Product Description
Toll roads, bridges and tunnels represent the most popular class of infrastructure attracting international private finance today. Many deals, however, expose financiers, insurers and other project counterparties to demand risk. This moves traffic and revenue forecasts centre-stage in terms of being able to understand and test the investment proposition - yet the forecasting process itself often remains a mystery. Additionally, there are frequent concerns about predictive reliability. Written specifically for credit analysts, investors and other professionals whose primary expertise lies outside transportation, this book lifts the lid on the 'black box' of traffic and revenue forecasting. The author, Robert Bain (ex-S&P and a civil engineer with 20+ years of forecasting experience) has prepared a straightforward guide which highlights key issues to watch for and suggests ways in which the forecasts can be analysed to improve transparency and investor understanding.
About the Author
Robert Bain is a Chartered Civil Engineer. He was a traffic and revenue consultant for 15 years, conducting international toll road feasibility studies for private sector investors and public sector promoters. More recently he moved into financial services and was employed as a credit analyst with Standard & Poor's, working in the agency's Infrastructure Finance Ratings practice for five years. As a Director in the London-based transportation team he was responsible for credits in the road, rail, airport and bus sectors. Robert's portfolio covered corporate issuers and structured finance transactions - typically project finance deals and securitisations.
Robert holds a PhD from the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds. He is a Fellow of the Institution of Highways and Transportation and a Fellow of the Institution of Civil Engineers. He is currently retained by Standard & Poor's on a freelance basis and runs his own specialist consultancy providing technical support services to institutional investors, insurance companies and infrastructure funds.