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The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better: A Penguin eSpecial from Dutton
 
 

The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better: A Penguin eSpecial from Dutton [Kindle Edition]

Tyler Cowen
3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)

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Product Description

Product Description

America is in disarray and our economy is failing us. We have been through the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression, unemployment remains stubbornly high, and talk of a double-dip recession persists. Americans are not pulling the world economy out of its sluggish state -- if anything we are looking to Asia to drive a recovery. Median wages have risen only slowly since the 1970s, and this multi-decade stagnation is not yet over. By contrast, the living standards of earlier generations would double every few decades. The Democratic Party seeks to expand government spending even when the middle class feels squeezed, the public sector doesn’t always perform well, and we have no good plan for paying for forthcoming entitlement spending. To the extent Republicans have a consistent platform, it consists of unrealistic claims about how tax cuts will raise revenue and stimulate economic growth. The Republicans, when they hold power, are often a bigger fiscal disaster than the Democrats. How did we get into this mess? Imagine a tropical island where the citrus and bananas hang from the trees. Low-hanging literal fruit -- you don’t even have to cook the stuff. In a figurative sense, the American economy has enjoyed lots of low-hanging fruit since at least the seventeenth century: free land; immigrant labor; and powerful new technologies. Yet during the last forty years, that low-hanging fruit started disappearing and we started pretending it was still there. We have failed to recognize that we are at a technological plateau and the trees are barer than we would like to think. That’s it. That is what has gone wrong. The problem won’t be solved overnight, but there are reasons to be optimistic. We simply have to recognize the underlying causes of our past prosperity—low hanging fruit—and how we will come upon more of it.

Product details

  • Format: Kindle Edition
  • File Size: 360 KB
  • Print Length: 180 pages
  • Publisher: Dutton Adult (25 Jan 2011)
  • Sold by: Amazon Media EU S.ŕ r.l.
  • Language: English
  • ASIN: B004H0M8QS
  • Text-to-Speech: Enabled
  • X-Ray: Enabled
  • Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #137,867 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
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Customer Reviews

3.8 out of 5 stars
3.8 out of 5 stars
Most Helpful Customer Reviews
6 of 6 people found the following review helpful
1.0 out of 5 stars An American-centric fluff piece 9 Feb 2012
Format:Hardcover
I was very frustrated by reading this book. It gives a very poor representation of the causes of the 'Great Stagnation', essentially blaming the exhaustion of 'low-hanging fruit' from the American economy and referencing very few other causes. In fact, all it does is repeat 'low-hanging fruit' over and over for tens of pages before coming to an extra-ordinarily brief section on a possible solution. This is the fabled solution hinted at in the Title byline - "How America....will (Eventually) Feel Better."

Perhaps the reason you may be looking at this book is to read of inventive or well thought out ideas on how America (and perhaps the world) will get out of its economic strife. If so, you will be bemused to learn that Cowen's only idea (if you can call it an idea) is to value scientists more. That is it. No thoughts on deleveraging, rebalancing economies, increasing education standards, better regulation of banking (and the like), no thoughts how the political situation in America allowed such a housing bubble and a moral-hazard bailing out of the banks. Instead, we should value scientists more. This is a worthy goal, but not a solution, and certainly not one that merits the grandiose reference in the book's title.

If you are looking for a well thought out, well researched and well written book on the causes and solutions to the World's ills, do not buy this book, at any price.

Another review of the book by Howard Davies , the former head of the FSA (British banking regulator) is worth a read. His conclusion: "So, Cowen has clearly described an interesting phenomenon, advanced a partial explanation of it, and identified a frankly daft solution. "
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4 of 5 people found the following review helpful
By The Guardian TOP 100 REVIEWER VINE™ VOICE
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase
Tyler Cowen's `The Great Stagnation' is less a full-length book than an extended essay which attempts to explain current economic and median-income stagnation in the USA, and what might happen in the future. The author's basic idea is that between 1880 and 1970 the USA benefited from an abundance of `low-hanging fruit': almost limitless land resources relative to population; technological breakthroughs like electricity, indoor plumbing, railroads, automobiles, radio, telephones, tape recorders, mass production and the availability of reliably tested pharmaceuticals; and a continuous supply of first-generation immigrant labor to do all the hard jobs at low rates of pay. This party is now over, and the hangover has set in.

Cowen's analysis of historical trends in technological innovation reveals a plateau since the 1970s in the adoption and wide dissemination of useful new technologies: i.e. like in the 1970s we still drive cars powered by gasoline, and use refrigerators and TVs; they're just incrementally improved but not radically different in concept. Now they're made elsewhere in the world by newly industrialised economies which have imitated the industrial practices of the US and Europe, and are imported rather than home-produced. The newer technologies like the internet and cell phones are for communications, and don't need a lot of workers to run them.

The author goes on to analyse the incremental value of increasing spend on education, which he sees as offering diminishing economic returns, and writes an excellent section analysing healthcare spending - again, beyond a certain point doubling spending offers smaller and smaller incremental returns in health benefits. Cowen uses a graph to demonstrate that although every major European country has a total healthcare expenditure per capita of less than half that of the USA, they all have longer life-expectancy and lower infant mortality - so it's not to do with money per se, but how things are done and how the money is used.

The author's fix-it ideas include raising the social esteem in which scientists are held: well, amen to that, but is that really going to make a big difference? The biggest earners in the USA are now in the financial sector. Trading credit default swaps, derivatives and securitised financial products may enrich the tiny part of the workforce concerned with such chimera, but they tend to relatively impoverish everyone else and do not spread wealth around as in the industrial age, when millions of people were employed in designing and making real, useful things which improved people's lives and which everybody wanted. Cowen predicts we might be in for a longer and deeper economic recession before new scientific innovations can renew society again, and that the rate of progress will remain uneven and people might "look back to the current era with a gloss of nostalgia" - hardly an optimistic prognosis.

The text of this hardcover was originally an e-book, printed to take in new audiences and offer a more permanent artefact than an online blog. Despite its shortcomings its 89 pages present punchy, lucid arguments and make for an easy read of a few hours, brevity and clarity among its chief recommendations.
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5.0 out of 5 stars Provocative alternative and sensible analysis 31 Mar 2013
Format:Kindle Edition
Very well written. But well researched and with many useful references. A great alternative to standard mainstream economic analysis of the developed world's problems.
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Popular Highlights

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&quote;
The larger the role of government in the economy, the more the published figures for GDP growth are overstating improvements in our living standard. &quote;
Highlighted by 271 Kindle users
&quote;
If one sentence were to sum up the mechanism driving the Great Stagnation, it is this: Recent and current innovation is more geared to private goods than to public goods. That simple observation ties together the three major macroeconomic events of our time: growing income inequality, stagnant median income, and, as we will see in chapter five, the financial crisis. &quote;
Highlighted by 209 Kindle users
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“Discovering who isn’t producing very much and firing them” has been the biggest productivity gain in the last few years. &quote;
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