The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilisation [Paperback]

After buying this book I looked forward to reading it for several weeks as I had a few other books to read first.

I must say at the outset that whilst I am glad I read it and found it very interesting I was mildly disappointed as it did not live up to my expectations. I think that the author makes some very good points, for example, that sources of conventional oil are running out and when they do the world will certainly be a very different place. His theory is essentially that we, as societies, need to be come a lot more resilient to the possible consequences (indeed likelihood) of impending energy-shortage/climate change-induced disaster.

Having said that I did not necessarily agree with his analysis of what caused the fall of the Western Roman empire; many would say that the loss of Rome's North African provinces was the main contributing factor (amongst many others) as this was the area where the food came from and also provided the empire's tax base. The loss of the North African provinces came about for non-environmental reasons (the provinces were invaded). Also, whilst Mr Homer-Dixon focuses on the Roman Empire and the modern West, can useful parallels not be drawn between the modern West and the decline of other empires (eg Mongol, British etc). These empires were even bigger than Rome's and in the case of the British, very recent, but they are not mentioned. Why? Surely if useful lessons can be learnt for today's society in the West then why is there nothing to be gained from studying the decline of the British Empire for example? Maybe it does not fit with the author's theory?

The other main problem I thought was that whilst Mr Homer-Dixon meets many experts and talks to them and formulates his view that society needs to be much more resilient than it is, he offers few practical suggestions as to how it can be made more resilient. The book can in places becomes too theoretical.

Ultimately I enjoyed the book and am glad I read it. In my view the sign of a good book is one that makes you think, especially about "big issues" and in this Mr Homer-Dixon spectacularly succeeds. I can certainly recommend this book to everyone as it is an easy and enjoyable read, even if you, like me, disagree with the author on some issues.

The key question in this book is raised in the very middle: "Why don't we face reality?" A major reason is that we are groping in a fog to learn what that reality is. Homer-Dixon likens our society to a driver careering along a country road in a dense fog. We can barely see what's ahead, but we're somehow confident that no mishap will befall us. We've gotten this far safely. As we drive, we're guided by the mantra of "endless economic growth". We have some idea where we've been, but remain uncertain about what lies ahead. Worse, we don't seem to care. Ignoring the warning signs indicating that all might not be well we continue along our course. In this excellent study of how our society is progressing and where it's likely going, the author clearly outlines the various options before us and what actions we can take to prevent serious disruptions.

The book is a call for preparation. Resilience is what our outlook and our policies should undertake to prevent disasters that we cannot handle. Having observed and reflected on these issues for several years, Homer-Dixon concludes that major difficulties lie ahead. We cannot avoid them - they're already here or loom in the near future. He lists some of the obvious ones: terrorism is now a part of life, climate change beyond our experience is already with us, and economic and social disruption causes have already been pinpointed. His model used as the basis of assessment is the Roman Empire. He cites three examples of what the Empire accomplished, the Colosseum, the road and aqueduct networks and the Temple of Jupiter at Baalbek, Lebanon. All these enterprises required immense amounts of energy, yet a society without engineering schools achieved them all successfully. It worked only so long as the energy was available and applied efficiently. Our schools taught us that the Romans built their imperium on slavery, but Homer-Dixon shows that concept to be false. Oxen pulled the 256 carts of material required by the Colosseum and free peasant farmers supplied the basic energy needs. The Empire collapsed only when the energy required failed. We need to understand what can be learned from that Empire offer, and Homer-Dixon demonstrates how pertinent the lessons are today.

The author's formula for assessment is EROI - Energy Return On Investment. We've been profligate in energy use, and it's future availability is a major concern of the his. "Peak oil" has been the topic of so many books and articles, it should be old news. The author notes how the petroleum industry and those dependent on it keep up a continuous barrage of denial propaganda to discourage us from believing that evident fact. The "globalised" economy was supposed to reduce the distinction between rich and poor. Not only is it having the opposite effect, but it's increasing the consumption of energy in the process. While a number of recent books stress the threats posed by environmental change, Homer-Dixon sees that as but one element in a far larger picture. He deals with a full range of pressures building up to threaten society. He likens them to tectonic stresses likely to snap unexpectedly at any time.

Unlike some books making forecasts or offering timetables of potential catastrophe, Homer-Dixon's more circumspect. He's more concerned with demonstrating that the kinds of "growth" we've experienced cannot endure. What and when surprise setbacks occur is of less importance to him than how we adjust to them. He's not addressing a small coterie of "movers and shakers" with this work His prose style is just short of that of a story-telling narrative. He means for all of us, taxpayers, policy-makers and even academics and scientists, to participate in the development and preparation of new sets of options for survival. We will all be effected by the unfolding events. While this may seem that the author's "Down" is inevitable and final, he prefixed it with "Upside" for a reason. His opening depicts the destruction of a city - San Francisco in the 1906 earthquake and fire. The city didn't collapse and die, but recovery meant a new approach to disaster planning. We must follow that example, or our collapse will be more severe. It will be global and possibly all-consuming. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]

This book is a game changer to use a well worn cliche.

Why?, well Homer Dixon explains that our civilisation has become highly complex and fragile and that it is exposed to a number of threats that could tip us into the abyss. Such threats include, population migration, the potential ability of small violent groups to distabilise our society, climate change, and economic and social imbalances. Indeed the ecomonic crash we are still going through fits exactly into Homer Dixon's thesis, how obscure financial instruments such as CDOs and CDSs had the ability to bring the system down.

But the main thrust of his book is energy and how the increasing cost of extracting and supplying energy impacts on civilisation. It comes down to a formula or ratio, EROEI, energy returned on energy invested. So when oil (Middle Eastern oil I mean) was first discovered and extracted it took about 1 barrel of oil invested to return about 30 barrels of oil ie 1:30, this type of oil is being depleted. Alternatives include shale oil in Venezuala and Canada but the EROEI ratio for shale is 1:1.5, it takes much more energy to extract this emergy, it's a similar story for other types of energy, gas, nuclear, solar etc. Past civilisations collapsed when EROEI reached unsustainable levels (see Joseph Tainter) Homer Dixon uses the Roman Empire as an example, agricultural produce provided the bulk of the Empires source of energy, as the Empire grew the supply of food became more costly.

This is a vitally important book if we are going to survive as a civilisation, Homer Dixon suggests we look at our obsession with growth, our reliance on a single energy source, our deep social divisions. But I fear that these issues are too big to solve in the timescale we have.