- Paperback: 240 pages
- Publisher: Gollancz; 1st edition (6 Sep 1979)
- Language English
- ISBN-10: 0575027088
- ISBN-13: 978-0575027084
- Product Dimensions: 22.6 x 14.2 x 3 cm
- Average Customer Review: 2.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (1 customer review)
- Amazon Bestsellers Rank: 1,116,037 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Did you know you can trade in your old books for an Amazon.co.uk Gift Card to spend on the things you want? Plus, get an extra £5 Gift Certificate when you trade in books worth £10 or more before June 30, 2012. Visit the Books Trade-In Store for more details. |
Product details |
More About the Author
Tag this product(What's this?)Think of a tag as a keyword or label you consider is strongly related to this product.
Tags will help all customers organise and find favourite items. |
Sell a Digital Version of This Book in the Kindle Store
If you are a publisher or author and hold the digital rights to a book, you can sell a digital version of it in our Kindle Store.
Learn more
Customer Reviews
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful
Format:Paperback
This was essentially futurology - written in 1979 so it's the 30th anniversary. Mildly interesting to see how well Evans did.
The book is not very satisfactory, though it's not easy to state quite why. I *think* it's because Evans has no real methodology or approach; he just chucks in a collection of items which don't have any logical coherence.
He gives a history, such as it is, with the usual suspects, including Turing. (I've been told that none of these pioneering engineer types had ever heard of Turing). He has short term 1980-82, middle term 83-90, and long term (-2000) in three chapters.
Remember at the time he wrote, pocket calculators had only just ousted slide rules; and quartz watches were new. Displays were those glowing red things. Liquid crystals weren't invented. Microsoft isn't mentioned - their software in the Apple II (and III) was high tech. Electronic mail existed, but not Internet- though he got keyboard and TV. Evans thought this could be used for voting - as it can, but not for elections.
Evans considered the Soviet Union (ceased 1991) might be unstable. (When 20% of a population have phones, they can't be kept down, he quotes - he doesn't consider they might assist civil war or invasion). He assumed the US had immense wealth; also that US technology was far ahead - after all, they got to the moon!
I was slightly impressed that he predicted emotional attachment to computers though of programmers - a relatively rare breed. He didn't predict chatrooms, but, influenced by Eliza, thought therapy by program might work.
Some of his guesses seem based on other popular books: he thought 'ultra intelligent machines could prolong life to age 1000' - ie things which might measure blood or neoplasms, and even repair them. I just spent about half an hour trying to connect my PC - the idea of Ultra Intelligent Machines can seem a joke.
He thought self-diagnosis by machine would be easy; I suspect he underestimated the cavernous ignorance of most people, He thought legal decisions might be computerisable and, though Chomsky isn't mentioned, 'natural language' is. Of course, he had no way of estimating 'complexity' or 'interconnectedness' - if he, or anyone else, had, they might guess quite accurately whether such things could happen, and guess when.
Evans thought the working week would reduce, further education would go further, to, say, 25, and retirement ages drop. This seems a middle class view unmediated by awareness of jobs which are not easily mechanisable. (Quite apart from oil shortages etc). He thinks the third world needs education - 'affluence has only sprung up when ignorance has been conquered' - though he only seems to come up with tourism and 'exchange of information' to help them. Education, agriculture, economic planning, and 'climate control' should all help the third world.
So - a mixed bag. Not very impressive! Recommended to anyone trying to predict - this book will give you a feel of where you may well go wrong though conscious or unconscious bias - or simple ignorance.
The book is not very satisfactory, though it's not easy to state quite why. I *think* it's because Evans has no real methodology or approach; he just chucks in a collection of items which don't have any logical coherence.
He gives a history, such as it is, with the usual suspects, including Turing. (I've been told that none of these pioneering engineer types had ever heard of Turing). He has short term 1980-82, middle term 83-90, and long term (-2000) in three chapters.
Remember at the time he wrote, pocket calculators had only just ousted slide rules; and quartz watches were new. Displays were those glowing red things. Liquid crystals weren't invented. Microsoft isn't mentioned - their software in the Apple II (and III) was high tech. Electronic mail existed, but not Internet- though he got keyboard and TV. Evans thought this could be used for voting - as it can, but not for elections.
Evans considered the Soviet Union (ceased 1991) might be unstable. (When 20% of a population have phones, they can't be kept down, he quotes - he doesn't consider they might assist civil war or invasion). He assumed the US had immense wealth; also that US technology was far ahead - after all, they got to the moon!
I was slightly impressed that he predicted emotional attachment to computers though of programmers - a relatively rare breed. He didn't predict chatrooms, but, influenced by Eliza, thought therapy by program might work.
Some of his guesses seem based on other popular books: he thought 'ultra intelligent machines could prolong life to age 1000' - ie things which might measure blood or neoplasms, and even repair them. I just spent about half an hour trying to connect my PC - the idea of Ultra Intelligent Machines can seem a joke.
He thought self-diagnosis by machine would be easy; I suspect he underestimated the cavernous ignorance of most people, He thought legal decisions might be computerisable and, though Chomsky isn't mentioned, 'natural language' is. Of course, he had no way of estimating 'complexity' or 'interconnectedness' - if he, or anyone else, had, they might guess quite accurately whether such things could happen, and guess when.
Evans thought the working week would reduce, further education would go further, to, say, 25, and retirement ages drop. This seems a middle class view unmediated by awareness of jobs which are not easily mechanisable. (Quite apart from oil shortages etc). He thinks the third world needs education - 'affluence has only sprung up when ignorance has been conquered' - though he only seems to come up with tourism and 'exchange of information' to help them. Education, agriculture, economic planning, and 'climate control' should all help the third world.
So - a mixed bag. Not very impressive! Recommended to anyone trying to predict - this book will give you a feel of where you may well go wrong though conscious or unconscious bias - or simple ignorance.
Most Helpful Customer Reviews on Amazon.com (beta)
Amazon.com:
1 review
Attempt to assess the future of microchips
15 July 2010
Format:Paperback
This was essentially futurology - written in 1979 so it's the 30th anniversary. Mildly interesting to see how well Evans did.
The book is not very satisfactory, though it's not easy to state quite why. I *think* it's because Evans has no real methodology or approach; he just chucks in a collection of items which don't have any logical coherence.
He gives a history, such as it is, with the usual suspects, including Turing. (I've been told that none of these pioneering engineer types had ever heard of Turing). He has short term 1980-82, middle term 83-90, and long term (-2000) in three chapters.
Remember at the time he wrote, pocket calculators had only just ousted slide rules; and quartz watches were new. Displays were those glowing red things. Liquid crystals weren't invented. Microsoft isn't mentioned - their software in the Apple II (and III) was high tech. Electronic mail existed, but not Internet- though he got keyboard and TV. Evans thought this could be used for voting - as it can, but not for elections.
Evans considered the Soviet Union (ceased 1991) might be unstable. (When 20% of a population have phones, they can't be kept down, he quotes - he doesn't consider they might assist civil war or invasion). He assumed the US had immense wealth; also that US technology was far ahead - after all, they got to the moon!
I was slightly impressed that he predicted emotional attachment to computers though of programmers - a relatively rare breed. He didn't predict chatrooms, but, influenced by Eliza, thought therapy by program might work.
Some of his guesses seem based on other popular books: he thought 'ultra intelligent machines could prolong life to age 1000' - ie things which might measure blood or neoplasms, and even repair them. I just spent about half an hour trying to connect my PC - the idea of Ultra Intelligent Machines can seem a joke.
He thought self-diagnosis by machine would be easy; I suspect he underestimated the cavernous ignorance of most people, He thought legal decisions might be computerisable and, though Chomsky isn't mentioned, 'natural language' is. Of course, he had no way of estimating 'complexity' or 'interconnectedness' - if he, or anyone else, had, they might guess quite accurately whether such things could happen, and guess when.
Evans thought the working week would reduce, further education would go further, to, say, 25, and retirement ages drop. This seems a middle class view unmediated by awareness of jobs which are not easily mechanisable. (Quite apart from oil shortages etc). He thinks the third world needs education - 'affluence has only sprung up when ignorance has been conquered' - though he only seems to come up with tourism and 'exchange of information' to help them. Education, agriculture, economic planning, and 'climate control' should all help the third world.
So - a mixed bag. Not very impressive! Recommended to anyone trying to predict - this book will give you a feel of where you may well go wrong though conscious or unconscious bias - or simple ignorance.
The book is not very satisfactory, though it's not easy to state quite why. I *think* it's because Evans has no real methodology or approach; he just chucks in a collection of items which don't have any logical coherence.
He gives a history, such as it is, with the usual suspects, including Turing. (I've been told that none of these pioneering engineer types had ever heard of Turing). He has short term 1980-82, middle term 83-90, and long term (-2000) in three chapters.
Remember at the time he wrote, pocket calculators had only just ousted slide rules; and quartz watches were new. Displays were those glowing red things. Liquid crystals weren't invented. Microsoft isn't mentioned - their software in the Apple II (and III) was high tech. Electronic mail existed, but not Internet- though he got keyboard and TV. Evans thought this could be used for voting - as it can, but not for elections.
Evans considered the Soviet Union (ceased 1991) might be unstable. (When 20% of a population have phones, they can't be kept down, he quotes - he doesn't consider they might assist civil war or invasion). He assumed the US had immense wealth; also that US technology was far ahead - after all, they got to the moon!
I was slightly impressed that he predicted emotional attachment to computers though of programmers - a relatively rare breed. He didn't predict chatrooms, but, influenced by Eliza, thought therapy by program might work.
Some of his guesses seem based on other popular books: he thought 'ultra intelligent machines could prolong life to age 1000' - ie things which might measure blood or neoplasms, and even repair them. I just spent about half an hour trying to connect my PC - the idea of Ultra Intelligent Machines can seem a joke.
He thought self-diagnosis by machine would be easy; I suspect he underestimated the cavernous ignorance of most people, He thought legal decisions might be computerisable and, though Chomsky isn't mentioned, 'natural language' is. Of course, he had no way of estimating 'complexity' or 'interconnectedness' - if he, or anyone else, had, they might guess quite accurately whether such things could happen, and guess when.
Evans thought the working week would reduce, further education would go further, to, say, 25, and retirement ages drop. This seems a middle class view unmediated by awareness of jobs which are not easily mechanisable. (Quite apart from oil shortages etc). He thinks the third world needs education - 'affluence has only sprung up when ignorance has been conquered' - though he only seems to come up with tourism and 'exchange of information' to help them. Education, agriculture, economic planning, and 'climate control' should all help the third world.
So - a mixed bag. Not very impressive! Recommended to anyone trying to predict - this book will give you a feel of where you may well go wrong though conscious or unconscious bias - or simple ignorance.
Was this review helpful?
Let us know
Listmania!
Look for similar items by category
Feedback
- Would you like to update product info or give feedback on images?
- I am the Author, and I want to comment on my book.
- I am the Publisher, and I want to comment on this book.
