The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction and over 2 million other books are available for Amazon Kindle . Learn more
  • RRP: £9.99
  • You Save: £3.00 (30%)
FREE Delivery in the UK on orders with at least £10 of books.
In stock.
Dispatched from and sold by Amazon.
Gift-wrap available.
Quantity:1
The Signal and the Noise:... has been added to your Basket
+ £2.80 UK delivery
Used: Very Good | Details
Sold by fatbrainbooks
Condition: Used: Very Good
Comment: Dispatch Same Working Day, (Delivery 2-4 business days, Courier For Heavy/Expensive Items) Money Back Guarantee, 99.3% Customer Satisfaction, Prompt Customer Service.
Trade in your item
Get a £1.16
Gift Card.
Have one to sell?
Flip to back Flip to front
Listen Playing... Paused   You're listening to a sample of the Audible audio edition.
Learn more
See all 2 images

The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction Paperback – 18 Apr 2013

129 customer reviews

See all 9 formats and editions Hide other formats and editions
Amazon Price New from Used from
Kindle Edition
"Please retry"
Hardcover
"Please retry"
£4.48
Paperback
"Please retry"
£6.99
£4.70 £3.98
£6.99 FREE Delivery in the UK on orders with at least £10 of books. In stock. Dispatched from and sold by Amazon. Gift-wrap available.

Special Offers and Product Promotions

  • Win a £5,000 Amazon.co.uk Gift Card for your child's school by voting for their favourite book. Learn more.
  • Prepare for the summer with our pick of the best selection for children (ages 0 - 12) across Amazon.co.uk.

Frequently Bought Together

The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction + Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets + Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder
Price For All Three: £21.47

Buy the selected items together


Win a £5,000 Amazon.co.uk Gift Card and 30 Kindle E-readers for your child or pupil's school.
Vote for your child or pupil(s) favourite book(s) here to be in with a chance to win.

Product details

  • Paperback: 544 pages
  • Publisher: Penguin (18 April 2013)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0141975652
  • ISBN-13: 978-0141975658
  • Product Dimensions: 12.9 x 2.3 x 19.8 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (129 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 8,061 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

More About the Author

Discover books, learn about writers, and more.

Product Description

Review

Outstanding... I was hooked (Tim Harford Financial Times)

One of the more momentous books of the decade (The New York Times Book Review)

A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically (Guardian)

The inhabitants of Westminster are speed-reading The Signal and the Noise... They will find the book remarkable and rewarding (Sunday Telegraph)

Is there anything now that Nate Silver could tell us that we wouldn't believe? (Jonathan Freedland)

Fascinating... our age's Brunel (Bryan Appleyard Sunday Times)

A surprisingly accessible peek into the world of mathematical probability (Daily Telegraph)

The Galileo of number crunchers (Independent)

A 34-year old Delphic Oracle (Daily Beast)

About the Author

Nate Silver is a statistician and political forecaster at The New York Times. In 2012, he correctly predicted the outcome of 50 out of 50 states during the US presidential election, trumping the professional pollsters and pundits. He was named one of TIME's 100 Most Influential People in the world, and one of Rolling Stones' top Agents of Change. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.

Inside This Book

(Learn More)
Browse and search another edition of this book.
Browse Sample Pages
Front Cover | Copyright | Table of Contents | Excerpt | Index | Back Cover
Search inside this book:

What Other Items Do Customers Buy After Viewing This Item?

Customer Reviews

3.9 out of 5 stars

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

146 of 151 people found the following review helpful By Robert Macdonald on 28 Nov. 2012
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
Mr Silver clearly knows what he is talking about, but I'm less sure he knows how to talk about it. I assume he set out to write a chatty, non-challenging book, but the result is light on substance and structure.

The Nobel prize-winning physicist Niels Bohr famously said 'Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future'. This pretty much sums up the first half of the book. Yes, the detail about the financial crisis, weather forecasting, earthquakes etc is mildly interesting, but in relation to prediction, you will be wading through a lot of noise to extract the signal ('human nature makes us over-confident predictors', 'without either good theory or good empirical data, you may as well just guess','the most confident pundits are usually the worst' etc).

The substance of the book comes in twenty pages in the middle, where Silver introduces Bayesian logic (I learnt in maths classes at school when I was fourteen so it wasn't new to me, and it doesn't need 200 pages of build up). The best section is where Silver contrasts Bayesian logic to Fisherian logic. Fisher created the maths that is used almost universally in medical and social science research to prove the efficacy of a treatment or theory. Silver explains how flawed this maths is - which is presumably why two thirds of the positive findings claimed in medical journals cannot be replicated. This is pretty heady stuff.

Silver claims that the second half of the book is about how to make predictions better. It is mostly more examples of failure, this time in chess, investment, climate and terrorism, with a few asides that might be considered signals ('testing is good', 'groups/markets tend to make better predictions than individuals').
Read more ›
1 Comment Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback. If this review is inappropriate, please let us know.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
51 of 55 people found the following review helpful By RobK on 8 Dec. 2012
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
This is a book about prediction and the use of statistics to forecast future events such as earthquakes and the outcome of elections. When it's good it's a lucid and enjoyable read which makes some important points about the art of prediction, with the chapters on political punditry and economic forecasting stand out as especially good. Unfortunately this is let down by a number of problems. These include the interminable and really quite tedious chapters on poker, baseball and chess (I really don't know why the chess one is in the book at all), and the inclusion of a number of serious errors and misconceptions in the chapter on epidemiology. This last is a subject that I think I have some knowledge of, and it's disturbing to see straightforward and important factual errors - the definition of the basic reproductive rate used is badly wrong, for example (if anyone's interested the correct definition is that it is the number of new infections produced by a single infectious host *in a population of completely susceptible hosts*), and the interpretation is also wrong (it's not correct that any disease with basic reproductive rate >1 will go on to infect all susceptible hosts in the population). These are not nit-picking little errors - it's the equivalent of getting the definition of interest rate seriously wrong in a discussion of economics. These are fundamental concepts and the errors tell us that the author did not properly understand the subject that he's writing about.Read more ›
2 Comments Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback. If this review is inappropriate, please let us know.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful By Amazon Customer #1 HALL OF FAMETOP 50 REVIEWER on 11 Nov. 2013
Format: Paperback Vine Customer Review of Free Product ( What's this? )
The feel of this book says a lot about the author. If you are lauded as one of the world's most influential people by Time magazine at just turned thirty it would be easy for it to turn your head. It would also be tempting to cash in with a very populist tome or emphasise one's superiority by getting all academic.

This book is neither and it may disappoint the lay reader and statistician alike. However, Nate is not just an excellent statistical analyst, he is a good communicator and there is a sense that he wants to share what he knows in a very unassuming manner. It may lack the wow of Freakanomics or the learned tone of Black Swan but for me, this book informed and educated far more than either.

One might expect that an individual who correctly predicted the outcome of 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 US election and then 50 out of 50 in 2012 would be full of 'can do' but the author doesn't big things up and talks as much about the limits of predictive science as the possibilities.

Nate illustrates the potential and constraints on predictive theories by considering subjects ranging from gaming to the weather and from the stock market to world events. All pitched at a level that seems designed to inform rather than sound clever and communicate rather than evangelise.

This is a lengthy read at 450 pages plus notes but I didn't find it plodding although the discursive style might cause some to want him to get to the point and feel bereft of hard conclusions. However, to me this rather underscored where he was coming from.

Nate's own achievements were something of a footnote and the book is very much not about him. That modesty and the clear desire to share gives the impression of a very likeable individual, not what one would expect of an individual who had achieved so much within a dozen years of high school. A thoughtful and thought provoking book.
Comment Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback. If this review is inappropriate, please let us know.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again

Most Recent Customer Reviews



Feedback