated several times), this is a book everyone should... Read more
Published on 11 Jul 2003

Only search this product's reviews


Customer Discussions

 Beta (What's this?)
This product's forum (0 discussions)
  Discussion Replies Latest Post
  No discussions yet

Ask questions, Share opinions, Gain insight
Start a new discussion
Topic:
First post:
Prompts for sign-in
  [Cancel]

   

Listmania!

Create a Listmania! list

Look for similar items by category

Feedback

Health & Beauty at Amazon.co.uk

Elemis Resurface and Renew Skin Care Gift Set of 4 Products
From soap to shavers, massagers to mascara, stock up on your daily essentials or truly pamper yourself.

›Discover Health & Beauty

  

Up to 75% off Shoes

Shoe Clearance - 75% off Shoes
Save up to 75% on shoes for the whole family.

›Shop clearance shoes

  

Up to 53% off Braun Series Shavers

Braun Series 3 390cc Clean & Renew System Rechargeable Foil Electric Shaver
Get in touch with your smooth side with Braun Series shavers, now with Gillette blade technology.

›Discover Braun Series at Amazon.co.uk

  

Treat Someone

Amazon.co.uk Gift Certificates--available in any amount from £5 to £500 With an Amazon.co.uk Gift Certificate, you can get them what they want (even if you don't know what that is).

›Learn more about Gift Certificates

  
Ad

Where's My Stuff?

Delivery and Returns

Need Help?

Your Recent History

  (What's this?)
You have no recently viewed items or searches.

After viewing product detail pages or search results, look here to find an easy way to navigate back to pages you are interested in.

Look to the right column to find helpful suggestions for your shopping session.
Continue Shopping: Top Sellers
The Girl Who Played with Fire
The Girl Who Played with Fire by Stieg Larsson
4.5 out of 5 stars (72)£3.86
 Breaking Dawn (Twilight Saga)
Breaking Dawn (Twilight Saga) by Stephenie Meyer
4.1 out of 5 stars (457)£6.49
 The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo by Stieg Larsson
4.1 out of 5 stars (161)£3.99
 The Host
The Host by Stephenie Meyer
4.2 out of 5 stars (80)£3.86

amazon.co.uk Amazon Home
International Sites:  United States  |  Germany  |  France  |  Japan  |  Canada  |  China
Business Programs: Sell on Amazon  |  Fulfilment by Amazon  |  Join Associates  |  Join Advantage
Customer Service  |  Help  |  View Basket  |  Your Account
About Amazon.co.uk  |  Careers at Amazon
Conditions of Use & Sale |  Privacy Notice  © 1996-2009, Amazon.com, Inc. and its affiliates