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Winning on Wall Street Paperback – 1 Jun 1997


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Product details

  • Paperback: 304 pages
  • Publisher: Time Warner International; 4th edition edition (1 Jun. 1997)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0446672815
  • ISBN-13: 978-0446672818
  • Product Dimensions: 13.3 x 2 x 20.3 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 3.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 512,213 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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If you are looking for a simple, reliable, and workable system for playing-and beating-the stock market, this book was written for you. Read the first page
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful By A Customer on 27 July 1998
Format: Paperback
I enjoyed this book because Zweig takes you step by step through the development of his models. He discusses why each factor is important and how it contributes to performance. The model continues to work twelve years after he published the first edition. The section on stock selection is not great. I think other books provide more detail and evidence. But the heart of the book is about identifying trends. For that part, Zweig deserves five stars.
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3 of 4 people found the following review helpful By A Customer on 22 Feb. 2006
Format: Paperback
I've been using Zweig's stock screening ideas for a short while and have found them to ge great GARP style selection helpers. I got my introduction to them via investment publications explaining how they work.
So, I bought this book to get first hand tips from the man himself. Sadly, the book spends too much time on himself and even though the general ideas can be used anywhere, they are best utilised in the US stock markets.
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Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
Some nuggets of wisdom and worth buying for that. Luckily, the author was very successful with his trading as he'd never win prizes for his literature!
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2 of 5 people found the following review helpful By A Customer on 25 Sept. 1998
Format: Paperback
The book is good. Not for Every Investor but may be for Every American Investor which is actually stated in the title. Certainly some parts can add real value to ones investing strategy somewhere else in the world. Sticking to the rules laid out in the book you will perform better than others during bull markets (but not necessarily outperform) and what is important you'll outperform during bear markets. I found the most valuable the chapter about market centiment and croud psycology. Anyway the book is not a waste of time at all
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews on Amazon.com (beta)

Amazon.com: 55 reviews
70 of 71 people found the following review helpful
The book that started it all for me 16 Dec. 2001
By Tony Ursillo - Published on Amazon.com
Format: Paperback
Winning on Wall Street is the first book I ever read about investing (back in 1990). Marty Zweig may not be the most glamorous or charismatic guru, but his disciplined and unemotional approach to the markets is what makes him my most revered market player. Famous for calling the 1987 crash (forever captured on the archives of Wall Street Week), Zweig has receded from public view considerably. He discontinued his valuable Zweig Market Letter about 5 years ago and ever since Rukeyser disbanded his elves, Marty rarely shows up on the show. So, this is your best opportunity to tap the mind of an investor whose success has lasted for decades.
Admittedly, Zweig's writing style is fairly academic (he's a PhD). The book is different from many in that much of it works to set forth a model which will allow you to be on the right side of the general market for its major moves. When you boil it down, the primary influences on the model are interest rates, and measuring the underlying strength of the averages. I can now attest firsthand to the durability of this model - I have been dutifully running it myself since 1990 and it has performed admirably. Major BUY signals came in 12/90, 1/96, and 1/01. SELL signals came in 5/94 and 9/99. Again, those were not perfect bottoms and tops, but allowed you to participate in the major upmoves and avoid significant stretches of downward activity. Other useful discussions include those on sentiment and seasonal indicators. The fundamental portion of the book leaves something to be desired - stock picking is not Zweig's strong suit. By the way, opinions suggesting that Zweig is a speculator are off the mark. In fact, his approach is designed to 1) minimize risk, and 2) catch the majority (middle portion) of a market move. (...) Winning on Wall Street has become one of my best reference tools. If you are serious about building your understanding of the markets and improving your investment results, this is a book that you must own.
81 of 91 people found the following review helpful
Dangerous 28 Jun. 2006
By John Kole - Published on Amazon.com
Format: Paperback
Zweig made his reputation as a market timer, and 2/3 of this book presents a detailed market timing model that incorporates both "money indicators" (e.g. prime rate, fed funds rate, consumer debt) and a basic momentum indicator. The model is relatively simple and the method is clearly explained. According to Zweig's data, the system produced remarkable results up through the final revision of this book (in 1996).

But, of course, you have to wonder... The book has been revised four times since its initial publication in 1986...and yet not a single revision in the past ten years. Hmmmm...wonder why?

Unfortunately, the obvious answer is the correct one. Zweig's "Super Model", which he touts as "The Only Investment Model You Will Ever Need" (yes, that's an actual chapter title), utterly failed after 1996. Some other reviewers claim to have followed the model successfully since the last edition of the book. I don't know what numbers they're working with, but I've done the very tedious work to recreate the signals the model would have given since 1996, using only actual data available as of the date it became available, following Zweig's methodology precisely, and applying it to the Value Line Arithmetic Index (a very close substitute for the proprietary benchmark he uses in the book). From March 1996 (the last data point in the book) through June 28, 2006, the Value Line Index produced a gain of 222.8% (buy & hold, excluding dividends). Following the Zweig "Super Model" long-only generated a gain of 95.5% (not including interest income while in cash), and following the model long/short produced a gain of only 18.4% (yes, that's total, not annualized...). So much for the "Super Model".

As for Zweig's stock picking method, it's a pretty straightforward approach blending GARP and momentum and is very capably summarized on AAII's excellent web site. Save yourself the time and money and just go there if you want a starting point for stock screening ideas.
31 of 33 people found the following review helpful
a classic text on how markets work 24 Aug. 2000
By David P. Wester - Published on Amazon.com
Format: Paperback
A basic work that every investor should read. The best source for simple explanations of the mechinisms that drive bull and bear markets. "Outdated and misleading" says one reviewer who did not find it applicable for trading the .com mania in Feb 2000, but why that market crashed a month after the review was written can be found in Mr. Zweig's work. The fact is the theories and applications found in this book have correctly called every major market move since the mid 1980's. You can find books that can help you make more money during bull markets, but if you want to KEEP the money you make this is the best place to start.
24 of 26 people found the following review helpful
I almost hate to share 21 Feb. 2006
By Amazon Customer - Published on Amazon.com
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
I almost hate to tell you how good this book is, for fear that Zweig's Stock Screen will quit working for me if too many people know about it. I read the book, and in early 2005 I started using Zweig's stock screen (US stock market). The S&P500 made less than 5% in 2005, but I made 36% in 2005 on my portfolio using Zweig's screen! Here's how I did it.

First, I got an account at Scottrade, where each trade costs only $7. Then I joined the American Association of Individual Investors, which sells a computer program called "Stock Investor Pro". Stock Investor Pro has Zweig's screen (and a bunch of others) already programmed in, and you can download fresh stock data each week. Each week, somewhere between 10 and 25 stocks pass the screen. I base my buy/sell decisions on those results.

AAII also independently rates all those stock screens, and the long term perfomance of the Zweig screen topped all the others for cumulative gain from 1998 through 2005. In any given year, another screen may top Zweig's performance, but his screen is the overall winner by far. Even during the tech bubble collapse of 2000, Zweig's annual return was positive. It's annualized rate of return was over 40% over that 8 year period. That's an ANNUALIZED rate of return, not the cumulative rate of return. Don't believe those people who tell you that you can't do better than the S&P500 over the long term because the market is "efficient". I don't know what they're smoking, but it can't be too healthy.
18 of 19 people found the following review helpful
Recent performance of Zweig strategy 29 Nov. 2009
By Frederik Vanhaverbeke - Published on Amazon.com
Format: Paperback
To avoid confusion about whether or not the Zweig method has been rewarding over the past decade (one reviewer says it has not and another says it hasn't), simply look at the two close-end funds on the New York Stock Exchange managed by Zweig based on his philosophy:
1) Zweig Fund: lost about 70% between January 2000 and now (November 2009)
2) Zweig Total Return Fund: lost about 40% between January 2000 and November 2009

If you know that the S&P with dividends included lost about 13% over the period, we can only conclude that the funds substantially underperformed the market averages. Even worse, over the 20 years ending in December 2009, the average annual return of the Zweig Total Return Fund including dividends was only 5.6% - way below the return of the S&P. This is not what one should expect of "the only system you should ever need," and probably explains why Zweig's investment letter has silently disappeared through the back door (as mentioned by another reviewer).

The big flaw in his method, as far as I can tell, is that he used a timeframe that was way too small to make meaningful conclusions. For instance, the idea that interest rates are a driver behind stock markets (which was also proclaimed by Kenneth Fisher, who, by the way, also was taken completely aback by the bear market of 2007-2008) is based on a 50 year period up until 2005 or so. But anyone who would take the trouble to look beyond that time frame, would have seen that the relationship between stock markets and interest rates falls apart before 1950. So why trust on such an indicator?
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