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This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly [Hardcover]

Carmen M. Reinhart , Kenneth Rogoff
3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (35 customer reviews)
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Book Description

1 Oct 2009

Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned.

Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts--as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur.

An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps.

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Product details

  • Hardcover: 512 pages
  • Publisher: Princeton University Press; 1St Edition edition (1 Oct 2009)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0691142165
  • ISBN-13: 978-0691142166
  • Product Dimensions: 4.2 x 16.7 x 24.1 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (35 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 180,321 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
  • See Complete Table of Contents

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  • Winner of the 2011 Gold Medal Arthur Ross Book Award, Council on Foreign Relations

  • Winner of the 2010 Paul A. Samuelson Award, TIAA-CREF

  • One of USA Today's "Year's Best Business Books To Make Sense of Financial Crisis"

  • Listed on by James Pressley as one of "our favorite financial-crisis books this year"

  • Shortlisted for the 2010 Spear's Book of the Year Award in Financial History

  • Finalist for the 2011 Estoril Global Issues Distinguished Book Prize

  • Runner-Up for the Book of the Year, The Atlantic

  • Finalist for the 2009 Business Book Award ("Best of the Rest") in Current Interest, 800-CEO-READ

  • One of Library Journal Best Business Books - Economics/U.S. Economy category

"[E]ssential reading . . . both for its originality and for the sobering patterns of financial behaviour it reveals."--Economist

"Reinhart and Rogoff have compiled an impressive database, which covers eight centuries of government debt defaults from around the world. They have also collected statistics on inflation rates from every country where information is available and on banking crises and international capital flows over the past couple of centuries. This lengthy historical study gives what they call a 'panoramic view' of the unending cycle of boom and bust, showing how claims that 'this time is different' are invariably proven wrong. . . . This Time Is Different doesn't simply explain what went wrong in our most recent crisis. This book also provides a roadmap of how things are likely to pan out in the years to come. . . . This Time Is Different is an important addition to the literature of financial history."--Edward Chancellor, Wall Street Journal

"Everyonwe working on economic policy should own This Time is Different and open it for a bracing blast of sobriety when things seem to be going well."--Greg Ip, Washington Post

"[A] terrific book."--Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times

"The authors use copious amounts of data . . . to make the compelling case that any well-informed person should have seen the Great Recession coming. The essence of their book is that while financial crises come in different varieties, they are not mysteriously born of undersea earthquakes, but frequently occurring events that can be spotted and even controlled if politicians and regulators know what to look for."--Devin Leonard, New York Times

"[T]he most comprehensive study of financial crises and their aftermath . . ."--Eduardo Porter, New York Times

"This Time is Different takes a Sergeant Friday, just-the-facts-ma'am approach: before we start theorizing, let's take a hard look at what history tells us. One side benefit of this approach is that the current book manages to be both extremely useful to professional economists and accessible to the intelligent lay reader. The Reinhart-Rogoff approach has already paid off handsomely in making sense of current events."--Robin Wells and Paul Krugman, New York Review of Books

"Among policy experts and economists, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly . . . has become so influential that when somebody says, 'We live in a Reinhart-Rogoff world,' everybody else in the room nods sagely."--Justin Lahart, Wall Street Journal

"Professor Rogoff and his longtime collaborator Carmen Reinhart . . . know more about the history of financial crises than anyone alive. The pair have just published their broad survey of financial crises, This Time is Different. In an era when most 'analysts' rely on maybe 30 or 40 years' worth of financial history--and then only that of the U.S.--the authors' knowledge of financial crises and government bond defaults going back to the Spanish empire and before offers a richer perspective."--Brett Arends, Wall Street Journal

"[O]ne of the most important economic books of 2009."--Jon Hilsenrath, Wall Street Journal

"[T]he definitive book on financial crises."--Steven Pearlstein, Washington Post

"Two top-notch economists provide a clear and interesting explanation of why economic crises keep occurring. Broadly speaking, downturns such as the one we are recovering from are historically associated with characteristics that should sound quite familiar to today's investors."--David Schwartz, Financial Times

"[A] masterpiece."--Martin Wolf, Financial Times

"The four most dangerous words in finance are 'this time is different.' Thanks to this masterpiece by Carmen Reinhart at the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard, no one can doubt this again. . . . The authors have put an immense amount of work into collecting the data financial institutions needed if they were to have any chance of making quantitative risk management work."--Martin Wolf, Financial Times

"Here's a deep and rewarding assignment for all of you, young and old, poor and rich, bullish and bearish. Retire to a quiet spot with a copy of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff."--Bob Lenzner,

"[A] fine new history of financial debacles."--Daniel Gross, Newsweek

"Wouldn't it be nice to have $1,000 for every time a pundit proclaims an era of endless prosperity, consigning booms and busts to the dumpster of history? The next time you hear that canard (and you will) pour yourself a single malt and dip into Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff's landmark study, This Time Is Different. Wherever you open the book, you'll find proof that debt-fueled expansions have ended in financial ruin for hundreds of years. . . . The result is a visual history laid out in beguilingly simple graphs and tables, making the book both definitive--a must read for professors and investors--and accessible to a wider audience."--James Pressley, Bloomberg News

"Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have delivered a powerful and eloquent statement. . . . Reinhart and Rogoff have done an extraordinary job in putting together statistics on government debt--a task that economic historians should have done long ago but shied away from because of the difficulties of defining 'government', which is often complex and multi-layered."--Harold James, The American Interest

"Unlike prior narrative accounts of market panics from such finance writers as Charles Kindleberger and Edward Chancellor, Reinhart and Rogoff give us a data-driven study that is global in sweep but also a model of clarity. The authors package their notably nonhysterical analysis of the latest crisis in a large, self-contained section of the book inviting harried readers to skip right ahead to it."--Daniel Akst,

"A tour de force of quantitative analysis covering financial crises affecting 66 countries over the past 800 years, the book identifies pre-crisis patterns that recur with eerie consistency. This Time is Different is a must-read for anyone on the lookout for canaries in coal mines."--Barron's

"This is certainly one of the must-read books of the year."--Arnold Kling,

"Rogoff and Reinhart . . . provide an eye-opening look at the cycles of boom and bust and how governments deal with those cycles."--Arkansas Business

"[A] valuable new book."--Idaho Statesman

"Having studied mountains of economic data during the past eight centuries, the authors insightfully point out the highly repetitive nature of financial crises resulted from a dangerous mix of hubris, euphoria and amnesia."--Shanghai Daily

"This Time is Different . . . is an unusually powerful bull detector designed to protect investors and taxpayers alike--eventually, at least, and provided the spirit is willing. . . . The book's most memorable passages--what the authors call its 'core life'--are to be found not in colorful stories about long-ago personalities, but rather in its various tables and figures. They take some time to comprehend, but any responsible citizen can and ought to consider they evidence they present. It is overwhelming."--David Warsh, Harvard Magazine

"Financial folly, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff show in this groundbreaking book, knows no boundaries and has no expiration date. . . . For a book built around numbers, This Time is Different makes for surprisingly good reading. The authors are well aware that human nature is at the heart of the disasters they document, and they enliven the text with brief and amusing accounts of charlatans and cheats."--Paul Wiseman, USA Today

"The credit crunch of 2007 became the financial crash of 2008 and the recession of 2009. But there has been much debate about the scale of this crisis, and how it ranks against previous events. Reinhart and Rogoff have produced the most detailed study yet of financial crises, going back as far as 12th-century China. . . . [This Time is Different] will be a vital source of reference in debates on the causes and consequences of financial crises. By cataloguing so thoroughly every known instance of financial crisis, it performs a significant service and opens up new lines of inquiry."--Andrew Gamble, New Statesman

"[T]his is the kind of economics we desperately need, as it is relevant, fact-based and replete with wisdom from the past--and lessons for the future."--Irish Times

"For those who want to relearn the forgotten lessons of the past, This Time is Different, by economics professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, is an excellent place to start. . . . These are lessons worth learning."--Liaquat Ahamed, National Interest

"This book's distinctive strength is that it's built around a massive international database going back as far as twelfth-century China and medieval Europe."--Harvard Business Review

"[S]uperb."--Neil Reynolds, Globe & Mail

"Reinhart and Rogoff have compiled an encyclopedic analysis of the history of financial crises over the last 750 years. But their volume is not merely of historical interest. Rather, it has great relevance for anyone interested in understanding how the current financial crisis is likely to unfold."--Choice

"Reinhart and Rogoff present a sobering reminder that financial crises are a serial phenomenon--caused in no small part by the seductive 'this-time-is-different syndrome,' the prevalent belief that to us, here and now, old economic laws of motion no longer apply. Their ambitious quantitative history of financial crises draws out sweeping parallels between financial crises, across times and continents; and between inflating away domestic debt, currency debasements, and defaults on external debt."--Finance & Development

"[I]nstant classic tome on debt crises."--Alen Mattich, Dow Jones Newswires

"[A]wesome."--William Easterly, AidWatch

"One book in particular has been circulating among economists and market insiders. This Time is Different analyzes vast amounts of historical data on financial debacles, including state failures around the world, bank crises, currency woes and high inflation. The title satirizes those who fail to learn from past blunders and repeat them while insisting, 'This time is different.'"--Hideo Tsuchiya, Nikkei Weekly

"Reinhart and Rogoff have produced a splendid book detailing the massive self-destructive behavior that all states have been undergoing over the past several centuries. . . . Reading this excellent book on the paths of previous economic cycles could help avoid some of the worst results of our self-destructive financial acts."--Lloyd Demause, Journal of Psychohistory

"Anyone looking for a more academic take on where this meltdown places in the history of financial folly should turn to This Time is Different, a magisterial work on the causes and consequences of crises stretching back 800 years."--Matthew Valencia,

"I couldn't put it down until I had gone all the way through it, and then I immediately ordered it as an assigned text for my Spring 2010 MBA course, 'The Development of Financial Institutions and Markets.' My students are finding it useful and engaging."--Richard Sylla, EH.Net

"Easily the most useful, and arguably the best, is this splendid piece of research and analysis on, as the subtitle says, 800 years' worth of booms and busts."--Bill Emmott, Survival

"This Time Is Different changes the way we can study financial crises. It is the start of a truly comprehensive approach to the subject. . . . It adds new ideas that will be useful for gauging the risk of future crises and perhaps even reducing their impact, if investors and policymakers are willing to learn from other people's mistakes, not just their own mistakes."--Kurt Schuler, CATO Journal

"[T]he book will be essential reading for anyone who wants to put the recent crisis into some historical perspective--and get some ideas on how to prevent, or at least delay, the next one."--David Orrell, Foresight

"It's the only book I have seen that provides, with great detail and over 800 years, clearly defined, analytical, data-driven evidence of what the impact of a post-financial crisis period is and hence what we can anticipate. . . . I've never seen anything that comes close in terms of being comprehensive. It's a tour de force."--Dambisa Moyo, The Browser

"[T]his Time is Different [is a] landmark work on financial crises . . ."--Megan McArdle,

"Readable, shocking, and vital, this is a book that every investor who has been tempted by a hefty interest rate in a faraway land should study."--Andrew Allentuck, National Post

"[This Time is Different] is perhaps the finest study of financial crises ever published."--Ezra Klein, Washington Post

"[A] modern classic. . . . In their landmark study of hundreds of financial crises in 66 countries over 800 years, Reinhart and Rogoff find oft-repeated patterns that ought to alert economists when trouble is on the way. One thing stops them waking up in time: their perpetual belief that 'this time is different.'"--Ross Gittins, Sydney Morning Herald

"[S]eminal . . ."--Rana Faroohar and Bill Saporito, Time

"[T]he pre-eminent history of financial crises . . ."--Adam Davidson, New York Times Magazine

"The book by Reinhart and Rogoff is one for the ages, and it will be remembered as a landmark event, not least given the coincidence of its publication of such a deep and broad historical analysis of economic crises with the very moment when the world was entering a massive 'hundred year flood' type of calamity. The authors' empirical work is encyclopedic and much of the data are highly original and the result of intense effort. The necessary theoretical framing is provided, but in terms that all target readers should be able to absorb. The overall view is panoramic and the message carried is an important one for all to hear--policymakers, commentators, and researchers. Crises are still with us, they are very painful indeed, and perhaps it will always be so. It is up to us to figure out why and how crises happen, and to figure out what, if anything, can and should be done to mitigate their devastating effects in future. This book is therefore, above all, a call to action."--Journal of Economic Literature

"[E]conomists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff take a much-needed longer view, placing the current crisis, with a focus on the U.S. housing bubble, into historical perspective."--Anil Hira, Perspectives on Politics

From the Inside Flap

"This Time Is Different is a tremendously exciting, topical, and controversial book on the history of debt and default. This one belongs on everyone's shelf."--Barry Eichengreen, author of The European Economy since 1945

"This is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published. Covering hundreds of years and bringing together a dizzying array of data, Reinhart and Rogoff have made a truly heroic contribution to financial history. This single marvelous volume is worth a thousand mathematical models."--Niall Ferguson, author of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World

"This Time is Different is terrific, for it gives just the perspective we need on the current world economic crisis. People can't expect to understand the current crisis without some in-depth look at past crises. That is exactly what this excellent and timely book provides."--Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance and coauthor of Animal Spirits

"You will be hard-pressed to find a more comprehensive and insightful analysis of financial crises. Reinhart and Rogoff's superb book is a must-read for anyone looking to understand past and present crises, as well as navigate those of tomorrow."--Mohamed El-Erian, author of When Markets Collide

"I would say that her [Carmen Reinhart's] book with Ken Rogoff on debt crises and financial crises is an extraordinary piece of work."--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee (6/9/2010)

"A classic."--Nouriel Roubini

"The most important authorities probably in the world now on financial crashes are Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. . . . And I read it [This Time is Different]."--Former President Bill Clinton, speech at Youngstown, OH, October 31, 2012

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews
35 of 35 people found the following review helpful
It's a fairly dry read, though not overly technical. With the exception of the Great Depression, it doesn't drill too far into any particular prior crisis, but then if it had, it would have been 30,000 pages instead of 300.

Three types of crises are identified - external debt, domestic debt, and banking crises. Of the three, banking crises are identified to be the worst.

Common denominators leading up to banking crises include liberalization of laws, high capital mobility, and large capital inflow. We had all of those leading up to the current crisis. It furthermore points out that the effects of banking crises include a sharp reduction in tax intake, bailouts, stimulus, and large deficits - we've also had all of those.

Two things in particular that should make everyone take notice of this work - the authors find that typically, countries do NOT grow out of their debts, and since the wide-scale introduction of fiat currencies, inflation has been the weapon of choice in this fight. Since the average banking crisis lead to a debt increase of 86% - which is not out of line with what we can expect at the end of the current - and since we live in a society dominated by fiat currencies, should we expect inflation?

However, all throughout the book, I just couldn't help myself thinking that this time really IS different. With the exception of the Great Depression, not once has a crisis hit with anywhere near the kind of global impact we currently experience. And since most of the issues still persist - deficits are worse than ever, banks are still in deep trouble, and tax revenue continues to drop - I can't come to any other conclusion that this crisis will be felt for a long time to come.

Definitely worth a read.
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66 of 68 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover|Verified Purchase
The book is significant and substantial. The data collated by the authors from other sources or emanating from their own research is impressive. But the book is not simply the product of hard working and meticulous authors but also of intelligent ones. The authors are insightful and incisive. The wealth of data render tables and graphs illustrate the points made in the text with crystalline clarity. The authors certainly do not lack wit but their aim is not to entertain and create pyrotechnics but to inform, provide substance and in this way fulfill the reader in his/her gaining insight into the nature, severity, indicators and sequencing of a wide array of financial crises. The authors are meticulous and explain with professional integrity to the reader the methodologies they employ and the merits but also limitations of these methodologies;they are considerate to the reader to the point of advising which parts to skip without losing continuity. It is true that the book is rigorous and scholarly but accessible to the intelligent layman with elementary knowledge in Statistics and modest exposure to Economics vocabulary.

The authors dispel compellingly and conclusively the "this-time-is-different" syndrome. The syndrome simply stated is that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the current boom, unlike the many that preceded catastrophic collapses in the past, is built on sound fundamentals, structural reforms, technological innovation, and good policy. The book in detailing crises that have arisen over the past eight centuries exposes this myth and shows that boom-bust cycles recur with relentless regularity, a trend that is likely to continue in the future.
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33 of 34 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Sobering study of fiscal failures 17 Nov 2009
By Rolf Dobelli TOP 500 REVIEWER
Every so often, experts sucker people into bidding up the prices of stocks or real estate because they announce that the economy has fundamentally changed. As the aftermath of the real estate bubble illustrates, the basics of economics don't really change, no matter what fantasies people come to believe. Economics professors Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff present a thorough historical and statistical tour of financial hubris through the centuries, a postmortem that will make you wonder how anyone ever believed "this time is different." The staid tone, formulas, charts and somewhat confusing organization make this fascinating history challenging to absorb. Yet, the content, which sweeps ambitiously and carefully across centuries and countries, rewards the persistent reader with many insights and gems, like the nation-by-nation appendix of fiscal history low points. getAbstract recommends this analytical overview to history buffs, investors, managers and policy makers who seek perspective on "financial folly."
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6 of 6 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars A valuable contribution to the learning process 28 Feb 2012
By Steve Keen TOP 1000 REVIEWER
Format:Paperback|Verified Purchase
This, I suspect, is one of those books, like Stephen Hawking's A Brief History Of Time, which far fewer people read than own. It is not a book of popular economics, and it does not have a straightforward story line. It is, however, a book of extraordinary significance to our times, and of more immediate importance, I'd venture, than Professor Hawking's opus. This is a book that looks backwards, sideways and forwards all at the same time, examining financial crises of the past, drawing comparisons with the current crisis, and outlining some ways those of the future may be spotted on the horizon and at least alleviated. It warns particularly of the all-too-frequent tendency of developing countries to assume that times of plenty will never end and therefore to spend profligately, a tendency also seen in certain developed countries. Find the steepest point in the uptrend and extrapolate to infinity. We're rich forever!

In creating this relatively short but gigantically impressive and influential (while some possibly have not read it, many nevertheless have) work the authors have dug deep into what archives they have been able to delve. At times the charts are so numerous the text has a job keeping up. The tables, too, are frequent, informative and, often, frightening. But they underline the herculean task involved in prising the data out of some hands, and make a case for a centralised clearing house for making such data transparent, rather than the current opacity and obfuscation.

The central point, of course, is that the fundamental tenets of economics do not change. You can't spend what you'll never have and get away with it. There's a price to pay, always, as the world economy, and especially the increasingly pauperised south Europeans are now finding.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
3.0 out of 5 stars Big on data and ideas, missed at least one important angle.
Huge volume with links to a huge volume of reference material. As M Pedersen suggests it's dry as a panda's breast milk too. Read more
Published 4 months ago by Andrew Carey
3.0 out of 5 stars Detailed, yet incomplete
One of the other 3-star rating reviewers, "Virgenie", gave a review with which I would concur, if only because this book explains the financial component of the world... Read more
Published 6 months ago by D. V. Short
4.0 out of 5 stars Worth the effort
I saw this book referred to in so many articles that I knew I had to read it sooner or later. I am glad I did. Read more
Published 7 months ago by R. Bentham
5.0 out of 5 stars Lucid, thorough, essential reading for policy makers
This book investigates datasets connecting financial measures such as debt or real estate price changes to financial turmoil. Read more
Published 11 months ago by Dummyrun
3.0 out of 5 stars Disappointing
There is much information here and it avoids technical language. But is presented in most tedious manner. Read more
Published 14 months ago by Mr. Acapella
1.0 out of 5 stars Not yet arrived. It was estimated to arrive by April 5, at latest.
Not yet arrived. It was estimated to arrive by April 5, at latest.
Thus one star is the best I can give.
I hope it will arrive soon.
Published 17 months ago by André Freire
4.0 out of 5 stars Great book to read!
What we learn from history is that we don't learn anything from history!
Lots of lessons for politicians and bankers in here!
Published 17 months ago by Thomas R Muller
3.0 out of 5 stars Heavy stuff
The book is well researched and reads like an academic textbook. I finished it but did not really enjoy it. It was too self referential. Read more
Published 18 months ago by Mr. David Ramsey
3.0 out of 5 stars The Authors Should Have Read Marx ...
Their simple mistake is to believe that busts can be avoided; Marx shows why boom & bust is an inherent feature of Capitalism. We need to roll with the storm. Read more
Published 18 months ago by Andrew Heenan
5.0 out of 5 stars A must read for anybody who's brain is still alive.
A meticulously researched and referenced work this was right up my street. Wonderful graphs and tables, loads of new ground breaking data and analyses this is a truly wonderful... Read more
Published 20 months ago by Gordon Ramel
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