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The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review Paperback – 4 Jan. 2007
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- ISBN-100521700809
- ISBN-13978-0521700801
- PublisherCambridge University Press
- Publication date4 Jan. 2007
- LanguageEnglish
- Dimensions16.99 x 4.27 x 24.41 cm
- Print length712 pages
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'The stark prospects of climate change and its mounting economic and human costs are clearly brought out in this searching investigation. What is particularly striking is the identification of ways and means of sharply minimizing these penalties through acting right now, rather than waiting for our lives to be overrun by rapidly advancing adversities. The world would be foolish to neglect this strong but strictly time-bound practical message.' Amartya Sen, recipient of the Nobel Prize for Economics, 1998
'The Stern Review of The Economics of Climate Change provides the most thorough and rigorous analysis to date of the costs and risks of climate change, and the costs and risks of reducing emissions. It makes clear that the question is not whether we can afford to act, but whether we can afford not to act. … And it provides a comprehensive agenda-one which is economically and politically feasible-behind which the entire world can unite in addressing this most important threat to our future well being.' Joseph Stiglitz, recipient of the Nobel Prize for Economics, 2001
' … the world is waiting for a calm, reasonable, carefully argued approach to climate change: Nick Stern and his team have produced one.' Robert M. Solow, recipient of the Nobel Prize for Economics, 1987
'… a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of this issue. ... is an excellent summary of current knowledge of the topic. … presenting excellent case studies and graphices of key issues directly relevant to physical and human geography.' Geography
'I very much welcome The Stern Review, which provides a much needed critical economic analysis of the issues associated with climate change …' Paul Wolfowitz, President of the World Bank
'Nicholas Stern … rose to the challenge admirably. … the Stern report is a landmark publication. It is a wide-reaching report from a man of gravity, and should be taken seriously. … This book is extremely readable, and something that all interested in climate change and its consequences should have.' Journal of Biosocial Science
'The Stern Review of The Economics of Climate Change is a vital step forward in securing an effective global policy on climate change. Led by one of the world's top economists, the Stern Review shows convincingly that the benefits of early global action to mitigate climate change will be far lower than the costs. The report establishes realistic guidelines for action … The Stern Review will play an important role in helping the world to agree on a sensible post-Kyoto policy.' Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and Special Advisor to UN Secretary General
'The Economics of Climate Change sends a very important and timely message: that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the costs. … Congratulations to Sir Nick Stern and his team for producing a landmark review which I have no doubt will strengthen the political will to change of governments around the world.' Claude Mandil, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency
'The scientific evidence of global warming is overwhelming but some commentators and lobby groups have continued to oppose offsetting actions on economic and competitiveness grounds. This comprehensive and authoritative report demolishes their arguments, explaining clearly the complex economics of climate change. It makes plain that we can cut emissions radically at a cost to the economy far less than the economic and human welfare costs which climate change could impose.' Baron Jonathan Adair Turner, Former Director of UK Confederation of British Industry and Economic Advisor to the Sustainable Development Commission
'When the history of the world's response to climate change is written, The Stern Review will be recognized as a turning point. … Sir Nicholas and his team have provided important intellectual leadership as humanity engages with its greatest challenge. … While the details will be debated, the main thrust of the report is clear and compelling - the expected benefits of tackling climate change far outweigh the expected costs.' Cameron Hepburn, Oxford University
'Pay now to fix global warming or risk a worldwide economic depression later … The [Stern] report moves economic discussion of how humanity should deal with global warming to center stage …' USA Today
'The overwhelming message of … [the] Stern review on the economics of climate change is that it is now time to move on from arguing about statistics to taking drastic action at an international level. … Even if Stern is only half right then … the consequence of doing nothing is still so dreadful that it ought not to be contemplated.' Guardian
'[The report's] basic point seems unassailable: failure to act now will exact much greater penalties later on … If people and industries are made to pay heavily for the privilege, they will inevitably be driven to develop cleaner fuels, cars and factories… ' The New York Times
'The Stern review makes two invaluable contributions. The first is that it recasts environmentalism as economics … Stern's second serious contribution is to provide a formula for durable environmentalism, one which binds business and government.' The Times
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Product details
- Publisher : Cambridge University Press (4 Jan. 2007)
- Language : English
- Paperback : 712 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0521700809
- ISBN-13 : 978-0521700801
- Dimensions : 16.99 x 4.27 x 24.41 cm
- Best Sellers Rank: 512,930 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- 488 in Popular Science Weather
- 649 in Global Warming & Ecology
- 704 in Earth Sciences (Books)
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Stern estimated climate change damages of at least 5% of today’s GDP now and forever, rising by a further 2-3% if you include tipping points, another 6% to include non-market damages (value of life and the environment), and another third higher if you adjust for regional inequality. A worst case 20% of GDP.
The headlines:
- global warming or climate change is an economic disaster on the order of the largest world war we have ever staged-- ie on the order of 1/3rd to 40% of world GDP
- the costs of preventing global warming run 1-5% of world GDP in 2050. i.e. if we take strong action against GW, our economy in December 2050 will be about the size it would have otherwise been in December 2048
- the actual chapter on global warming is basically a summary of the existing scientific knowledge and uncertainties as at the point of publication. The rest of the book is economics
- what Stern now admits is that he did not spend enough time worrying about the outside possibilities, ie disaster scenarios of a rise in global temperatures of 5 degrees C. The risk there is the cost to world GDP will be 100%-- ie the end of civilization as we know it
Latham's review is biased. Because he starts from the assumption that GW or climate change is not happening (the 'not warming since 1998' argument is spurious-- see UK Met Office rebuttals, the 1998 date is cherry picked, move the date, the trend is there. And of course 5 of the 7 the hottest years ever recorded are now all since 2000).
So Latham really has nothing substantive to say about the Stern Review, because he fundamentally disagrees with its premise. He cannot engage with the argument.
This is a handy summary of what we knew about climate change when it was published but it is NOT a scientific treatise about climate change (see Sir John Houghton, or David Archer, or Michael Mann for that).
What it is is a study of the costs of climate change, and the costs of abatement (stopping it) and adaptation (doing something about it). Events like Hurricane Sandy (c. $50bn damage) raise real questions about whether we continue to live along vulnerable coasts, and the fate of major coastal cities like New York and London in this new world that we are creating.
Where it has been criticized is its use of a low discount rate (c. 1% real) to discount future costs. However counter arguments, pre 2007 financial crisis, suggesting a 3% real rate would be more appropriate. Here's the problem-- those rates were taken pre financial crisis. Now, rates on real government bonds are negative (ie below expected inflation).
So if 3% was the 'market set' rate then, then -1% would be now. Otherwise the whole argument that we should use 'market rate' is spurious. We are left to pick 3% out of the air as the number the discount rate 'should be'.
But as Stern points out, you cannot use a free market discount rate, where there are alternatives as to where to invest society's resources, on a binary question where there is no alternative Earth to move to.
You can read what William Nordhaus (who subsequently published articles in the New York Review of Books saying that yes, climate change is a real threat and we should do something about it) criticized Stern for, and also Partha Das Gupta's contribution (Stern undervalues the lives of people in 3rd world countries like Bangladesh, who will disproportionately die in all this). Das Gupta also critized Stern for insufficiently addressing the intergenerational equity point (we ruin the world, our grandchildren pay the price).
This book will not convince you if you do not believe in anthropogenic (human caused) climate change.
It just won't.
But dissing such a work on the basis that 'it's premise is wrong. New Labour. Leftist claptrap' simply refuses to engage with what the book actually says.
For the rest of you, who want to know what is in store, and what has to be done to ameliorate (stopping is now impossible) climate change, then you can read this a bit like a War Plan written by the British Government in 1939. It should be noted at that time they ordered 1 million grave markers, they thought that would be the civilian deaths from Nazi German bombing (the actual number of wartime civilian dead was less than 60,000 in the Blitz, V1 & V2 missiles, 'Hellfire Corner' in Kent, etc.). Governments and bureaucracies plan-- even for the unimaginable. That's what they do.
What you have here is a very British thing. A bureaucracy, faced with a task of unimaginable magnitude, a task that will change Western Civilization beyond recognition, beginning the step by step planning for that task. Read James Lovelock's latest for just what we might face in the days to come.
Stern is relatively optimistic, as befits a market liberal economist.
This book will give you a feel for the task ahead, and the costs of continued inaction.
The Labour government policy on the whole subject largely derives from the conclusions and predictions contained within this book.
Unfortunately much of this work was a matter of political opinion and the forecasts contained within reflect this.
A very well presented text with plenty of diagrams, charts and referenced texts. Although first published as recently as 2007 the subject has moved on and many of the affects of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) have been mitigated in the intervening three years by published data and of course the halt of global warming at the level of 1998, at least for the time being.
Those who wish to have a complete grasp of the subject of climate change from the British Labour government's point of view should read The Stern Review. This book is the corner stone of why we have a green taxation policy. For Ed Miliband, British Energy & Climate Change Secretary and Gordon Brown, PM, this will remain a standard text.
Knowledge of this book will assist environmentalists and students of climate change help build the big picture. It is not a definitive text on the subject although it set out to be such in 2007. Time and events have progressed.
Keep an open mind and you may enjoy it.

