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10 of 10 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Sobering study of fiscal failures, 17 Nov 2009
Every so often, experts sucker people into bidding up the prices of stocks or real estate because they announce that the economy has fundamentally changed. As the aftermath of the real estate bubble illustrates, the basics of economics don't really change, no matter what fantasies people come to believe. Economics professors Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff present a thorough historical and statistical tour of financial hubris through the centuries, a postmortem that will make you wonder how anyone ever believed "this time is different." The staid tone, formulas, charts and somewhat confusing organization make this fascinating history challenging to absorb. Yet, the content, which sweeps ambitiously and carefully across centuries and countries, rewards the persistent reader with many insights and gems, like the nation-by-nation appendix of fiscal history low points. getAbstract recommends this analytical overview to history buffs, investors, managers and policy makers who seek perspective on "financial folly."
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8 of 8 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
The irrational syndrome:viewing impending financial crises through pink-tinted lenses, 23 Dec 2009
The book is significant and substantial. The data collated by the authors from other sources or emanating from their own research is impressive. But the book is not simply the product of hard working and meticulous authors but also of intelligent ones. The authors are insightful and incisive. The wealth of data render tables and graphs illustrate the points made in the text with crystalline clarity. The authors certainly do not lack wit but their aim is not to entertain and create pyrotechnics but to inform, provide substance and in this way fulfill the reader in his/her gaining insight into the nature, severity, indicators and sequencing of a wide array of financial crises. The authors are meticulous and explain with professional integrity to the reader the methodologies they employ and the merits but also limitations of these methodologies;they are considerate to the reader to the point of advising which parts to skip without losing continuity. It is true that the book is rigorous and scholarly but accessible to the intelligent layman with elementary knowledge in Statistics and modest exposure to Economics vocabulary.
The authors dispel compellingly and conclusively the "this-time-is-different" syndrome. The syndrome simply stated is that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the current boom, unlike the many that preceded catastrophic collapses in the past, is built on sound fundamentals, structural reforms, technological innovation, and good policy. The book in detailing crises that have arisen over the past eight centuries exposes this myth and shows that boom-bust cycles recur with relentless regularity, a trend that is likely to continue in the future.
But the preceding serves simply as a point of departure and the focus of the book is on the crises themselves while systematic data and Macroeconomic Time Series cover the period 1800-2008.
The book examines a wide array of financial crises such as sovereign defaults (foreign and domestic), banking crises, exchange rate crises, hyperinflation while it observes that crises often occur in clusters. The penultimate chapter examines situations such as the Great Depression of the 1930s and the latest world wide financial crisis which it labels the "Second Great Contraction"- in which crises occur in clusters and on a global scale.
The book shows that advanced countries and economies may have "graduated" from serial default on sovereign debt and recurrent episodes of very high inflation as the cases of Austria, France, Spain and others illustrate. But History tells us that "graduation" from recurrent banking financial crises is much more elusive and that advanced economies are as vulnerable to them as emerging economies.
The literature suggests that markedly rising asset prices, slowing real economic activity, large current account deficits, and sustained debt built ups (whether public, private, or both) are important precursors to financial crisis;also sustained capital inflows are particularly strong markers for financial crises. The preceding were very prevalent and pronounced preceding the subprime crisis in the United States which evolved into a major global financial crisis parallel only to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The aftermath of severe financial crises particularly global are characterized by asset market collapses which are deep and prolonged, profound collapses in output and employment, and government debt that explodes not only due to bail outs but also due to collapse in revenues and soaring interest rates on debt.
Serious global financial crises are painful and protracted events extending over several years.
In concluding, I cannot recommend the book strongly enough to the serious reader but at the same time I caution that the book is not suited to the casual reader and the faint-hearted.
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5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Review of 'This time it is different', 27 Nov 2009
An essential text book for those interested in the financial panic of 2007/08, with all the required data. It puts the crisis in an historic perspective. By looking at the multitude of financial crises that have ocurred, it gets away from the narrow comparison with the Great Depression. An important read.
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