The End of Oil: The Decline of the Petroleum Economy and the Rise of a New Energy Order [Paperback]

It is an amazing, eye-opener book, successfully treating interconnected subjects like the oil economy, the power struggles (both economical and military) for secure access to the energy we need, our unsustainable dependance on finite amounts of oil, gas and coal, the tremendous effects on the global climate, the impact of developping nations consumming and producing more and more of this carbon-based source of energy, and what could be done to correct all this mess and shift to a cleaner, more reliable source of energy.

Far from being partisan, this book give you a logical, fact based approach.
You will see the world in a total new way after reading it. You will be shown everyday things in a way you never thought of, and their (political, economical and military) far reaching consequences.

In short, this book concludes that there are no magic answers, but action is better than denial. If we carry on deluding ourselves that we can continue to find new sources of oil, we will have a rude awakening in the not-too-distant future.

For the Jeremy Clarksons of this world, this isn't tree-hugging, it's hard science. I just hope that Mr G W Bush reads it.

The book is extremely well researched and thus provided me with a framework for asking the right questions. It ties together elegantly a mix of real politik, scientific as well as economic analysis. Difficult to put down if you want to understand the many factors that determine the geopolitics of energy

Part 1 sets the scene: we’re all happily consuming based on the belief that oil will continue to flow. Instead Roberts points out that we may have already reached a peak in oil production (if it is true it is a well kept secret!). This decrease in available supply mixed with an increase in demand coming from countries such as China and India is the recipe for an explosive cocktail in terms of the future of the oil price. As oil runs out the transition to a new and ever more demanding energy economy will not necessarily be smooth – blackouts and the war in Iraq are two examples. Hydrogen is a potential solution although its stop and go development is one of the challenges that lie ahead before it can be commercialized.

Part 2 describes the evolution of the forces of supply and demand for energy. It tackles the effects of the growth in China and the new tensions that it will create. The average person in the US today burns 7500 gallons of oil p.a. compared to 800 in China. While one could take comfort from the fact that energy efficiency is increasing, the reality is that we end up consuming more energy – another explosive cocktail? Will the new technologies come to the rescue? Evidence shows that there is still a long way to go. While energy conservation could reduce demand substantially there is not enough political will to make it be a real force in energy politics.

Part 3 brings everything and discusses energy security and the risks that we run from the way the energy economy is currently managed. Gas is seen as a potential solution but will require a staggering US$80bn in investments in the US between 2000 and 2020. Thus every solution needs to deal with a “colossal inertia” described in part 2. These factors vary from the way OPEC is run, the politics of Nigeria and Venezuela to the difficulty of instilling an attitude of energy conservation in consumers. The book though ends on an optimistic note highlighting that for every negative factor trying to protect the current set up there is an equally and opposing force – the example of Iceland investing in a hydrogen only economy leaves a positive note!