Review
An English journalist's judicious, albeit limited, take on the shape of things to come over the next generation. In evaluating what the future might hold, McRae, an associate editor of the British periodical Independent, all but ignores large areas of the Global Village, most notably the Middle East, to focus on North America, Western Europe, and East Asia. Before venturing any predictions, however, the author offers savvy status reports on the three economically consequential and committedly capitalist regions he has singled out for attention. McRae then assesses the forces that promise to change the developed world in the next 30 years or so. Cases in point range from demography (which tops his short list) through financial services, governance, natural resources, sociopolitical organization, technology, and trade. The accessible text (published last year in the UK) has helpful graphics and tabular material throughout. Getting down to business, the author provides plausibly detailed briefings on his trio of industrialized locales two decades into the next millennium. In McRae's informed opinion, for example, a vibrant US will have moved further down the road toward becoming a truly multicultural society, one whose living standards may depend on its capacity to reduce the costs of broken homes, crime, a decline in personal responsibility, and excessive litigiousness. By contrast, he suggest that the EU's economic ties could have come undone as a result of cultural diversity and issues of sovereignty. In the meantime, he concludes, an aging Japan could be hard put to keep pace with populous mainland China, whose economic potential is just now being realized. Whether or not McRae has 20/20 foresight, his short-run scenarios for free enterprise's showcase venues are both thought-provoking and credible. (Kirkus Reviews)
Product Description
As the world's economies shift, some countries will succeed and some will fail. Understanding the reasons - and which countries will emerge as the most powerful over the next generation, affects all our futures. Drawing on research from Europe, Japan and America, and using analytical tools which reveal the potential for growth and social harmony in each country, the author discusses the following issues and describes his own vision of the future: why a country's success will depend as much on its people's good behaviour as on their skills; why culture rather than technology will determine which countries will have the cutting edge; why manufacturing will no longer be the key to economic success; how China will become the world's largest economy; why the US must overcome its law-and-order problems to survive; why Japan's rise will peak; why Europe will never become a superstate; and why there will be plenty of jobs but no jobs for life.
From the Back Cover
Hamish McRae, acclaimed economics guru at the 'Independent', has drawn on the best research available form Europe, Japan and America to suppost his radical new vision of the changes to come in the world order in economic, social and political terms over the next generation.
Why will a country's success depend as much on its people's good behaviour as on their skills? Why will culture rather than technology determine which countries dominate? Why will manufacturing no longer be the key to economic success? Why will Japan's rise peak? Why will Europe never become a superstate? Hamish McRae explores a range of controversial issues that will affect all our futures.
Regarded as one of the most original commentators on economics, Hamish McRae is also renowned for making complicated subjects accessible to the general reader. The result is a compelling, illuminating and highly readable vision of the key forces that will shape the next twenty-five years.
“Grounded in penetrating reflections, thoughtful, sensible and extremely well written”
ECONOMIST
“One of Hamish McRae's strengths is his ability to link the familiar concerns of economists with social and moral issues which affect the quality of people's lives.”
SUNDAY TELEGRAPH
“A unique and lucid analysis of the forces that will change our world over the next generation. McRae presents some fascinating new insights”
SIR IAIN VALLANCE, Chairman of British Telecom
About the Author
Hamish McRae is a principle commentator for the Independent, the Independent on Sunday and associate editor of the Independent. He is author of ‘The World in 2020’, which has been translated into more than a dozen languages. He also co-wrote ‘Capital City: London as a Financial Centre’ with his wife, Frances Cairncrosse, and broadcasts regularly on the BBC.
