- Hardcover: 272 pages
- Publisher: Doubleday Books (20 Jan 2009)
- Language English
- ISBN-10: 038551705X
- ISBN-13: 978-0385517058
- Product Dimensions: 23.6 x 16.3 x 2.7 cm
- Average Customer Review: 3.1 out of 5 stars See all reviews (22 customer reviews)
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 300,247 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
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Product Description
Review
'A unique combination of cold-eyed realism and boldly confident fortune-telling' Publishers Weekly
--This text refers to the
Paperback
edition.
Review
'Fascinating because of its dismissal of the conventional wisdom' New York Post 'Mr Friedman's work warrants the investment of an evening of careful reading' Washington Times
--This text refers to an alternate
Hardcover
edition.
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Customer Reviews
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
10 of 11 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
It's not unsurprising that this book was a bestseller in the United States. This book postulates the shape of the 21st century and just what might happen. In 13 chapters, the author presents his opinion that this is the age of America. The war on terrorism: a counterfuge to stop the emergence of an Islamic superpower. The growth of China: a myth that will all fall apart very soon due to the inherent divisions and instability of the country. A United States of Europe: another myth- instead Poland will become a strong regional power whilst Germany fragments. Turkey: a potential powerhouse that will try to and fail to take over Europe and be severely punished as a result.
The thoughts of Friedman are probably wrong. Certainly they present a rosy view of the future for Americans- and who doesn't want to believe it. Yet for all its shortcomings, this book is no modern Nostradamus. Instead the text is easy to read and very entertaining and even if his predictions are far from accurate they at least will give the reader food for thought.
The thoughts of Friedman are probably wrong. Certainly they present a rosy view of the future for Americans- and who doesn't want to believe it. Yet for all its shortcomings, this book is no modern Nostradamus. Instead the text is easy to read and very entertaining and even if his predictions are far from accurate they at least will give the reader food for thought.
8 of 9 people found the following review helpful
Format:Hardcover
One of the things which attracts me to this author is he explains why things happen as they do, in objective terms. His work "America's Secret War" is so far the only explanation I've found of why America was attacked on 9/11, why they subsequently went to war in Afghanistan and why they later went to war in Iraq. There are many works, some good and some little better than angry rants, pointing out the obvious ethical and tactical flaws in US actions, but very few actually say why it happened and what the objectives were. This is Friedman's greatest strength and why I find his books, including this one, entertaining.
In this work he challenges your held perceptions that many of the things he predicts are too far fetched to be plausible by reminding us that the disintegration of the USSR was "too far fetched" a view in 1979, but 15 years later it was over and accepted as reality.
Whether some of his seemingly outlandish predictions will happen is matter for time but that's not necessarily the aim of the book. It is very well written work on why countries act the way they do on the world stage, bound as they are by geopolitical reality, which in turn is shaped by fundamentals such as geography, culture, mineral wealth and the like and thus what we can deduce a country might do, constrained as it is. He backs his statements with reasons and logic, and while some may regard the work as US-centric, he is not shy of some harsh statements of his fellow citizens and government.
The first part of the book establishes the actions of the world's most important players (past and present) and this was the best of the book for me. It gives a great understanding of the foundations of US (and other great world powers) foreign policy and thus, why these government act as they do. He then explains why other nations bind together to try to contain the US and thus, we have the great game.
The latter part of the book is an attempt to predict the future, based on the actions of how the US (which incidentally he describes as a barbarous country) will attempt to maintain it's position as the global power, and how other countries will either bend with this or resist, for their own rational reasons. This part will appear far fetched to many (including me I must say) but if you ignore the details a little and forget the science fiction and remember he is trying to give you the tone of the next 100 years, it's worth reading.
Taken together you have an good opinion on the tone that the next 100 years will take, in a broad sense and a good work on the framework by which geopolitics works. Very enjoyable.
In this work he challenges your held perceptions that many of the things he predicts are too far fetched to be plausible by reminding us that the disintegration of the USSR was "too far fetched" a view in 1979, but 15 years later it was over and accepted as reality.
Whether some of his seemingly outlandish predictions will happen is matter for time but that's not necessarily the aim of the book. It is very well written work on why countries act the way they do on the world stage, bound as they are by geopolitical reality, which in turn is shaped by fundamentals such as geography, culture, mineral wealth and the like and thus what we can deduce a country might do, constrained as it is. He backs his statements with reasons and logic, and while some may regard the work as US-centric, he is not shy of some harsh statements of his fellow citizens and government.
The first part of the book establishes the actions of the world's most important players (past and present) and this was the best of the book for me. It gives a great understanding of the foundations of US (and other great world powers) foreign policy and thus, why these government act as they do. He then explains why other nations bind together to try to contain the US and thus, we have the great game.
The latter part of the book is an attempt to predict the future, based on the actions of how the US (which incidentally he describes as a barbarous country) will attempt to maintain it's position as the global power, and how other countries will either bend with this or resist, for their own rational reasons. This part will appear far fetched to many (including me I must say) but if you ignore the details a little and forget the science fiction and remember he is trying to give you the tone of the next 100 years, it's worth reading.
Taken together you have an good opinion on the tone that the next 100 years will take, in a broad sense and a good work on the framework by which geopolitics works. Very enjoyable.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
The Next 100 Years : A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman is a book of 3 parts. Great, fantastical, and good. George takes us on a journey of macro socio, politico, eco, and geo (and a mix of all 4) and by tracing back through history and cycles within it, has forecast what he believes to be the power struggles over the next century.
It is fascinating stuff initially, where he defines fault lines in terms of tension points around the globe and which countries will strive to make political, economic, social or geographical moves and against whom as the balance of power within continents shift and moves. It's certainly interesting stuff and as he acknowledges, he presents this in the full knowledge that he won't be around to see whether he was right or wrong (but he will I'm sure have made a good living from doing it) and so you can't really challenge his assumptions (or forecasts) too greatly.
Where the book gets a bit fantastical is around 2050 when we have the description of a world war, controlled by space centers, and troops in robotic "Iron Man" type costumes being fed electricity from Solar beams that have been microwave blasted down from solar panels on the moon. The realities of the first main section of the book seem light years away at this point (and who am I again to really challenge these assumptions?) but it does come back down to Earth again as we conclude the century with Mexico and the US in a power struggle for the control of North America.
I have read reviews of this book that suggest that it is too central to America as the power base in the world, but as a non-American, I feel that this is probably justified as the start-point for the book is where we are today and you can't really debate the influence America has on the world, whether you like it nor not.
I enjoyed the majority of the book. The 2050 war and the whole space thing began feeling like reading some science fiction novel and that was at extreme odds to the very well structured and explained first and third section forecasts, but nonetheless this was an interesting and enjoyable read.
It is fascinating stuff initially, where he defines fault lines in terms of tension points around the globe and which countries will strive to make political, economic, social or geographical moves and against whom as the balance of power within continents shift and moves. It's certainly interesting stuff and as he acknowledges, he presents this in the full knowledge that he won't be around to see whether he was right or wrong (but he will I'm sure have made a good living from doing it) and so you can't really challenge his assumptions (or forecasts) too greatly.
Where the book gets a bit fantastical is around 2050 when we have the description of a world war, controlled by space centers, and troops in robotic "Iron Man" type costumes being fed electricity from Solar beams that have been microwave blasted down from solar panels on the moon. The realities of the first main section of the book seem light years away at this point (and who am I again to really challenge these assumptions?) but it does come back down to Earth again as we conclude the century with Mexico and the US in a power struggle for the control of North America.
I have read reviews of this book that suggest that it is too central to America as the power base in the world, but as a non-American, I feel that this is probably justified as the start-point for the book is where we are today and you can't really debate the influence America has on the world, whether you like it nor not.
I enjoyed the majority of the book. The 2050 war and the whole space thing began feeling like reading some science fiction novel and that was at extreme odds to the very well structured and explained first and third section forecasts, but nonetheless this was an interesting and enjoyable read.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews
Good exposition of a self-centred worldview - 5 stars
This book purports to be a story about the next 100 years in geopolitics. And, at a superficial level, it is. Read more
Published 4 months ago by Wl Buckland
Really Enjoyable
I felt like writing this review after seeing all of the negative reviews this book gets. It really is worth reminding everyone that no-one can truly know the future, but George... Read more
Published 9 months ago by vikingraider
Next 100 Years Hard to Prove Wrong
George Friedman is in the happy position that there will no one reading now who will be alive to point out any flaws in his predictions in 100 years time. Read more
Published 12 months ago by Homer
Unconvinced
Although the book was published in 2009, by 2011 some forcasts are already out of date. For example on page 200 when refering to Japan the author says "It [Japan] is currently the... Read more
Published 12 months ago by Rob
Excellent book - could not put it down!
I bought this book with some trepidation based on some of the other reviews. The main criticsm seems to be that the book is too American-centric. Read more
Published 12 months ago by D. Maher
Possibly the worst argumented book I've read
The author repeatedly makes the mistake of respectively elevating his understanding of the world outside of the US to unbearable levels, and at the same contradicting himself in... Read more
Published 17 months ago by Boye-M¿ller, Arne J.
How the USA would like the next 100 years to be.
I bought this book to see me through a train journey. The blurb on the back got me hooked.
Obviously, with a project like this, the writer isn't going to get everything... Read more
Obviously, with a project like this, the writer isn't going to get everything... Read more
Published 17 months ago by Mr. S. Fraser
Who can know the unknowable?
What is the authors track record, why should we listen to him at all, how can we predict the unpredictable, this is not a serious business book, just a bit of irrelevant fun. Read more
Published 20 months ago by John Harris
Excellent Book.
* PLEASE NOTE : It basically talks about the next 100 years in geopolitical terms, if you want something more social/technological read The Next 50 Years. Read more
Published 21 months ago by W. Farmer
Fictional Best Seller - At Best
Utter pap.
I was given this to read by a chap I work with under the impression that it was a well researched and impartial book. What a load of old tripe. Read more
I was given this to read by a chap I work with under the impression that it was a well researched and impartial book. What a load of old tripe. Read more
Published 23 months ago by M. G. Chisholm
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