The Clash of Civilizations [Paperback]

This book was written as a prophecy about what the author felt would characterise the C21st. Now that we are nearly a decade into the C21st, we have the ability to look back and see if he was right. If yes, then this book was prophetic and its lessons should be learned. If not, then he is wrong, and the book is little more than an airport novel.

On one or two dimensions, Huntingdon has been extraordinarily accurate, predicting that Islamic extremism would become the number one security threat to the West in the C21st. Ominously, he predicted that the West would be driven to attack nations that possessed WMDs in the fear they would pass them on to terrorists. This is the Bush doctrine, written before Bush was even an elected official, never mind President. Equally ominous, he predicted that Islamic radicals would rally to the cause of any Muslim state attacked in such a way, and the influx of foreign insurgents into Iraq confirms this. Interestingly, the author predicts that the Taliban and Al Qaeda would be very prominent in the C21st, yet never actually names the organisations by name (in the case of Al Qaeda because it did not adopt its current name until several years after the book was written).

Huntingdon is slightly inaccurate in his prediction that China would become more bellicose and confrontational. At least so far, China has been warm towards the West, with trade deals and cultural exchanges flourishing. Another weakness of the book is his rather arbitrary definition of societies, and his notion that a "core state" would drive forward its respective civilisation. This is not the case, with supra-national agencies taking the place of "core states".

Overall, the book is highly recommended. However, given its relative age, it would be advisable to buy a more recent book on geopolitics as well, to top up the introduction that this book provides.

Huntington's central thesis is that major conflicts are now and have always been defined by clashes between fundamentally different civilisations rather than between similar nations, and that major conflicts occur on the boundaries between them. His theories apply not only to international conflict (so for example World War II can be seen as a conflict between Eastern and Western European civilisation and between Western and Japanese) but also to internal ones where countries lie on the "fault lines" between civilisations (so the troubles in Yugoslavia are viewed as conflicts between Eastern European and Islamic civilisations and so on). Huntington identifies the scope and causes of conflict, examines the politics of post-colonialism and national identity and surveys many other potential sources of conflict awaiting the civilisations currently competing for resources and prestige. Rather similar to Paul Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" in its breadth and scope, this book has much to say about the nature and causes of conflict. At times Huntington seems a little alarmist about the decline of Western civilisation, but his often strident tone can be ignored and the weight of evidence allowed to speak for itself.

Professor Huntington wrote this book 15 years ago, as an expansion of his thesis on the importance of culture in determining allegiances and identity. His original thesis was first published in "Foreign Affairs" in 1993, not that long after the Soviet Union collapsed, and with it communism as an ideology that provided a structure for the economic relationships within a society. It was an attempt to answer the simply question raised by many a policy wonk and think tank habitué: Now what? (after 50 years of "Cold War"). The book has been widely influential; a minor "Bible" of sorts, and there is enough in it that, like the Bible itself, you can quote a certain passage to support your point of view. The title is a bit provocative, misleading, and even inappropriate, since it has been seized upon by those who which to promote endless war; those who President Eisenhower warned Americans against, the famous military-industrial complex, who have a vested interest in promoting the "clash" aspect. How much better if it had been entitled as the subject to this review, which is indeed the title that Huntington gave to the last section in his book.

Huntington's book was one of the first to elucidate the transition from the bi-polar world of the Cold War to the multi-polar world of today. The author identifies and characterizes the multi-polar areas: the West, Latin America, the Russian or Orthodox area, China, India and the Islamic world. With the rise of other power centers, the influence and dominance of the West has declined, much to the consternation of the supporters of implicit Empire. What is one of the true strengths of this book, and seems to have been missed by so many of the 1-star reviews is that Huntington does not have an exclusive parochial Western point of view; he has a global perspective. He knows that the pompous pundits of the West, who routinely lecture the non-Western areas with their message of: "You will be a better person if you become more like me" is strongly resented in those areas, and he says it again and again: `In addition to Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser degree, Iran, have become modern societies without becoming Western" (p. 77). "It is a rejection of what has been termed the `Westoxification' of non-Western societies. It is a declaration of cultural independence from the West, a proud statement that: `We will be modern but we won't be you'" (p 101). He quotes Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir: "Asian values are universal values. European values are European values (p 109). Or, "What is universalism to the West is imperialism to the rest (p184).

There is much else, from his discussion of "cleft countries"; those that contain two strong cultural influences, such as the Ukraine, to the more provocative speculation about the United States becoming a cleft country, as the percentage of non-Hispanic whites falls below 50%. He presents a compilation of the world's conflicts; those that occur among cultures, and those within a given culture, and the latter predominate. Huntington is no Pollyanna. The essence of the problem of war is rooted in human nature: "...and finally is the ubiquity of conflict. It is human to hate. For self-definition and motivation people need enemies: competitors in business, rivals in achievement, opponents in politics" (p130). Although he does not say it, I'm sure he would concur that the same need for opponents is a dominant factor in academia. As to how that underlying need for conflict translates onto the global stage, consider: "The dangerous clashes of the future are likely to arise from the interaction of Western arrogance, Islamic intolerance and Sinic assertiveness" (p 183).

Nothing is inevitable in Huntington's analysis. He offers positive and prescient advise: "...and, most important, to recognize that Western intervention in the affairs of other civilizations is probably the single most dangerous source of instability and potential global conflict in a multicivilizational world (p 312). And: "This is a truth which some states, particularly the Untied States, will undoubtedly find difficult to accept. This abstention rule that core states abstain from intervention in conflicts in other civilizations is the first requirement of peace in a mulitcivilizational, multipolar world." From the Amen Corner: Amen.

On a personal note, I played the role of "the good American" in a Saudi sit-com, "Tash ma Tash." The episode concerned the impact of the events of 9-11 on Saudi nationals living in the United States. In one scene I was on a sofa, reading a book, as the events of 9-11 unfolded. I chose this book to underscore the cultural conflicts that would be enflamed by that event; I was instructed to cover the cross on the cover with my fingers so that the more conservative elements in Saudi society would not be offended (the cover was of an older edition.) I did, and they weren't. More such shows are needed to promote Huntington's concept of the commonalities of civilization, which we should all be striving for.

I do have reservations about parts of the book, like the map at the beginning that showed the colonies of Angola and Mozambique, as well as South Vietnam being part of the so-called "Free World" in the `60's. And I wish the title was different, but it is an essential book to read for how our thoughts are shaped. Furthermore, Huntington's unheeded advise, as the United States is still looking to "win" in Afghanistan, makes this a 5-star read.

(Note: Review first published at Amazon, USA, on July 05, 2010)