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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
 
 

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Paperback)

by Daniel Kahneman (Editor), Paul Slovic (Editor), Amos Tversky (Editor) "Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained a significant result which confirms your theory (z = 2.23, p < .05,..." (more)
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Product details

  • Paperback: 544 pages
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press (30 April 1982)
  • Language English
  • ISBN-10: 0521284147
  • ISBN-13: 978-0521284141
  • Product Dimensions: 22.6 x 14.7 x 2.3 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (1 customer review)
  • Amazon.co.uk Sales Rank: 121,649 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)
  • See Complete Table of Contents

Product Description

Review
"The papers chosen for this volume are an excellent collection, generally well-written and fascinating." Journal of Economic Literature

"The examples are lively, the style is engaging, and it is as entertaining as it is enlightening." Times Literary Supplement

"...an important and well-written book." Journal of the American Statistical Association

"...a good collection of papers on an important topic." Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology

"Clearly, this is an important book. Anyone who undertakes judgment and decision research should own it." Contemporary Psychology

Product Description
The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.

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Inside This Book (Learn More)
First Sentence
"Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained a significant result which confirms your theory (z = 2.23, p < .05, two-tailed). Read the first page
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Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases 5.0 out of 5 stars (1)
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Choices, Values, and Frames 5.0 out of 5 stars (1)
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Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
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Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions
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14 of 15 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars This is the best book I've ever seen about probability., 21 Oct 1998
By A Customer
I've never seen better explanations of how probabilities should be calculated. And the book is fascinating -- especially what the authors describe about the results of surveys designed to reveal the most common mistakes people make when estimating probabilities.
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