- Hardcover: 312 pages
- Publisher: Greenwood Press (30 Aug 2008)
- Language English
- ISBN-10: 0313354790
- ISBN-13: 978-0313354793
- Product Dimensions: 23.6 x 16 x 3.3 cm
- Average Customer Review: 3.5 out of 5 stars See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 775,867 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
The Myth of the Oil Crisis
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Review
"Geologist, economist, and petroleum industry insider Mills makes an intelligent case for oil's continuing role as a major, growing energy source. A Herculean task, one would think, given public sentiment on the matter. Mills manages it by first neatly dividing opposing viewpoints into five camps: geologists (those who espouse peak oil theory), economists (the markets will work it out), militarists (use power to secure energy supplies), environmentalists (fossil fuels: no), and no-Luddites (fossil fuels, consumption, and materialism: no). He then conquers their positions with lively, exhaustive sourced arguments to say that there may be more conventional oil than reported, colossal unconventional sources, and plentiful energy substitutes. Mills shows deep understanding of the complexity of the issue, and while promising no easy fixes, he is yet hopeful: gloomy predictions do not resemble the real world and take no account of human integrity." -
Library Journal, Starred Review
Review
"Geologist, economist, and petroleum industry insider Mills makes an intelligent case for oil's continuing role as a major, growing energy source. A Herculean task, one would think, given public sentiment on the matter. Mills manages it by first neatly dividing opposing viewpoints into five camps: geologists (those who espouse peak oil theory), economists (the markets will work it out), militarists (use power to secure energy supplies), environmentalists (fossil fuels: no), and no-Luddites (fossil fuels, consumption, and materialism: no). He then conquers their positions with lively, exhaustive sourced arguements to say that there may be more conventional oil than reported, colossal unconventional sources, and plentiful energy substitutes. Mills shows deep understanding of the complexity of the issue, and while promising no easy fixes, he is yet hopeful: gloomy predictions do not resemble the real world and take no account of human integrity." -
Library Journal, Starred Review --This text refers to the Paperback edition.
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Customer Reviews
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
6 of 8 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
The most worrying aspect of this book, is that the author himself (on page 104) says we will not reach peak until 2010, using a 2.2% depletion rate. IEA claims the current (2009) depletion rate is 5.1-6.7%, with whistleblower estimates all the way up to 9.1%. These rates mean new production will not offset the decline. Additionally, oil production has been on a plateau since 2005, which seems to confirm the suspicions of peak oil believers.
He furthermore adds that Mexico hasn't peaked (though Cantarell is in virtual freefall), consistently overestimates oil fields (trivially accepts the words of Saudi and Kuwaiti officials, despite all the controversy), that OPEC will hit 38mbpd by 2010 (actual 2009 figure is 28mbpd, so a little hard to believe), takes the Brazilian deepwater 25-40bn speculated figure as fact (despite Petrobras insisting this isn't proven), claims that Iraqi oil production could increase by 500k with minimal investment (7 years on, and we haven't seen this in production figures, despite significant investment)... and so on. Frankly, the amount of controversial statements in this book is too substantial to list.
All of this is mixed with hardline interpretation of the Hubbert curve, as well as cheap shots at the opposition, which frankly works only to undermine his own argument.
I did however enjoy the part on unconventional oil - although, in line with the rest of the book, the Bakken formation is trivially upgraded from the generally accepted 3.6bn recoverable to 8-90bn barrels.
Finally, the author claims Iraq wasn't invaded for oil. If you honestly believe this statement, then I guess this book is for you.
He furthermore adds that Mexico hasn't peaked (though Cantarell is in virtual freefall), consistently overestimates oil fields (trivially accepts the words of Saudi and Kuwaiti officials, despite all the controversy), that OPEC will hit 38mbpd by 2010 (actual 2009 figure is 28mbpd, so a little hard to believe), takes the Brazilian deepwater 25-40bn speculated figure as fact (despite Petrobras insisting this isn't proven), claims that Iraqi oil production could increase by 500k with minimal investment (7 years on, and we haven't seen this in production figures, despite significant investment)... and so on. Frankly, the amount of controversial statements in this book is too substantial to list.
All of this is mixed with hardline interpretation of the Hubbert curve, as well as cheap shots at the opposition, which frankly works only to undermine his own argument.
I did however enjoy the part on unconventional oil - although, in line with the rest of the book, the Bakken formation is trivially upgraded from the generally accepted 3.6bn recoverable to 8-90bn barrels.
Finally, the author claims Iraq wasn't invaded for oil. If you honestly believe this statement, then I guess this book is for you.
4 of 12 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
I very much recommend this book to anyone interested in, or worried about, energy issues. The author is an industry insider (which he acknowledges up front) but the book is very far from being an apologia for the oil industry. It is a dense and fact-heavy read which is closely argued. The core arguments are as follows:
- the Hubble theory of 'peak oil' is just that, a theory, and not a scientific truth
- there are major weaknesses in the Hubble theory and there are significantly greater hydrocarbon resources than is commonly thought
- oil is not about to run out and even if it did it would not result in the collapse of civilized society
- gas and coal can be used to susbtitute for many (if not all) applications of oil
- even so, the threat of climate change means that diversification away from, and more sensible usage of, hydrocarbons is important and necessary
- there are huge opportunities for such diversification and efficiency
The book is a powerful and intelligent riposte to the doom-laden, apocalyptic genre of 'peak oil' literature.
Many environmentalists won't like it one bit but they will find it hard to argue with the facts laid out in the book - and they should remember that the author is a confirmed believer in anthropogenic global warming and its dangers.
However, read with an open mind the books shows how a calm, rational approach to energy issues is much more sensible than much of the polemical hyperbole written on the subject.
It deserves to be read widely.
- the Hubble theory of 'peak oil' is just that, a theory, and not a scientific truth
- there are major weaknesses in the Hubble theory and there are significantly greater hydrocarbon resources than is commonly thought
- oil is not about to run out and even if it did it would not result in the collapse of civilized society
- gas and coal can be used to susbtitute for many (if not all) applications of oil
- even so, the threat of climate change means that diversification away from, and more sensible usage of, hydrocarbons is important and necessary
- there are huge opportunities for such diversification and efficiency
The book is a powerful and intelligent riposte to the doom-laden, apocalyptic genre of 'peak oil' literature.
Many environmentalists won't like it one bit but they will find it hard to argue with the facts laid out in the book - and they should remember that the author is a confirmed believer in anthropogenic global warming and its dangers.
However, read with an open mind the books shows how a calm, rational approach to energy issues is much more sensible than much of the polemical hyperbole written on the subject.
It deserves to be read widely.
Most Helpful Customer Reviews on Amazon.com (beta)
Amazon.com:
16 reviews
46 of 50 people found the following review helpful
Straw Man
18 Mar 2009
Format:Hardcover
The author of this book and his followers on this website have constructed a "straw man" out of the peak oil argument. In so doing, they have misrepresented the entire debate by essentially equating "peak oil" with "running out of oil." Peak oil refers to the point in time when the world reaches the maximum rate of oil production. This can happen even when a large amount of oil (both conventional and non-conventional) still remains in the ground.
For example, the peak of U.S. oil production occurred in the 1970s even though there were still large oil fields in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere in the U.S. that had not been produced or discovered. Likewise, world oil production can peak even though there is still a large amount of oil (and tar sands, oil shales, coal, natural gas, biofuels, etc) remaining. The danger is we may not be able to produce these remaining resources as rapidly or economically as conventional crude oil, in which case peak oil would occur. This, in turn, could lead to an end of economic growth as we have known it, as economic growth has always gone hand in hand with ever increasing energy consumption. I hope that does not happen. However, this book provides no comfort because it only deals with a distorted and simplistic version of the peak oil debate and fails to confront real issues.
For example, the peak of U.S. oil production occurred in the 1970s even though there were still large oil fields in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere in the U.S. that had not been produced or discovered. Likewise, world oil production can peak even though there is still a large amount of oil (and tar sands, oil shales, coal, natural gas, biofuels, etc) remaining. The danger is we may not be able to produce these remaining resources as rapidly or economically as conventional crude oil, in which case peak oil would occur. This, in turn, could lead to an end of economic growth as we have known it, as economic growth has always gone hand in hand with ever increasing energy consumption. I hope that does not happen. However, this book provides no comfort because it only deals with a distorted and simplistic version of the peak oil debate and fails to confront real issues.
32 of 38 people found the following review helpful
It's the flow rate, stupid
30 May 2009
Format:Hardcover
This books discusses in length how much oil there is left in the ground. Unfortunately, this is not very relevant. What matters is how fast we can get it out, and how much it costs. Just imagine you have a billion dollars in the bank, but your bank does not allow you to withdraw more than $1 per day. With oil, it is becoming more and more like that - the "resources" are vast, but the "bank" (nature/geology) allows only smaller and smaller withdrawals. And it takes more and more energy to get it out, because the stuff gets more and more viscuous. Used to be like water in the old days, now it's like honey. Have you ever tried to drink honey with a straw?
31 of 37 people found the following review helpful
Texas and North Sea to the Rescue
29 May 2009
Format:Hardcover
Texas and the North Sea provide excellent examples of the kind of oil production results that private oil companies--using the best available technology, with virtually no restrictions on drilling--can achieve.
Since peaking in 1972, Texas oil production has declined at about -4%/year, and since peaking in 1999, the North Sea has declined at about -4.5%/year (EIA data, crude + condensate).
In 2005, Saudi Arabia was at about the same mathematical stage of depletion at which Texas, the prior swing producer, peaked, and Saudi Arabia has shown three straight years of production below their 2005 rate, despite the highest annual oil prices in history.
In 2005, world conventional crude production was at about the same stage of depletion at which the North Sea peaked in 1999, and the world has shown, with some benefit from unconventional production, basically flat production since 2005, although in reality the world has shown a cumulative shortfall between what we would have produced at the 2005 rate and what was actually produced--despite the highest annual oil prices in history.
This pattern of flat to declining production versus rising oil prices was what we also witnessed in the early stages of the Texas and North Sea production declines.
But the primary problem we face is a long term accelerating rate of decline in net oil exports. For more information on our (Brown & Foucher) work, do a Google Search for Jeffrey Brown + Net Oil Exports.
Since peaking in 1972, Texas oil production has declined at about -4%/year, and since peaking in 1999, the North Sea has declined at about -4.5%/year (EIA data, crude + condensate).
In 2005, Saudi Arabia was at about the same mathematical stage of depletion at which Texas, the prior swing producer, peaked, and Saudi Arabia has shown three straight years of production below their 2005 rate, despite the highest annual oil prices in history.
In 2005, world conventional crude production was at about the same stage of depletion at which the North Sea peaked in 1999, and the world has shown, with some benefit from unconventional production, basically flat production since 2005, although in reality the world has shown a cumulative shortfall between what we would have produced at the 2005 rate and what was actually produced--despite the highest annual oil prices in history.
This pattern of flat to declining production versus rising oil prices was what we also witnessed in the early stages of the Texas and North Sea production declines.
But the primary problem we face is a long term accelerating rate of decline in net oil exports. For more information on our (Brown & Foucher) work, do a Google Search for Jeffrey Brown + Net Oil Exports.
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