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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century [Paperback]

George Friedman
3.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (35 customer reviews)

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Book Description

26 Jan 2010
A fascinating, eye-opening and often shocking look at what lies ahead for the U.S. and the world from one of our most incisive futurists.
 
In his thought-provoking new book, George Friedman, founder of STRATFOR—the preeminent private intelligence and forecasting firm—focuses on what he knows best, the future. Positing that civilization is at the dawn of a new era, he offers a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century all based on his own thorough analysis and research. For example, The U.S.-Jihadist war will be replaced by a new cold war with Russia; China’s role as a world power will diminish; Mexico will become an important force on the geopolitical stage; and new technologies and cultural trends will radically alter the way we live (and fight wars). Riveting reading from first to last, The Next 100 Years is a fascinating exploration of what the future holds for all of us.

For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com


Product details

  • Paperback: 253 pages
  • Publisher: Anchor Books (26 Jan 2010)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0767923057
  • ISBN-13: 978-0767923057
  • Product Dimensions: 20.3 x 13 x 2.3 cm
  • Average Customer Review: 3.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (35 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 31,309 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Review

'A unique combination of cold-eyed realism and boldly confident fortune-telling' Publishers Weekly --This text refers to an alternate Paperback edition.

About the Author

GEORGE FRIEDMAN is the founder and CEO of STRATFOR, the world’s leading private intelligence and forecasting company. He is frequently called upon as a media expert and is the author of four books, including most recently America’s Secret War, and numerous articles on national security, information warfare, computer security, and the intelligence business. He lives in Austin, Texas.

--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews
12 of 13 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars The Audacity of Hope 30 Mar 2010
By Ed Foye
Format:Paperback|Verified Purchase
It's not unsurprising that this book was a bestseller in the United States. This book postulates the shape of the 21st century and just what might happen. In 13 chapters, the author presents his opinion that this is the age of America. The war on terrorism: a counterfuge to stop the emergence of an Islamic superpower. The growth of China: a myth that will all fall apart very soon due to the inherent divisions and instability of the country. A United States of Europe: another myth- instead Poland will become a strong regional power whilst Germany fragments. Turkey: a potential powerhouse that will try to and fail to take over Europe and be severely punished as a result.

The thoughts of Friedman are probably wrong. Certainly they present a rosy view of the future for Americans- and who doesn't want to believe it. Yet for all its shortcomings, this book is no modern Nostradamus. Instead the text is easy to read and very entertaining and even if his predictions are far from accurate they at least will give the reader food for thought.
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49 of 56 people found the following review helpful
1.0 out of 5 stars Big disappointment! 6 Jan 2010
Format:Paperback
Friedman totally misses the point by contradicting his own opening statements about "identifying long-term underlying trends". He bases the whole book on misguided assumptions and geo-politics. Alvin Toffler pointed out 20 years ago that geo-politics is on the way out...
The real "long-term underlying trends" are not about "dominating sea-trade"! And they are not about waging wars. Friedman thinks that "unconventional wars" are about shooting it out in spaceships. That is "Flash Gordon thinking", not forecasting...
Unconventional wars are actually about guerilla warfare, terrorism, inciting civil unrest, hacking computers. Looking into the next 100 years, the real questions are about how will countries try to exert influence over one another? How will economic disputes be resolved? Will missile threats be replaced by cyber-threats? Or by an attack on a country's currency? What about biological threats, like spreading H1N1 virus?
Friedman assumes that history will repeat itself in the same way. Big mistake. History sometimes repeats itself (not as often as people are led to think), but always in a different shape or form. Japan will not go to war against the US. Poland will not spark another war in Europe. Turkey will not try to re-enact the Otoman Empire. These are all ridiculous forecasts based on 19th Century assumptions.
A forecast of the next 100 years should challenge us to think about what kind of political issues will be relevant. For instance:
1. Will we move from a "bi-polar" world (20th Century US capitalism versus Russian communism) towards a truly multi-lateral world in which five blocks will have almost equal economic power, without clear dominance of one over the others? (US, Europe, China, India, South America?).
2.
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent book - could not put it down! 23 May 2011
Format:Paperback
I bought this book with some trepidation based on some of the other reviews. The main criticsm seems to be that the book is too American-centric. However, the author makes clear from the beginning why this is so, and how it will influence the remainder of this century.

"The Next 100 Years" then proceeds to consider current facts and trends in geography, demography and culture, and extrapolates these quite reasonably until about 2040. From this point, things become much more foggy: the author predicts a war between America and a Turkish-Japanese alliance, at which point the book's narrative style tends more to storytelling of this scenario - As the author states, it is very difficult to make precise predictions at this point.

Disagree if you will, but I consider the basic application here of geography, demography and culture t ohow events will play out turns this book into a cracking read.
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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
3.0 out of 5 stars A book of 3 parts. 30 Jan 2011
Format:Paperback
The Next 100 Years : A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman is a book of 3 parts. Great, fantastical, and good. George takes us on a journey of macro socio, politico, eco, and geo (and a mix of all 4) and by tracing back through history and cycles within it, has forecast what he believes to be the power struggles over the next century.

It is fascinating stuff initially, where he defines fault lines in terms of tension points around the globe and which countries will strive to make political, economic, social or geographical moves and against whom as the balance of power within continents shift and moves. It's certainly interesting stuff and as he acknowledges, he presents this in the full knowledge that he won't be around to see whether he was right or wrong (but he will I'm sure have made a good living from doing it) and so you can't really challenge his assumptions (or forecasts) too greatly.

Where the book gets a bit fantastical is around 2050 when we have the description of a world war, controlled by space centers, and troops in robotic "Iron Man" type costumes being fed electricity from Solar beams that have been microwave blasted down from solar panels on the moon. The realities of the first main section of the book seem light years away at this point (and who am I again to really challenge these assumptions?) but it does come back down to Earth again as we conclude the century with Mexico and the US in a power struggle for the control of North America.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars exciting
For myself and another as a present.
Both parties just loved it.
IF you ever look at the world of today and wonder - then this book is for you
Published 2 months ago by Thomas Millett
5.0 out of 5 stars Highly recommended
Fascinating, informative, well constructed and argued. Of course, no-one knows precisely what will happen in the future but this all rings true. Read more
Published 3 months ago by P. Borrington
3.0 out of 5 stars Next 100 years, The Forecast for the 21st Century
Good service from Amazon.

Book review: entertaining writing, but somewhat a talk up for Americans - what the author did not seem to forecast was/is the rise of China... Read more
Published 3 months ago by DP Lonchay
4.0 out of 5 stars Perhaps.
As of 2009 - 2010, the underlying arguments to this book are predicated on a reasonable interpretation of historical precedent, technological trends and the expectation that the... Read more
Published 5 months ago by S Smyth
2.0 out of 5 stars Don't bother
A fairly interesting read for the first few chapters but unfortunately it then becomes little more than a piece of US banner waving until it finally spins completely out of control... Read more
Published 6 months ago by cliffy
3.0 out of 5 stars interesting - some good insights - some way off base
I like the book - but Freidman misses the importance of the Renaissance in Europe and its role in driving the global domination of European powers from that period on. Read more
Published 7 months ago by Glenn Howard
2.0 out of 5 stars interesting concepts
So one more hundred years of American domination, surprised China will not rise to power or even India, time to buy into Turkey
Published 7 months ago by Paul Byrnes
3.0 out of 5 stars Thee Next Hundred Years
Its rather heavy going and towards the end develops into a Star Wars scenario which in the time scale, is fanciful
However the early pars makes sense though as it was... Read more
Published 9 months ago by Judge TW Lambet
2.0 out of 5 stars Interesting but old fashioned
This book is an incite full story of what could happen during the 21st century, and it is indeed quite interesting, battle stars, Mexico, Poland
However there are some big... Read more
Published 10 months ago by Luke McManus
5.0 out of 5 stars the next 100 years
amusing. not that exciting. I am not sure can I believe in all that was written. but for anyone interesting in politics as a hobby, nice book...
Published 10 months ago by Aleksandra Jensen
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