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The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations (Paperback)

by Dietrich Dorner (Author) "Tanaland is a region in West Africa (see fig. 1) ..." (more)

4.6 out of 5 stars See all reviews (7 customer reviews)

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Product details

Paperback: 240 pages
Publisher: Perseus Books; New edition edition (14 Jul 1997)
Language English
ISBN-10: 0201479486
ISBN-13: 978-0201479485
Product Dimensions: 23 x 15.4 x 2.6 cm

Average Customer Review: 4.6 out of 5 stars See all reviews (7 customer reviews)

Amazon.co.uk Sales Rank: 208,657 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Popular in these categories:

#11 in	Books > Science & Nature > Mathematics > Calculus & Mathematical Analysis > Complex Analysis
#11 in	Books > Scientific, Technical & Medical > Mathematics > Calculus & Mathematical Analysis > Complex Analysis

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Product Description

An incisive analysis of real-life situations that helps all those involved in any kind of strategic planning recognize and avoid logical yet devastating errors.. Why do we make mistakes? Are there certain errors common to failure, whether in a complex enterprise or daily life? In this truly indispensable book, Dietrich Drner identifies what he calls the logic of failurecertain tendencies in our patterns of thought that, while appropriate to an older, simpler world, prove disastrous for the complex world we live in now. Working with imaginative and often hilarious computer simulations, he analyzes the roots of catastrophe, showing city planners in the very act of creating gridlock and disaster, or public health authorities setting the scene for starvation. The Logic of Failure is a compass for intelligent planning and decision-making that can sharpen the skills of managers, policymakers and everyone involved in the daily challenge of getting from point A to point B.

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First Sentence
Tanaland is a region in West Africa (see fig. 1). Read the first page

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Customer Reviews

7 Reviews

5 star:		(4)
4 star:		(3)
3 star:		(0)
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4.6 out of 5 stars (7 customer reviews)

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10 of 10 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Helped my understanding of why big things fail, 17 Jan 2001

By A Customer

"if we look at the individual elements of behavoir that ultimately produced the accident at Chernobyl, we cannot find a single example of failure". A sobering line from the fist chapter.

The book contrasts good decision making processes with bad ones, using just a few real life examples and a lot of studies. There are some best practice patterns that can be drawn out from it, but it leaves you to apply serious thought if you want to use the lessons in a "traditional" project plan, for example.

You will have to add your own industry experience to get real value out of it: I'm interested in how it can be applied to the software engineering - after reading this its made me more interested in good feedback loops and early trend monitoring during project management. Paradoxically, I am also more wary of "analysis paralysis"! I think it would make a great definitive handbook if it could be translated to real technology programmes, where there is often a strategy plan and a "traditional" technology plan running together, plus an issue/risk management plan.

Other readers might think about applying it to public policy (or, alternatively, how a politicians dogma can overcome inconvenient facts. You can probably think of a dozen examples easily - then wonder how western democracies manage their economies so successfully given the opportunities for mistakes)

Regarding the book's style, although it is a seamless translation, I wish that some of the wording was better chosen - for example, using "ballistic" instead of "linear", & "intransparent" for "opaque" - or do these new words have a special meaning that I've missed? And although it mentions the value in diagramming time-dependent systems, it doesn't have any good examples or concrete references to proven methods.

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5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars One just wonders how often we can make *such* mistakes, 2 Nov 1998

By A Customer

This book influenced me a great way. I became aware of things I never was able to explain. I got an idea of how to manage complex systems. It helps when you agree because of great examples that "problems around us are complex, otherwise they would have been solved."

The graphic data and their analysis is very accurate.

One of the greatest chapters in the book is about time measurement. Never did I understand before reading that in general, people cannot manage time, they don't feel it. We measure it by looking at watch, we make charts, we write histories and mark milestones just because our mind is "current". It is a fascinating book to read. The somewhat academic style is very appropriate. I very strongly recommend it, especially for beginners in business, like me.

With best regards, OLEG.

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2 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars This book is a must for every business manager!, 22 Oct 1998

By A Customer

D�rner's book must be considered a very unique work insofar as he has investigated the behaviour and the decision making of people in a number of complex, intransparent, dynamic, and non-linear reality domains. His basic thesis is that humans are obviously not very well equipped for managing these complex structures. This is an exciting hypothesis (and an even more exciting proof) since most business situations are comparable to the experimental settings in thier structure. Doerner gives a lot of examples and recommendations how to overcome the various restrictions of the human system.

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Most Recent Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 stars This is a book that matters
If all politicians, planners, economists, etc. would read this book, understand it, and take it seriously, we would have a different kind of world. Read more

Published on 29 Aug 1998

5.0 out of 5 stars Why thinking in circle may get you ahead
The Logic of Failure:

Why Things Go Wrong and What We Can Do to Make Them Right

Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations

by Dietrich D�rner

This... Read more

Published on 21 Aug 1998

4.0 out of 5 stars tantalizing taste of how real people think about problems
This is a fairly quick read. Some experiments with simulation participants sheds a revealing light on the diversity of responses real people make to fairly straight forward... Read more

Published on 2 April 1998

4.0 out of 5 stars Pleasant introduction to the psychology of decisions
Let's admit it: it is fun to look at other people's mistakes - especially when they happen in inconsequential computer simulations. Read more

Published on 18 Sep 1997

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