What Next?: Surviving the Twenty-first Century [Paperback]

In his latest book Chris Patten provides a humane perspective on some of the horrors that the World faces in modern times from proliferation of nuclear and other arms, crime, drugs, disease and bank managers. The blurb on the jacket of the paperback version includes the usual undiluted praise, mainly from prestigious British sources, with one acerbic comment from Simon Robinson of Time magazine that describes it with some accuracy as 'part history part opinionated guidebook', to which he could have added 'part compendium of interesting facts.' However Patten's opinions are worth reading. He is an unusual politician in that he does not have a monumental ego and is willing to recognise the achievements of his political adversaries. He has also been in the centre of world affairs for many years and has met and knows some of its key players. The changing times in which we live are reflected in the six people he names 'who have tried to improve the world', two are of Portuguese origin, one Chinese, one Arab and only one American. This is a very different world since the last major resetting of human affairs after WW 2 with Bretton Woods and the U.N. - dominated at that time by the U.S. It would have been interesting to hear more from Patten on the decline of American power and the new multipolar world and its consequences both good and bad. In fact it is the deeper level of insight and understanding that will answer the question 'what next?' that is missing from this book.

Patten has a cool logical approach but his personal bias shows through from time to time. A nuclear-armed Iran is obviously not good but it seems a little one-eyed to warn of its potential threat to security in the Middle East when Israel, that many Arabs would regard as substantially more threatening than Iran, is armed to the teeth with rockets and nuclear warheads. The decline in populations of ethnic Europeans throughout the world is presented as a problem when in fact the best hope for a less polluted and better world with adequate resources for all is when world population starts to decline. The spread of AIDS in Africa combined with rapid increase in human population guarantees disasters in the future even worse than we have today. Both of these problems, overpopulation and AIDS will be improved by wider use of condoms - a solution which Patten, understandably because of his personal religious beliefs, does not advocate.

The density of information is enormous and detailed which together with the changes of style and contradictions in facts suggest that research assistants and Google played a large part in its preparation. Much of the numerical data should have been presented as graphs and tables in appendices with attributions which are almost entirely missing. Technical subjects are generally presented in such simple terms as to be misleading. Oil will not be pumped until finally the last barrel is shipped off to be refined. As oil prices increase new conventional, oil sand and oil shale reserves increase exponentially. The same applies to all natural resources. Malthus was wrong. Metals and mineral fuels are virtually limitless - at a cost, both financial and environmental. Patten says that countries reliant on natural resource exports are prone to civil war. Oh? Canada, Russia, Australia, Chile, Brazil and Norway are very large suppliers of natural resources to the world though I think the chances of blood in the streets of Melbourne or Oslo rather far-fetched and Russia's last civil war was quite a long time ago. I think Patten (or his assistant) has in mind Sierra Leone, Angola and DRC - countries that are small players among the global natural resource economies.

In short this is a book from a unique perspective with many interesting insights and stories but which wanders into areas that the author and his assistants have no knowledge or understanding which is a shame because Chris Patten is one of the good guys.

Chris Patten identifies a number of problems and issues facing the world, and has a surprisingly liberal (with a small l) view for a Conservative politician. His insights are scattered with personal insights and recollections from his time as a politician, governer of Hong Kong and EU commissioner. As an insider he is clear that the problems facing the world are known and understood at the highest levels - it is just the implementation of corrective actions that is not agreed. As a Labour Party member I was surprised at how much he wrote was in agreement with my perceptions.

I am a great fan of Chris Patten and much enjoyed "Not quite the diplomat". This book does not match it. The puzzle is: why?

It was a good concept to review the challenges facing our world. The issues covered include: climate; crime; drugs; energy; epidemics; food; free trade; globalisation; migration; water; and weapons. What is more, there are many interesting and useful facts about each. In fact at times it is like reading an encyclopaedia but without the ability to easily return to the facts.

I think the problem lies in poor structure and excessive length. At 448 main pages it could have been 200 fewer and the better for it.

It is a stimulating read but harder going than it need be. Maybe it is because I read it sandwiched between two much better books (Descent into Chaos and Bottom Billion) that I reluctantly only award it 3 stars.