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Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making
 
 

Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making (Hardcover)

by Professor Chris Chapman (Author), Stephen Ward (Author) "'Uncertainty' in the plain English sense of 'lack of certainty' has important implications for what can be achieved by organizations ..." (more)
4.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
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Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty: A Constructively Simple Approach to Decision Making + Project Risk Management: Processes, Techniques and Insights, 2nd Edition + Identifying and Managing Project Risk: Essential Tools for Failure-Proofing Your Project
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Product details

  • Hardcover: 512 pages
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons (27 Aug 2002)
  • Language English
  • ISBN-10: 0470847905
  • ISBN-13: 978-0470847909
  • Product Dimensions: 22.4 x 15.4 x 4 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 4.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
  • Amazon.co.uk Sales Rank: 412,772 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)
  • See Complete Table of Contents

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Product Description

Product Description

This title confidently puts forward a practical, new approach to decision making in an uncertain business world.

Many variables are accounted for and the authors are innovative in integrating previous types of decision–making approaches with a more fluid, and therefore realistic model that can be applied across a wide range of contexts and decisions.

A new title on a important topic that not only stands well on its own, but also complements Chapman and Ward′s previous title Project Risk Management. This book is practical and rigorous yet written in an engaging way.

It is perfect for courses, or to be used by practitioners.


From the Inside Flap

Rigorously grounded conceptually but developed to meet practical concerns, this book underpins and extends the scope and power of current approaches to the management of risk and uncertainty in projects and related operational and strategic management decision making.

Ten tales, based on real cases, explore a range of project related problems, including: cost estimation, pricing competitive bids, risk allocation and incentive contract design, evaluation of threats and opportunities, buffer management in a supply chain, investment appraisal, portfolio management, and strategy formulation. Each tale provides practical guidance on achieving effective and efficient uncertainty management through simple analysis and discussion of emergent issues.

Using a ′constructively simple′ approach to model building and the associated decision support processes, the authors show the reader how to take the guesswork out of managing risk and uncertainty. Keeping formal analysis simple, without being simplistic, and adding complexity only when it facilitates additional insights, they provide a framework for ′constructive simplicity′ which can be used to enhance risk and uncertainty management in any area of managerial decision making, whether in a project, operational, or strategic context.


Inside This Book (Learn More)
First Sentence
'Uncertainty' in the plain English sense of 'lack of certainty' has important implications for what can be achieved by organizations. Read the first page
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Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
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Customer Reviews

3 Reviews
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Average Customer Review
4.7 out of 5 stars (3 customer reviews)
 
 
 
 
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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars The power in this book is in its combination., 27 Aug 2003
By A Customer
On its own this book is useful in allowing the reader to think about making decisions under risk. On its own it does not tell you how to manage risks, yet helps you think about them. In combination with the book by the same author 'Project risk management' is where the power of this book lies. If used together there are tools for manageing risks in projects.

If there is any critisism of this book and its relative, it is that they are only really practical to large projects due to the effort required to implement its management process.

However professionals in risk management will find that it is a very useful source of reference without being an overly academic book. This book is easy to read, unlike some other books on risk management.

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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Constructive simplicity is a great approach that should be used more often, 27 Feb 2008
By Matthew Leitch (Epsom, Surrey, England) - See all my reviews
This is one of my favourite books on understanding and managing risk and uncertainty and 'constructive simplicity' is the idea that makes it such an important contribution.

The process is iterative. You start with a very, very simple quantitive model (your choice to suit the situation) but make sure it explicitly includes uncertainty. You then use that model to help identify the areas of uncertainty that most need better understanding and refine your model accordingly at the next iteration.

You don't have to have a big project to benefit from this. Small projects benefit too, and the constructive simplicity approach helps you stop modelling at the right level of sophistication, depending on the project and your skills.

I think this is one of the best ideas yet for encouraging people to use explicit models to manage risk because it emphasizes starting in an easy way.

The book illustrates 'constructive simplicity' in a variety of situations, not all of them projects.

The illustrations are long and can be hard going at times. However, when I have dug into them I have usually found clever ideas that I can use.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Owning this book should be a constructively simple decision , 30 Nov 2008
By M. HOPKINSON (Hampshire, England) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   
Out of all the books on my project risk management shelf, this is the one that I turn to most. Each chapter uses a real-life worked example to illustrate how different risk management techniques can be chosen and applied according the the key questions that need to be addressed by the project concerned. In doing so, the book provides a welcome antidote to a a number of sources of standard guidance that can be interpreted as suggesting that a simplistic uniform approach (e.g. risk analysis based on a probability-impact matrix) can be applied to all projects.

The book's core theme is that you need to start by understanding what drives risk and uncertainty at a high level rather that diving it at the detail. Hence the idea of starting with a constructively simple model. Some of the many benefits of this approach include:

1. Making sure that all fundamentally important sources of uncertainty are included in the process.
2. Being able to operate an effective risk management process during the earliest (strategic planning) stages of a project.
3. Making rapid early progress by avoiding getting bogged down in detail.
4. Being able to respond to different risk-related decisions with appropriate techniques.
5. Being able to develop rational quantitative models by building up detail in a top-down iterative fashion.

The principle of developing a progressively more detailed risk management approach on projects by using a multi-pass process is recommended in the Association for Project Management (APM) PRAM Guide (2nd Issue 2004). This book provides multiple examples of what this can mean in practice.

Highly recommended to anyone who is serious about project risk management.
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