A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World [Paperback]

Tertzakian and his book stand as a rare find: a work on a timely topic often argued with little information, written by a man with great expertise in a plain and understandable style. His thesis is sobering. The world currently approaches a tipping point, where growth of demand so out paces growth of supply that a paradigm shift becomes the only way to move forward. Tertzakian offers examples of other such shifts, though none appear as deep as a post fossil fuel age -- whale oil may have stood as a primary lighting source, but it was hardly the basis for the entire economy when demand began outstripping supply.

While some may complain about certain of the works shortcomings, such as its failure to consider climate change, Tertzakian's work stands as primarily an economic text as well as a primer on this key industry. His choice to focus his book, far from a flaw, inures to his credit.

Further to his credit, this author does not pretend that any magic bullet will deal with the situation, nor does he claim to have a crystal ball and map out the future. Instead, he offers a fine primer from which to begin a crucial conversation. For this alone, he has great credit. All of us would do well to read this fine work.

This is the fourth book I have read in the last several weeks since I first became alerted to the peak oil issue.

The others being:

Beyond Oil (Deffeyes)

The Long Emergency (Kuntzler)

The Coming Economic Collapse (Leeb)

One excellent feature of Tertzakian's book is his presentation of the history of the prevailing forms of energy that have been used in human history (whale oil, etc). This is a basis for his "break point" theory, which I'm not sure I absorbed all that fully but involves the process by which the human race switches to new source(s) of energy when the dominant existing source is no longer tenable.

He mentiones the debate regarding "Hubbert's Peak", the hypothesis that we are reaching the peak of oil production in the current century.

At one point he states it as a debate, but I have seen no fundamental disagreement on the issue. There seems to be a widespread agreement that oil, under the narrow definition as the light sweet crude we pump out of the ground, will reach a production peak in this century.

There are, of course, the other large potential sources of oil- coal gasification, Oil Sands, and Oil Shale. These exist in large quantities and if oil were produced in large quantities from these sources, the bell curve for global oil production would likely peak at a considerably later date.

But Deffeyes, who seems to be the most prominent advocate of the Hubbert's Peak theory, makes clear that he is referring to conventional oil production.

So I don't think there is actually any disagreement on this issue, except that there are, no doubt, some cornucopianists who would contend that there is a vast amount more recoverable oil than the Hubbert's Peak curve would claim.

Anyway, moving on from that issue: Tertzakian concludes by painting a possible picture of what the energy future will be 10 or so years from now.

He clearly is relatively optimistic, which is perhaps one reason his book has received a lot of praise from prominent people.

But behind his generally upbeat tone, he is quite forthright in stating that he believes that part of the "rebalancing" process will be some major changes in lifestyle. So he clearly cannot be faulted for holding a "don't worry be happy" outlook regarding the challenges in dealing with peak oil.

Even so, I believe the "rebalancing" is likely to play out quite a bit differently than he envisions. There are a couple of issues I don't think he has given due weight to. First of all, in terms of the nature of the energy sources:

Previous rebalancings, such as that of the 1970s, have primarily involved shifts between different types of fossil fuels. Perhaps the coming one will as well. With the huge resources of the "more difficult" sources of oil, the world could perhaps continue with an energy economy pretty much the way it is now for another century or so.

Eventually, those sources will run out and we will need to switch over to renewables. (although nuclear fusion is a wild card- if it's ready by the time we have exhausted all the various forms of fossil fuels then that may pretty much resolve the energy issue once and for all.

Assuming that we do need to go to renewables, either in the near term (next 10-20 years), or after exhausting the other forms of fossil fuels (80-100 years from now), there will be I think a much bigger disruption to society than what Tertzakian is describing.

One part of the solution he envisions is more economical automobiles and industrial processes. I believe that will help greatly in us being able to deal with the next 20-30 years.

But eventually, once ALL the fossil fuel sources have been depleted, and once MOST of the potential efficiency gains have been squeezed out of the processes that use fossil fuels, we are liable to face a big problem in figuring out how to, for example, continue to produce large quantities of food without heavy use of fossil fuels.

In summary, our course for the future looks very unclear; I clearly am very conflicted on what it might look like. I'm not sure much of what Tertzakian envisions will prove to be very accurate, but then he does seem to acknowledge that he is just throwing out ideas and that the future is liable to be considerably different than any of us can currently project.

It feels appropriate to review this book as crude oil futures hit all-time contract highs... The 1980 inflation-adjusted highs for crude (roughly $100 per barrel in today's money) are just around the corner in geopolitical terms.

In the book's title, "A Thousand Barrels a Second" refers to the point at which world oil demand exceeds 86 million barrels per day. (86.4 to be exact--there are 86,400 seconds in one day). The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes the 86 million threshold could be crossed this year.

The "Coming Oil Break Point" refers to the aftermath of crisis and inevitable forced change. Tertzakian explains:

"...the history of energy shows that a time of crisis is always followed by a defining break point, after which government policies, and social and technological forces, begin to rebalance the structure of the world's vast energy complex. Break points are crucial junctures marked by dramatic changes in the way energy is used."

During the break point and the rebalancing phase that follows (which can last for 10 to 20 years), nations struggle for answers, consumers suffer and complain, the economy adapts, and science surges with innovation and discovery. In the era that emerges, lifestyles change, businesses are born, and fortunes are made.

I read the entire book on one leg of a coast-to-coast plane trip, a feat made possible by the clarity and lucidity of Tertzakian's writing. He excels at laying out detailed concepts in ways that are easy for the reader to grasp and understand, and paints a convincing picture of the significant challenges we face.

Tertzakian firmly grounds his argument in history, explaining what he calls the "evolutionary energy cycle" through the lens of past transitions. At one point we journeyed to the ends of the earth for whale oil, just as we do for "rock oil" (the literal meaning of petroleum) today. In the switch from wood to coal, tallow to whale oil, whale oil to kerosene, and so on, predictable aspects of the evolutionary energy cycle begin to emerge.

In addition to outlining the situation we're in, Tertzakian gives a fascinating, though brief, history of the oil industry. He covers the rise of Rockefeller's Standard Oil, its eventual breakup, the curious origins of Saudi Aramco, the British Navy's fateful switch from coal to oil, energy's role in respect to railroads and WWII, and more.

In my opinion, Tertzakian can be classified as an Urgent Simonist.* The word "Urgent" is meant to distinguish from the "Pollyanna" Simonists--those who believe technology will magically solve our energy problems with no real pain or discomfort.

On the emotional subject of peak oil, there are two extremes of debate. At one end you have those who think civilization is doomed no matter what (the viewpoint of cheery websites like dieoff.org). At the other end, you have those who think peak oil will be shaken off like a mild head cold.

Tertzakian helps bridge the gap between these extremes by explaining that yes, the challenge is serious, and gut-wrenching times are ahead... but we will ultimately see our way through. He is "urgent" in pointing out that the sooner we act the better, and pulls no punches in terms of what's at stake.

Perhaps the real power of "A Thousand Barrels A Second" is in showing readers how to think about the big picture, orienting them to the mind-boggling mechanics of energy supply chains.

There are so many steps and processes involved in the discovery, extraction, and distribution of energy that supply chains generally evolve at a glacial pace. Major energy transitions are measured in decades, not years; the scale and scope of the task is breathtaking to behold. Without taking a closer look behind the scenes, it's hard to get an intuitive sense of the time frames and logistical complexities involved. Tertzakian helps readers do that.

In sum, if you truly want to understand the energy issues we face--or at least get a handle on the key elements--I strongly recommend this book. It could also make an excellent gift for those friends and colleagues locked in one of the "extreme" camps, i.e. "what me worry" vs. "we're all going to die." (The book might not change their mind, but it will certainly make them think.)

I too consider myself an Urgent Simonist--we'll make it through, but only with serious pain--and believe that Tertzakian succeeds in his goal of providing "a highly researched and balanced assessment of our energy situation."

*Julian Simon, an influential economist, wrote a book in 1981 called The Ultimate Resource, in which he argued that technology and human ingenuity would always ensure an abundance of raw materials. In 1980, he also made a famous wager that a basket of base metals would fall in price, rather than rise, over a significant period of time. He won the bet. Ever since, those who believe in the power of innovation to overcome doomsday scarcity predictions have been dubbed "Simonists."