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Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition [Hardcover]

Michael J Mauboussin (Author)

5.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (3 customer reviews)

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Book Description

Publication Date: 1 Oct 2009 | ISBN-10: 1422176754 | ISBN-13: 978-1422176757

Leaders in all fields-business, medicine, law, government-make crucial decisions every day. The harsh truth is that they mismanage many of those choices, even though they have the right intentions. These blunders take a huge toll on leaders, their organizations, and the people they serve.

Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? We fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable.

Sharing vivid stories from business and beyond, Mauboussin offers powerful rules for avoiding each error. And he explains how to know when it's time to think twice-to question your reasoning and adopt decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive.

Master the art of thinking twice, and you'll start spotting dangerous mental errors-in your own decisions and in those of others. Equipped with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.

#outer_postBodyPS { display: none; } #psGradient { display: none; } #psPlaceHolder { display: none; } #psExpand { display: none; } Leaders in all fields-business, medicine, law, government-make crucial decisions every day. The harsh truth is that they mismanage many of those choices, even though they have the right intentions. These blunders take a huge toll on leaders, their organizations, and the people they serve.

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Product details

Hardcover: 204 pages
Publisher: Harvard Business School Press (1 Oct 2009)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1422176754
ISBN-13: 978-1422176757
Product Dimensions: 16.5 x 2 x 24.1 cm

Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (3 customer reviews)

Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 359,491 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Review

The Bottom Line: An insightful, well-researched discussion of our all-too-familiar cognitive failures. --BusinessWeek, Decemebr14, 2009

Indeed this is a book for everyone...challenging and interesting and it will prove to be invaluable as well.
--Professional Manager, January 1 2010

About the Author

Michael J. Mauboussin is Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. He has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993. BusinessWeek's Guide to the Best Business Schools (2001) highlighted Michael as one of the school's "Outstanding Faculty," a distinction received by only seven professors.

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13 of 13 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars How to upgrade your mental software and eliminate false beliefs 28 Dec 2009

By Robert Morris TOP 100 REVIEWER

Format:Hardcover

Michael Mauboussin asserts, "Smart people make poor decisions because they have the same factory settings on their mental software as the rest of us, and that software isn't designed to cope with many of today's problems...Beyond the problem of mental software, smart people make bad decisions because they harbor false beliefs." What to do? I agree with Mauboussin that the most valuable lessons in life tend to be revealed by failure that results from errors of judgment. For example, consider this familiar observation about betrayal of confidence: "First time, shame on you; second time, shame on me." To improve one's judgment, to reduce the number if one's mistakes (if not eliminate them), Mauboussin suggests a three step plan, suggested by the acronym PRA: First, Prepare by acknowledging and analyzing one's mistakes in order to understand their cause(s), nature, extent, and impact; next, to Recognize each mistake in context, to gain "situational awareness," in order to recognize the kinds of problems one faces, what the risks are, and which tools are needed to make smart decisions; finally, Apply what one has been learned in order to mitigate one's potential mistakes by building or refining a set of mental tools to cope with the realities if life."

"Many of these tips [provided in the book] involve keeping your intuition in check while using an approach that is counterintuitive." Mauboussin makes no claim to immunity from various cognitive mistakes and duly acknowledges that he still falls "for every one I describe in the book. My personal goal [one he hopes the reader will also select] is to recognize when I enter a danger zone while trying to make a decision and to slow down when I do. Finding the proper point of view at the appropriate time is critical...."

Mauboussin's core insight is that most of the worst decisions are made in haste, without sufficient information, and driven by emotion rather than by reason, and are avoidable. For example, consider mistakes associated with reversion to the mean (i.e. denying or ignoring the fact that an outcome that is not is not average will be followed by an outcome that has an expected value closer to the average). How to avoid making these mistakes? Mauboussin offers four suggestions:

1. Evaluate the mix of skill and luck in the system that you are analyzing. "Here's a simple test of whether an activity involves skill: ask if you can lose on purpose [because] if you can lose on purpose, then skill is involved."

2. Carefully consider the sample size. "The more that luck contributes to the outcomes you observe, the larger the sample you will need to distinguish between skill and luck."

3. Watch for change within the system or of the system. "One obvious example is individual changes in skill level. And athlete's age is a good example. In many professional sports, athletic skill improves through the late twenties, at which point it begins to steadily deteriorate."

4. Watch out for the halo effect. That is, "the human proclivity to make specific references based on general impressions. Mauboussin cites Phil Rosenzweig's analysis of a tendency to observe so-called "great" companies, attach common attributes to them that explain their success, and recommend others to embrace the attributes to achieve their own success.

Mauboussin observes, "To me, the greatest lesson and opportunity from understanding reversion to the mean is to keep your cool. When outcomes are really good because of a dose of good luck, prepare for times when they will be closer to the average. When outcomes are disappointing as the result of bad luck, recognize that things will get better."

Meanwhile, those who read this book are urged to take some concrete actions immediately to improve the quality of their decisions: Learn about the potential mistakes (Prepare), identify them in context rather than in isolation (Recognize), and sharpen ultimate decisions when they must be made and then executed (Apply). "There are common and identifiable mistakes that you can understand, see in your daily affairs, and manage effectively. In those cases, the correct approach to deciding well often conflicts with what your mind naturally does." If you believe that your decisions cannot be improved, that you do not need this book, think again. Read more ›

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10 of 11 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Don't THINK TWICE about buying this book !!! 29 Oct 2009

By Franco Arda

Format:Hardcover

regard decision making as a fundamental skill in life. It's always been a mystherie to me why books on decision making do not attract a large audience. As the author writes: There's a funny paradox with decision making. Almost everyone realizes how important it is, yet very few people practice (let alone read about it).

THINK TWICE is a fantastic book for people interested in decision making. In particular, why we often fail and how we can improve our skills. Mauboussin offers deep insights into the topic. It's not a dummies book. Readers should expect academic rigor in all of Mauboussin's books. The reader finds a framework for thinking twice without a detailed structure. In particular the last chapter, Time to Think Twice", the author offers some guidance in how we can improve our decision making skills immediately.

In my opinion, there used to be only one outstanding book on decision making: ,Smart Choices`. For practical purposes in decision making, like how to use decision trees, it's still the best book in the market. But ,Think Twice` offers a lot more on the subject. In particular why we make mistakes regarding decisions. Now we got two brilliant books on the subject.

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6 of 7 people found the following review helpful

5.0 out of 5 stars Helpful guide to better decision making 30 Nov 2009

By Rolf Dobelli TOP 500 REVIEWER

Format:Hardcover

Research indicates that people buy more German wine when a store's sound system plays German music in the background and more French wine when it plays French music. However, shoppers claim that the background music has no effect on their wine choices. Most people think that they make rational decisions, even if they do not. In this example, irrelevant, low-level sensory input determines people's choices. Michael J. Mauboussin, a finance professor and investment strategist, wants to help people make better decisions. In his book, he details the most common decision-making mistakes and suggests practical techniques you can use to avoid them. getAbstract recommends this book to people who want to increase their awareness of their own irrationality and, especially, to managers in decision-making positions, whose mistakes may have ripple effects throughout their organizations and even beyond.

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